While US officials are taking the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as a major victory, analysts are saying it is unlikely that this will spell anything like the end to the ISIS organization, or its insurgency.
It is not immediately apparent who Baghdadi’s successor would be, as
little is known publicly about the inner workings of ISIS. His death
clearly means a leadership reshuffle, however, and for such groups in
the past, that has often meant worsening insurgencies as new leaders try
to put their stamp on the organization.
Indeed, with ISIS barely existing in Iraq or Syria anymore, it is
possible that ISIS leadership might come from a different region. ISIS
has active affiliates across Asia and Africa and becoming the new hub
for the group might give those groups a major shot in the arm.
Ultimately, some are seeing ISIS as potentially reinvigorated by
Baghdadi’s death, and even if that doesn’t happen, the individual
affiliates are likely to keep plugging away no matter who is in charge.
Baghdadi’s Death Unlikely to End ISIS Insurgency
Baghdadi's involvement in leading ISIS was unclear
Jason Ditz is Senior Editor for Antiwar.com. He has 20 years of experience in foreign policy research and his work has appeared in The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times, and the Detroit Free Press.
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