The Turkish military and its rebel allies are reporting more progress, and are advancing deeper into northern Syria.
Though they previously promised to keep the offensive confined to 30 km
from the border, there is growing concern that they’ll move further
ultimately.
In reaction, the Syrian Army has begun deploying further north
to potentially confront the Turkish advance. Though Syrian state media
did not say where the Syrian troops were going, subsequent reports put them in Kobane and Manbij.
In Aleppo Province, the siege of Kurdish Kobane by ISIS was a major
issue earlier in the war, and being right on the border it’s well within
Turkey’s war goals. Manbij, a bigger and more important city, would
clearly be a high priority for Turkey and its rebels, but falls at least
partially beyond the 30 km safezone, meaning it’s a grey area how far
Turkey will actually go.
Syria had already said they were intending to resist Turkey, but had
suggested they weren’t interested in working with the Kurds, terming
them “agents of Washington.” This seems to have changed, however, with
recent reports that negotiations have been held on a Russian airbase inside Syria.
Though US arms have turned the Kurdish SDF into a substantial faction,
it doesn’t seem likely they could seriously resist a Turkish invasion.
Though the Syrian military is potentially in a better position to slow
them down, it seems inevitable that both sides will want to coordinate
amid this big conflict.
One of the constant lies of the Syria war has been “rebels.”
All sides and factions have “rebels,” and they commonly hyphenate their rebels. We see Kurd-led, Turkish-led, (CIA-led is true but never said) and Hezbollah or Iranian-led. They are just recruited from other than the traditional recruitment base of that leader. So Iran gets men from Afghanistan or Libya, and so does Turkey, and so does Saudi money distributed by the CIA. They are all Muslim guys who know only fighting, recruited into the next war that will have them.
Years ago, when the Arab Spring started, there were Syrians who rebelled against Assad. They are now gone. They were the only actual rebels. They fled, or they now work for Assad as the secular slightly-less-crazy option that controls the family’s home region.
Raging out of control proxy forces, foreign militias, they are about the same as the mercenary companies of the Renaissance Italy, but with far less skill.
When someone says “rebel” today, they are lying.
True. Among the forgotten in the arab spring, were those citizens not seeking regime change, but marching peacefully for reform. The militants, from wherever, and everywhere, hijacked this effort into the bedlam we see today. We witnessed the fbi doing this in civil rights and antiwar marches in the 60s, I’m sure there have been some “refinements”.
Yes, those peaceful protesters were the first casualties. The killers were friends of the US, pushing jihadi craziness they pretended wasn’t al Qaeda, that turned into even worse as ISIS. The US did it again, blundered and still lies about the blunders.
Our media plays that game, and makes everything all about Trump and impeachment, as if the wars haven’t been killing for two decades now, and more.
Good. The Syrian army is who the Kurds should have been working with all along.
The Axis of Resistance gets a new member and NATO gets another thorn in it’s hide.
I expect Russia will intervene diplomatically to avoid any clashes between Syria and Turkey. Having all-out war between Turkey and Syria would force them to intervene militarily and none of the three parties wants that – it would wreck all that Russia has achieved in Syria so far and could lead to WWIII to boot. Don’t forget Turkey is in NATO. Giving the US justification to attack Syria over “attacking a NATO member” would be a bad idea.
Today’s Syria couldn’t do it. They’ll be monitoring this, falling back, and yelling a lot.
Russia won’t have to stop it, because it could not start without Russia, and Russia won’t.
No, you are wrong. Syrian forces and Turkish forces are coordinating. It is outright stupid to think that Turkey, as one of the guarantors’ troika is doing something on its own. Kurds have overreached in their demands, Washington haws loved it — and forever formula was born. Kurds are just strategizing and will give over to Syria places where small YPG groups are controlling Arab populated towns. They are hoping Syria would let them transit territory to Kobane region, so with more troops they could do better.
It will not happen. They will have to surrender and either blend into population or disappear. As they did in Afrin.
There will be none. This is pointless hype by Kurdid and their backers, as well as Washington forever war hopefiulls.
One has to think Assad has only ordered them to hold a particular line, and contain any terrorists also.. not push against the Turks proper. If Assad allows the Kurds to suck him into a war with Turkey, he’s a fool. The Kurds would turn back against him at the drop of a dime.
It seems very hard to believe, but those folks — Turkey, Syria, Iran, Russia — are quite capable of strategizing and executing decisions.
Just as it happened many times before, Afrin and Manbij — if Kurds turn themselves in to Syrian forces, no problem to Turkey. In fact — earlier offers to Kurds were generous. But like around Manbij before when they turned over countryside to Syria, it was done inly when Turkey was marching in. YPG then had to go.
This will be same. Kurds will give over many places to Syria — as they are overstretched and without US help, cannot defend much. This suits Turkey just fine. Turkey does not want to go after YPG too far out, and YPG without US is nothing. Hooefully they will turn over Raqqa.
But the TRANSPARENT aim here is to let Damascus have places to cut iff Turkey from chasing them far south, and then use government controlled territory to STILL stay with US in the South and have a corridor to Kobane.
Russia, Turkey and Syria are on the top if this — and YPG is in danger if being ousted from power in their capital, Kobane. Outside of it, Kurds have very small percentage of population.
They are still waiting. On US sanctikns, European boycott, revolution in Turkey — whatever. Hope’s spring is eternal.