Syrian Foreign Ministry officials indicated that they intend to fight against “invading foreign forces,” in the context of Turkish ground troops crossing the border into NE Syria on Wednesday, but that they don’t intend to negotiate with the Kurdish YPG in the process.
Deputy FM Faisal Maqdad suggested the forces had betrayed Syria with their separatist agenda, and added that Syria wouldn’t provide any foothold for “agents of Washington on Syrian territory.”
Earlier in the war, the Kurdish forces had made inroads in establishing ties with the Assad government. The US, however, vehemently opposed this, and convinced the Kurds to back off. Now, it seems, that door is closed.
Indeed, Maqdad suggested the government blames the Kurdish forces for Turkey’s invasion, saying that the Kurdish forces refused to hand over defense of previous areas threatened by Turkey to the Syrian Army, and are doing it again in the northeast.
The YPG was not openly secessionist in nature, and had previously suggested the goal was some autonomy in a federalized Syria. The US opposed this, however, and discouraged the Kurds from making any of the ties to clarify this matter.
Some reports suggested the YPG was faced with either seeking Assad’s backing, or looking to concede quickly to Turkey. So far, neither appears to be happening, and the Kurds are still talking “all out war” against Turkey.
Though Kurdish politicians suggested earlier this week they might seek ties with Russia, this was likely for the benefit of US officials still arguing for American involvement. If Syria indeed doesn’t intend to engage with them, it’s virtually unthinkable Russia would go behind their back and do so.
The best thing for the Kurds would be for the YPG to disband. The PKK can go back to fighting in Turkey where they have a legit claim on the land. The only claim they have to this land is Might Makes Right and that isn’t going to cut it for long.
One thing I never hear mention of is the “Right to Return” for the 3.6 million refugees. Of course it will be rough considering the Kurds have been demolishing their villages since 2016, which Amnesty International has called a war crime.
But it is curious isn’t it? Why don’t they have the same right to return as most believe the Palestinians do. Is it perhaps the fact that “Right to Return” is so often used by the left, who believes the PKK is on the right track, philosophically that is? That or they just conveniently believe in the right to return, that’s a possibility and I’m sure is true for some possibly even all of them if you think about it. Have you ever met a lefty who tracked down the tribe/nation who’s land they live on just so they can give it back? So apparently there are at least two stipulations to this “right”. 1) That they can’t return to land being taken over by lefties and 2) That they can’t return to any land already belonging to lefties. So what happens when lefties take over the world? No more right to return because everyone is happy happy happy?
I’m at least consistent in the belief that that they should be allowed to return to Israel and this area too and as far as I know my home is on land bought from a tribe so I’m good there too. Although I’ll be honest, I’m not sure how long my principles would last if push came to shove and someone was kicking me out and my family out. I’m too old to work to pay for another one.
As for Turkey? They are hosting two thirds of the worlds refugees; are they supposed to wait until the Kurds demolish or move into and take over every last one of their villages? Then what are they going to do to help these poor people? And why doesn’t ANYONE right, left or center seem to care at all about these people and what they have gone through, first with ISIS and then with the Kurds?
Poor Kurds my shiny metal behind, they took our guns and then they took the land, the Arabs no longer have a land if it’s up to the Kurds. Keep in mind the vast majority of these Kurds are not native to this land at all. Just the opposite, this was 95% Arab land until the Assad Regime accepted these Kurds as refugees themselves and that was done within my lifetime. Even after allowing the refugees in and granting some of them citizenship they still never came close to outnumbering the Arabs.
Oh and think about this. What nation on Earth would want to take in refugees if it means they will eventually take over and kick everyone out? Who’s going to sign up to take in the next round of Kurds or anyone else in a similar situation? And if Turkey gets stuck with the Arab refugees, then you can bet they won’t line up to take in many more and neither will other nations who find themselves in similar situations.
Where is the UN in all of this? Why aren’t they trying to find a way to resettle these refugees back onto their own lands. They can’t possibly be in favor of giving this land to the Kurds and not allowing these Arabs the right to go home can they? And conversely if they are so worried about the Kurds then this would seam like the perfect time to push some weight around at least. Shouldn’t they be the ones condemning this push by Turkey and sanctioning them and threatening to move in the blue helmets to fix this?
Opening ploy by the SAG in the negotiations with the Kurds – that it was a Deputy FM who made the announcement tells you everything you need to know. The Kurds can’t expect as good a deal as they might have got a few years ago, but if the go to Damascus on their knees, there is a deal to be made. It would be similar if the actual FM made the announcement but the Kurds would have to be on their knees and begging. Only if Assad had made the announcement would there have been no hope of a deal.
My best guess FWIW, the Kurds in Syria are going to have to drop any and all of their associations with Israel but might be allowed to keep them with Washington but without any U.S. troops located on Syrian territory.
Actually, I’m starting to suspect that Putin is involved. Like Trump he wants U.S. troops out of Syria and doesn’t want Turkish troops in their place. Perhaps Trump and Putin are doing this to so Trump can unload the SDF/YPG on Syria and then get the hell out of Syria. As for what Erdogan wants, who gives a f**k.
I don’t think Syria or the Russians are going to deal with the YPG. The Kurds made a terrible mistake by allying with the US and Israel five years ago. They had 50 embedded Special Forces trainers and who knows how many CIA and Mossad agents working with them for years. The Syrians don’t trust the YPG and want nothing to do with them. The Russians have made clear that the war between the Kurds and Turkey is not part of their mission in Syria. The Russians are in Syria to fight ISIS and al-Qaeda and to support the legitimate government. Iran might sympathize with the Kurds, but Iran will not act independently of the Syrian government in Syria’s civil war. And Iran has its own problems with its Kurdish population.
Originally, I thought Tulsi Gabbard’s proposal for the US to broker a deal between Assad and the YPG would work. But let’s face it, Trump is incapable of that level of diplomacy and the time for that deal was five years ago. We can’t turn the clock back.
The only way to stop the Turks would be to commit thousands of US
or Russian troops or to engage in an air war with a major regional power. To be effective the air war would have to include bombing bases in Turkey.
I have to grudgingly admit, Trump made the right call on this one. The only thing that might convince Syria to ally with the YPG would be if the Turks invaded beyond the 30 KM “Safe Zone” Edrogan declared. But even then, the Syrians still justifiably regard the YPG as a tool of US and Israeli aggression that seeks to overthrow the Assad regime.
“The Russians are in Syria to make sure they don’t lose their only Mediterranean naval base (Tartus), and because they also picked up a 49-year lease on an air base (Khmeimim) in the deal.”
Fixed, no charge.
Correct. But effectively it’s the same thing as Russia can’t have those things if the Syrian government falls to either insurgents or the US (or Turkey).
Same outcome. Different motive. Getting motive wrong leads to being surprised when actions seem to diverge from that motive.
Russian troops act in what Russia’s ruling class perceives to be its own interest, as do all troops from all countries almost all the time (the word for the tiny percentage of the time that a regime’s troops act otherwise is “mutiny”).
True. But in this case there won’t be any divergence because both sets of goals are co-dependent.
Also, Russia has every reason to fight Islamists as they are a threat to the Russian homeland. So they have that motive as well.
This “Safe Zone” will become a new Idlib, from which Turkey can continue to destabilize Syria, which they view as their imperial property. Assad is shooting his own foot by not working with the Kurds.
Syria will not be engaging Turkey militarily regardless of what this guy says. In fact, what he said is basically an excuse to not engage Turkey.
Russia won’t allow Syria to engage Turkey. Russia will be working behind the scenes to prevent Erdogan from going too far – but Russia doesn’t care about the Kurds, either.
So the Kurds are going to be left hanging.
Tragic. But the writing is not on the wall. Turkey’s influence is far more malignant than that of the Kurds. Assad and Putin aren’t stupid. They just want to make the Kurds sweat and pay a little for their transgressions.
Not so much “sweat and pay” as rather the only logical and proper thing to do: join the rest of the country in fighting American aggression and all their helpers. Autonomy or independence or whatever else they are pursuing may well be a noble objective and all that — but now is not the right time.
Syria does not want the Kurds to take 1/3 of Syria as their own state. Syria also does not want to surrender more territory to Turkey, as they did Hatay Province. Syria wants them both out, and sees Washington as a core problem behind losing territory to either.
Wake up and smell (Turkish) coffee!
This has been rehearsed in Afrin. The Afrin Kurdish enclave was isolated after Turkey, with Russian help, routed ISIS from Turkish border (Jarabulus) to Al-Bab. The corridor prevented any further Kurdish incursion westward. Once US alliwed Kurds to enter Manbij and alliwed ethnic cleansing of Arab pooulation — it was VERY clear to every one that a string of ISIS controlled border towns was going to fall to Kurds, and then they would link up with Afrin. This is why Turkey entered, and this is why Russia helped, and this is why Danascus demured. Damascus must show to Kurdish population that they beling to Syrian state. But Turkey is the only military that could prevent Kurdish expansion. Neither Damascus nor Russia could have done this as US was protecting YPG fighting ISIS. US did not allow Syrian Army come close to mythical SDF, the YPG.
After Afrin became isolated — it would have been logical to reintegrate into Syria. Russia mediated, Syria made offers. At that point Turkey saud: if you do not accept Damascus offer — that means that you want to secede, and we will not allow that. Thus, last chance — remove YOG checkpoints with Syria, allow Syrian government take over Courthouse, and Syrian military border crossings to Turkey. If not, we are entering. And Turkey entered, YPG fled. Kurds have different party in charge there and good relations with Damascus. Occupation will remain until new elections, so YPG cannot return.
Identical process in Kobane region. Offers were made. But YPG has with US help subjugated over one million ‘Arabs from Turkish border along Iraqi borders.
Here is what has been routinely omitted from news. Kurds do not live there with the exception of Kobane. Kurds have small army, but because of US threats — population had to remain obedient to Kurdish commissions. If any rebelled — they were called ISIS. Why do you think our talking heads were predicting resurgent ISIS? It is because they WANTED Kurds to take advantage of any rebellion to ethnically cleanse as many Arabs as possible or incarcerate them as ISIS. That was going to be “resurgence”.
But while Syrian army would be bombed — as they were before, remember — if they put a foot inside mythical SDF area — US cannot do it to Turkey. Now, Turkey is not asking YPG to turn territory over to Syria —- as US cannot appear to withdraw and let Assad win! Turkey also had enough of Kurd smuggling through Turkish territory and will not let ethnic cleansing stand. What was US to do? Go to war with Turkey? Threaten? Tell Turkey that refugees cannot come back home?
This is tightly coordinated with Russia, Iran, Syria AND Iraq — border points to be taken back from Kurds. The talking points they all use — is for different audiences.
There was nobody but Turkey that could dislodge US from Syria.
But watch the concerted lying spewing from media — Turkey will change population balance! Do we think that these people are idiots? That they have no clue that it was Kurds who were given to lord over Syrian Arabs.
Watch drama as Ras Al-Ayn and Tel Abyad towns on the birder are surrounded, and YPG is defending. Defending? Majority population are Arabs!
I saw Reuters — telling that majority are “Arab tribes”. What a suggestive expression. These are not city dwellers like good Kurds, just some nomadic Arab tribes! In those two places there are no tribal migrants — just town dwellers with local government and garbage collection schedule. Media play with our minds, and will continue — making it all look like Kurds are the victims — and no empathy for the Arab population that endured years of occupation.
I am wondering about US decision and exactly how far will Turkey move. But here are some potential reasons.
First — Kurds are a minority in the region US has controlled by air and called it “SDF controlled area”. US knows this is fiction. In fact, most Kurds live clise to Turkish border — and if US intends to keep this entire region — it will have to bring forces to control Euphrates valley and Deir Azzor where NO Kurds live.
That is not an option.
Second — Constitutional Assembly is complete for Syria. With the exception of Idlib, other regions are represented.
US must have seen the numbers. Kurds living across Syria are by far more numerous then Kurds in US controlled area. Even if Kobane Kurds join, they will have no controlling numbers. In short -/ they are too tiny an Army to control Arabs living there and will need US as long as needed for Kurds to settle in Arab lands. Who will pay for this nation building?
And at the same time, these Kurds do not have support from Kurds across the country, and politically are not useful.
There is a math somewhere in there — and none of it good for US staying on.
Certainly can’t blame Syria for this after all the United State supported everybody opposing Assad and Syria .
And more than just the US relationship angle, the Kurdish rebellion was an opportunistic rebellion that tagged on to the Daesh war — which Assad then won in the non-US-occupied parts of Syria without Kurdish assistance.
If Kurdish elements had stood with from the start Assad instead of rebelling in an attempt to take advantage of the situation, they might have been able to end up bargaining for even more autonomy within Syria. But in trying to screw Assad they showed him that he didn’t need their help. So now they’re in no position to dictate terms to him. It’s the other way around.