While the Kurdish YPG control a substantial amount of northeastern
Syria, the upcoming Turkish invasion of that region has been presented
as a regional concern. Yet this could rapidly become a national concern
in war-torn Syria, with everyone looking to take a side.
With little territory of their own left, Syrian rebels are all-in on the Turkish invasion,
seeing that as a chance to make a comeback by cutting deep into
Kurdish-held territory. The Kurdish YPG has never been very close with
the rebels, and a big reason for that is Turkey’s backing of the
rebellion.
On the other side of the equation, the YPG is openly talking about
trying to find someone to “fill the void” of the US in fighting Turkey,
and are considering talks with the Syrian government, and potentially Russia.
Though the US has long spoken for the YPG and presented them as not pro
government. The YPG has long envisioned its endgame as a deal on
autonomy in a federalized Syria. This has always been Russia’s position
as well, meaning this could be more of a fit than the US expected.
“The YPG has long envisioned its endgame as a deal on autonomy in a federalized Syria.”
The Kurds had that.
The US enticed them with promises about an independent nation. Kurds believed that. So did Turkey. Apparently, the Americans themselves never took that seriously.
So long, suckers!..
“…and are considering talks with the Syrian government, and potentially Russia….”
uh, yeah. they’re only about 36 months too late
the traitors
I don’t see Russia backing the Kurds in any useful way (for them.) Russia might be willing to negotiate with Turkey on limiting its operations so that Syria itself isn’t impacted negatively, but that’s about it. Russia has no skin in the game with the Kurds, except maybe to convince them to make a deal with Syria.
But if the Kurds think Russia is going to back them with arms or some sort of military support, I don’t see that happening at all.
As for Syria, there’s not much Assad can do about it if Turkey wants to invade and mess up the Kurds. So even if the Kurds make a deal with Assad, he can’t help them stop Turkey from crushing them. Not without Russian help, and again Russia isn’t going to want to escalate the situation in Syria over the Kurds.
What I wonder is whether Trump can adhere to the pull back of US forces to allow Turkey in. The neocons are going to want to use this to further mess up the situation in Syria in some manner. And Trump is easily manipulated. I don’t know what they might try, but given the history of bad decisions I expect the worst.
One can get headache from the paint by
numbers Syria analysis. For the past many, many years I ask the same question — what rebels? And knowing who financed them and what they morphed into.
Let us start with Turkey and Qatar — who took financed mostly border groups to prevent Syrian Kurds from taking over and linking up with Kurds on the other side of the border. Most if those were Turkmen. Why would Turkey and Qatar care about this border? Turkey always feared US designs in the Middle East, as they involve always control of borders and preventing free regional trade and infrastructure. For Turkey, as Erdogan put it — means being isolated in Anatolia. Turkey wants to be energy hub between Europe and Middle East, and Qatar supports it for its own interests.
When US started arming something called Free Syrian Army, Turkey was concerned with US plans for helping Kurds set up state — and using anti-Assad groups to facilitate the process. As everyone was focusing on Free Syrian Army rebels, Kurds established Assembly and started talking up independent Rojava. But then. clearly with Saudi help, a large number of former self-protection units suddenly morphed into Islamists, and starting controlling parts of territory. But they could not be made to cooperate, and Syrian Army was successful against them. Then, in July 2014, Islamic State was announced, fully blown, straight out of the box. Two things happened.
In Central Syria, Al-Qaeda, then Nusra Front — was taking over lose Islamists and Free Syrian Army. ISIS made inroads into Eastern and Southern regions, gobbling up small Islamist groups. Kurds tried to stay neutral — but ISIS attack on Kobane ended that. YPG came to power by asking for US help. And that was the beginning of fiction called SDF.
Author does not seem to know that SDF does not control the territory marked in the map — SDF. This is merely indication that it is US air controlled territory. Kurds do not have the population or soldiers to control this vast Syrian Arab populated area.
Syrian state was facing Al-Qaeda Islamists, Saudi-sponsored Islamists in Damascus region (Goutha) and several others in Golan Heights region. ISIS pushing from Iraq, and Kurds -/ under SDF label creating its state.
By September 2015 Russia enters Syria. Russia, Turkey and Iran sponsor Astana format talks, and on ground reconciliation processes — peeling off small Islamist groups. Turkey started peeling off former Free Syria Army groups that splintered into hundreds — basically local self-defense. Those people in the border region had tough time — first US came with idea and funding — but did not last. Then came ISIS and kicked them out, and US came with SDF to LIBERATE them from ISIS — just to have them ethnically cleansed. Vast number of refugees come from along Turkish border, Euphrates valley and central Syria where Al-Qaeda took part of Aleppo.
Now, exactly four years later since Russia entered — Constitutional Assembly is ready, and — besides surrounded Idlib — Turkey has collected tens of thousands former militants — all with ax to grind. Kurds were the cause of great displacement ever since YPG with US starting fighting ISIS. Check out Manbij for the extent of ethnic cleansing. With Damascus and Russia liberating mist of Syria, Turkey took on liberating a corridor from ISIS — from Jarabulus to Al -Bab, then kicked out YPG from Afrin. US/SDF planned expansion in the name of fighting ISIS — was stopped in its tracks.
Now, only US controlled area is outside of Syrian controlled — Turkey controlled areas is Syrian territory as spelled out by Turkey. Refugees must return,
As for Russia — it has a minor job of getting Constitutional Assembly called into session, and having UN Geneva process formalized. That means that Kurds are welcome to it — but not claiming anything special. The Assembly already has large Kurdish representation from Syrian cities and Afrin region. The last thing these Kurds want is YPG dominating their agenda.
If YPG is out if power that would solve many problems. US will have nobody to champion. Former SDF area goes back to its Arab population. Kurds from Kobane join the Assembly.
Turkey will wait for a while before hitting them. Kurds have a decision to make. Now they have no leverage — that time has passed. Neither Damascus not Turkey are in mood. A year ago, Russia was interested. Not now. Russia has better things to do.