Turkey committed heavily to keeping the Idlib Province out of the control of the Syrian government. This was meant to be a staging area for Turkish-backed rebels, but with al-Qaeda having seized much of the province months ago, it’s pretty much a Syria vs. al-Qaeda battle now for these towns.
Turkey has doubled down though, insisting Syria will not be allowed to have Idlib, and risking direct war with both Syria and Russia to make it happen. President Erdogan in particular is threatening military action “everywhere in Syria,” and has given Syria until the end of the month to retreat from Idlib.
In the past, Erdogan has successfully gambled that the Russians would come through with a deal rather than risk a full Turkish invasion of Syria. With the rest of the Syrian War nearly over, however, that may no longer be the case.
Likewise, Erdogan’s bellicosity seems to be greatly emboldened by the US endorsing their operations. If things spiral out of control, however, it isn’t clear that with many Americans still seething at Turkey’s invasion of Syrian Kurdistan the US intends to back them militarily elsewhere in Syria.
The US isn’t backing Erdogan. It is more like misleading him just to hurt him.
As if he does not know that. He is giving US a false high, the “win”, whatever it is . I do not think we will like the outcome, though. Just like we did not like the Kurdish one.
Endless war for Syria, same as Afghanistan? Turkey is a NATO member. No one cares about the population. Hope I am wrong.
Actually, most of Erdogan’s frenemies would love for Turkey to be bled in its own Vietnam.
Turkey is actually getting its ass kicked by the SAA and the Russians in Idlib province. Senior military commander of Turkey-backed al-CIAda affiliate Horas al-Din, Abu Yaqoub Kabul, was recently killed by a targeted Russian air strike. The terrorists are desperately trying to retreat back into Turkey but are being blocked at the border. This will not be one of those endless wars that the USA and Israel crave so much.
i often experience that people who commentate an article on this site, often are more nuanced and precisely state the facts, than the Author and Moderator.
Very nice to hear that Turkey is not having happy success in attempting to dictate to Syria what it can & cannot do on Syrian territory.
I agree. The problem was and remains — Al-Qaeda, and their Western funded White Helmets, that took control over Idlib by making the assorted Islamist groups work for them. Those that still remember, many Islamist militants were given an option to move to Idlib. Having no local ties, they became foot soldiers of Western-propped HTS.
The whole plan to separate these groups from their funding source, US and UK, did not work. Turkey set checkpoints for militants to exit. Instead, Idlib became even more Western money controlled and more aggressive.
Syria started operations, and predictably, Islamist militant groups call for help, and pressure Turkey to let them into Turkey. Their panic works well for UK/US outfit, as it forces Turkey to react.
This time is different. Turkey has sealed any opening, no more lose checkpoints. Militants have now to decide — US/UK money, or accepting what Turkey has to offer. The elimination of CIA and Mi5 assets will continue.
Turkey will make it clear that it cannot protect them forever, and what options are. Once HTS loses control of its soldiers, it will have to make a deal. The bottom line, many will want to go, as staying among locals in peace time is not safe for them. Turkey would prefer many to stay for obvious reasons. Relocating is costly business.
At present, it appears, Idlib is still not taking Turkey seriously, no matter its dramatical appeal to militants, and its heroic stand in their defense.
I agree, this will not last forever.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f62bed9dc035abb1119d4be8d12f3446dae85331bad61b5e4adb930193c7ea91.jpg
Even in Benghazi, Libya they know what President Erdogan stands for.
The poster shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a supporter of ISIS.
It is worth clarifying who exactly is in Idlib.
The media talks continuously about Turkey supported militants. This is inaccurate and misleading. I do not think deliberately misleading but the result of the lack of desire to be thorough and objective.
In Idlib, the highest number of population are inhabitants of the region. Many are not involved in militancy unless pressed. They pay taxes to militants, they supply food, and they are often pressed to have their sons join militants, and daughters marry a militant. Often, boys are smuggled out the area for money. Daughters hidden.
Militants in the area belong to various groups. Many came into Idlib after being beaten by Syrian army, and requested transfer. From the beginning of militant attacks on Syrian Army, the most organized and successful was Al-Qaeda group. The group had influence over other groups, by paying them money. As militants funded by various sources, including Saudi Arabia. Pentagon, CIA — were defeated, only Idlib militants – imbedded into civilian population — remain. Where did they get money? One clear source is the very open funding of White Helmets by both US and UK. White Helmets outfit is part of HTS, former Nusra Front, or Al-Qaeda.
UN, Russia and Turkey all do not negotiate with Al-Qaeda. This is why HTS has signed cooperation agreements with militants, as they can negotiate. Also, militant groups are the main body of foot soldiers, I do not think
that anybody can guess what is HTS strength separately from militants. The source of loyalty is paycheck and the sense of political protection they get from the West . In other words — Us and UK are counting on militants to be their ticket to peace negotiations. They want to essentially control the Idlib province and be the disruptive factor in any attempts of political settlement.
When Turkey and Russia agreed to set up checkpoints, it was for the purpose of giving militant groups a way out — to come under Turkish command and training and special uniforms. CIA/MI5 did their best to discourage militant groups from abandoning Idlib. For one, the groups no longer stay under the command of their own leadership, in fact all groups that went over to Turkey have their leaders replaced. This was used as an incentive to stay in Iib under HTS control, while their leaders received substantial compensation.
There was a case of one group that cut the deal with Turkey, but later returned to Idlib. So the security zone set up for the purposes of Turkish protection by those that left, became murky zone of HTS controlled fighters that even went out of their way to intimidate those that left.
Before Turkish operation a few weeks ago, heads of Turkish and Syrian intelligence met in Moscow. Openly. Whatever the topic was — Idlib was one of them.
What will happen now? It looks like Turkey is addressing THREE audiences. One, domestic. Former Prime Minister, now Erdogan opponent, Davutoglu has been taking advantage of Idlib situation to stir up public opinion against both Syria and Russia for creating tragedy. He is treating all militants as refugees, desperate to get into Turkey. And with already two million refugees, this is a very flammable issue. Erdogan is being fingered as weak, giving in to Syria and Russia. Now, Erdogan has turned the table, and is moving into Idlib to solve the lroblem.
His second audience are assorted militant groups and their families. Now Turkish army has blocked access to Turkey. There will be no freedom of movement as before for the militants. Now, they are facing Syrian offensive and were on a run, losing major cities, transit routes and hundred of villages. Turkey is all that stands between them and destruction. What can now HTS offer? Will HTS try to force them not to turn over command to Turkey? That was easy before — but money is not that important as safety. HTS is counting on Turkey not wanting to take refugees — but if Turkey takes over command of Idlib, what can Western supported outfits do there, other then pack up and leave? HTS has no legitimacy to negotiate on its own.
Third audience is US and UK, the parties involved in Idlib militancy, and through HTS has exerted control over assorted militants. Us and UK provide money for all the militants. The place is, as Aleppo before, the hub of intelligence , special ops, etc. By stepping in, Turkey is signaling that it intends to take over. And if militant groups sign up with Turkey, HTS has no leverage. Unlike last two years of Turkey encouraging non-HTS militants to turn command over, this time, militants are stuck between sealed border — and Syrian advance. They can no longer be sure that Turkey will defend them if they persist in taking HTS orders, and US/UK money. Their families are alarmed. They took great losses, and lost territory. Turkey is here to make surrender look like success. There are many options for militants, one of them Libya. Even Turkish citizenship is in the package. Because militants and their families number only in thousands, as opposed to population of Idlib.
The question is — how far will US and UK go in preventing Turkey from taking over. Will they insist on having an ingoing role in Idlib. On the other hand — it is getting too expensive for ever diminishing returns. This was the situation behind US exodus and abandoning Kurds in all but name.
This is a complex situation. But stage is set — blocked from all sides, militants may try to leverage their value to US and UK, but should they cross Turkey this time, there is always Syrian army ready to go. I do not think Turkey is in mood to protect them, while they dither.
We are living in interesting times.
And to think that it was Putin who tipped off Erdogan of the coup in place to topple him. Putin must have some regrets over that.
Naw. Who else is there to lead Turkey as a more or less independent state?
Supporting Turkey’s independence as Russia does, has a price insofar as independent states pursue their own interests.
When is someone going to shut up that loudmouth Erdogan?
Also, what can Turkey do to Syria that it hasn’t already done through years of trying to overthrow the Syrian government? A full invasion by Turkish forces? If so, that would be their Vietnam.