Weeks of threats by Turkish President Erdogan to retake Syria’s Idlib Province by force went extremely poorly on Thursday, when Turkish forces moved into an observation post south of Idlib City, and were immediately hammered by airstrikes from both Russia and Syria.
At least 34 Turkish soldiers were reported killed in this strike, a major number of casualties. Turkey’s Hatay Governor reported casualties were still flowing into his province from Idlib.
Turkey has put thousands of troops in Idlib recently, and Erdogan had promised to reclaim all 10 of the observation posts, while ultimately expelling Syria from Idlib. They negotiated with Russia on getting Syria to surrender, but that failed.
Turkey seemed to be under the assumption that they could overrun Syria’s military, still taxed by a long civil war, with little problem. The presence of Russian troops, however, made this very risky, and Russia seems to be underscoring their willingness to get involved.
That’s either Putin sending a message or the in-theater Russian commander exercising his prerogative to do so – which probably means he expects to be backed up by MoD and Putin – and he probably will be.
Overrun the SAA? Unlikely. The SAA will fallback and let the Turks into a kill zone. Turkey is going to get smashed badly if they keep this BS up.
If the US gives them air cover, then it will be a very different story. If they don’t, they’ll be evacuating Incirlik before you can say falafel.
There is little chance Trump will walk into that trap, I hope …
I think that particular appendage is still a bit sore and throbbing from the pounding it took at Ayn Al Assad. Not sure if the US is ready to stick it back in just yet…
Well that is exciting
Sultan Erdogan’s war criminals just got a lesson and they’ll soon turn on their master.
Good on you Russia showing some balls……
Exactly! I am so sick of russias constant whining. Now they just need to kill some Israelis next time Israel attacks
Finally Russia acts with authority!
None of this makes sense. Who is Turkey trying to protect? It cannot be HTS and their money bags, White Helmets. Those are funded by UK and US, and were the primary reason Turkey cannot peel off garden variety militants. Does Turkey want to put all on line for these militants? If we add all the groups up and multiply by 2 — maximum militant force is 60,000. That, compared to million plus population of Idlib is small potato. So, what is up? Is Turkey afraid that HTS and militants have an ace up their sleeve — create mayhem and make population flee to Turkey. That could be a serious threat. But if the militants are such high gamblers — unwilling to submit to Turkey’s command — as other militants did outside idlib. Turkey’s only choice is to bring in real forces — and take control of Idlib. But if this happens — Turkey will take over local government and control, and militants will no longer provide cover for HTS.
What makes no sense is this high stakes threat to Syria — why this bravado? Who is Turkey trying to impress.
You told us a few days ago that this would blow over. I thought it was all “just noise?”
I sure did. I still cannot see what is in it for Turkey. Until I see some logic, some value in this to someone — I cannot make assumptions. But bodies are piling up, and that creates a new reality. Whatever that is.
Turkey might legitimately fear taking in more refugees, want a place to send current refugees who currently reside in Turkey, also. And Turkey might be doing this to win favour with US and Israel, to balance antagonism from elsewhere.
Yes, Turkey does not want refugees. It has just sent message to EU that it could not hold refugees back. That is all true.
But the refugee issue strikes me as exaggerated when Idlib is concerned.
I thought of the same options — trying to curry favor with US after many rocky patches. But what is in it for US to try to hang on to Idlib? After all, US got the invitation to come and defend Idlib? US very gracefully declined. Mentioning some “nasty terrorists” still there. US would like RUSSIA to start negotiating with HTS aka Al-Qaeda. Russia equally gracefully declined.
As everyone knows, HTS is funded through White Helmets, by both US and UK. So, now that Turkey has been attacked by RUSSIAN forces — Turkey is going to NATO. Tomorrow. Will NATO trigger Article 5? If not, why not?
There is a game going on — just cannot figure it out yet. Is Turkey trying to get out of NATO, by putting on the spot US, EU, and NATO as a whole? Turkey is presumably activating S-400. Funny thing is — under circumstances, there are no complaints from US — so perfect time to do this.
And as all if this is going on — Russia and Turkey are patrolling 10km border demilitarized zone.
There are too many things happening in Turkey — internal politics is part of it. And outside — Israel’s gas pipeline to Greece blocked by Turkey, US sanctioning not just Nord Stream but also, Turk Stream. Turkey’s involvement in Libya, Qatar, Iraq, Pakistan.
I think for Turkey it might be purely a matter of saving face and trying to look tough.
It certainly doesn’t reduce the number of refugees. If you want to stop the refugees, you need to stop the war, that should be blindingly obvious.
I generally am not inclined to think that saving face is worth this risk. Sure, internally, US is doing everything to undo Erdogan. Propping up Davutoglu, the man who minutes after being sworn in as a prime minister, ordered shooting down Russian plane. That was at the time Erdogan was sidelined as a President with ceremonial functions. Davutoglu then proceeded to play games with public opinion, cut a fake visa free deal with Germany and equally fake billions to help refugees. And did not put forward legislation to change presidential powers. Ruling party was split, with Erdogan eventually prevailing by exposing the visa free scam with Germany (conditioned on Kurdistan autonomy), snd billions for refugees that never left EU. Money was paid to NGOs to presumably go into NGO education and health care. But nothing to Turkey for feeding and sheltering refugees. Davutoglu lost in party struggle, snd in May 2016 resigned, and two months later a coup was attempted.
This time around, a ground network of anti-Erdogan politics by Davutoglu resulted in ruling party losing control of Istambul and Ankara. There is an enourmous money spent through NED and others, our taxpayer money that is.
Davutoglu is NATO candidate, and Erdogan has a fight on his hands.
Now putting this internal dynamic into the Western perspective of Idlib. Western mantra — Russia and Assad should not TOUCH Idlib. Goal? Keep HTS and their Western special ops in Idlib — fully in control of assorted militants that came to Idlib from elsewhere. And through UN — HTS controls who eats in Idlib. This situation was to be INCLUDED into peace talks in Geneva, so West has full control if Idlib spokespeople.
Then, a meeting between Syrian and Turkish intelligence bosses occurred in Moscow, shortly afterwards, Russian strike killed CIA asset in Idlib, a Turkish national. Not a peep in Turkey ir elsewhere.
Davutoglu was blowingbWestern trumpet — Idlib must be protected from Syrian and Russian strikes. And when Syria and Russia liberated key highway areas, including safety of Aleppo airport, Turkey is coming in. First in small numbers, according to Russia, to separate militants from HTS — that us Western control. But predictably that was not going to work — HTS and West saw to this that militants were not surrendering their command to Turkey. Which means no group leadership, accepting Turkey commanders. That is not happening.
Davutoglu is now forced to support Erdogan, and will just egg him on for being too soft on Russia and Syria. So, now Erdogan is not soft on Syria at all, threatening all sorts of things.
But here is what Davutoglu PRESUMABLY wants, but is in fact afraid off. So Erdogan is calling his bluff — asking US to get involved, and today, NATO to get involved. What if US does not want to draw the line in sand on terrorist infested Idlib? What if NATO refuses to get involved to defend Turkey from Russia that hit their soldiers. Where would Davutoglu go from there? Cannot accuse Erdogan of recklessness, as he cheered and egged him on?
What if Turkey goes full force into Idlib, and tells militants what to do. Takes over food supply control from HTS and tells UN what to do? What if Turkey resurrects local governments, giving voice to millions of real people, as opposed to militant groups speaking for them? There are many what ifs here.
But first things first — what will NATO do now? Get involved militarily in Syria? Even if they do, NATO will be political hostage to Turkey and its public opinion. Just like US was with Kurds.
In Turkey, opposition to military action grows, which can give Erdogan wiggle room.
So, after NATO decision — whatever it is — Erdogan will be in better shape to pick his course without paying attention to Davutoglu. Heis taking it outside donestic politics.
Reality is, Turkey business depends on Asia. On Russia for energy, China and Russia on economy. And cannot afford Russia as enemy.
Seems like high stakes.
Turkey has not been attacked. Uninvited Turkish forces in Syria have been repelled.
What’s in it for Turkey? It depends what you mean by “Turkey.” If you mean the glory of the future rulers of a great PanTurkic Empire https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/asia-and-africa/middle-eastern-history/pan-turkism
then they have everything to gain from it. If you mean the citizens of the country of Turkey, then they have nothing to gain from it.
If neither side can back down the future is set in stone.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Hopefully the NATO alliance will fall apart on this mad turn of events. A country like Turkey should never have been allowed to join in the first place. NATO to all intents nd purposes should not exist anymore.
Turkey and Syria are well within their rights under international law, to repel the Turkish forces.
I just hope this is not another Iran Iraq war scenario, where the US is using Turkey to try to overthrow Assad.
I know that Russia was invited into Syria, but how does Turkey figure that they can just waltz into another sovereign nation? Other than seeing the USA pull the same crap.
I think you have hit the nail on the head there.
Russia launching lethal airstrikes on the regular armed forces of a NATO member – and Western countries largely go silent. This is all very interesting.
Like an accident on the hiway is interesting…
{munches popcorn}
Turkey is not keeping to the agreement and they are, believe it or not, USA, in Syria where you should not be at all. Syria wants Syrian land and not terrorists. Get it???
Thank God for Russia