Baghdadi’s Death Unlikely to End ISIS Insurgency

Baghdadi's involvement in leading ISIS was unclear

While US officials are taking the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as a major victory, analysts are saying it is unlikely that this will spell anything like the end to the ISIS organization, or its insurgency.

It is not immediately apparent who Baghdadi’s successor would be, as little is known publicly about the inner workings of ISIS. His death clearly means a leadership reshuffle, however, and for such groups in the past, that has often meant worsening insurgencies as new leaders try to put their stamp on the organization.

Indeed, with ISIS barely existing in Iraq or Syria anymore,  it is possible that ISIS leadership might come from a different region. ISIS has active affiliates across Asia and Africa and becoming the new hub for the group might give those groups a major shot in the arm.

Ultimately, some are seeing ISIS as potentially reinvigorated by Baghdadi’s death, and even if that doesn’t happen, the individual affiliates are likely to keep plugging away no matter who is in charge.

Author: Jason Ditz

Jason Ditz is news editor of Antiwar.com.