A week after Yemen’s Houthis called for a truce, Saudi Arabia has announced that they will be joining a “limited” cease-fire covering several areas, including the capital city of Sanaa. Yemeni officials say talks are also ongoing to expand the deal to cover more areas.
The announcement came as a surprise, as the Saudis had not previously indicated they were even considering the proposal, and had spent much of the week launching heavy airstrikes across northern Yemen.
The Houthis have also issued a statement confirming they are halting all drones and missile attacks against the Saudi coalition as part of the deal. The respective announcements sent the price of crude oil down on the markets, capping a down week.
The movement of oil prices seems to be a recognition in the commodities market that the Houthis’ claims to have attacked Saudi oil refineries with drones and their threats to do so again were credible, even though Saudi officials had tried to blame Iran.
When the Houthis initially proposed the truce, they also suggested it could give way to proper peace talks meant to end over 4 years of war in Yemen. There is as yet no indication such talks are lined up, but the US has been pushing the Saudis toward the process as well.
With Houthis, US, and Saudi officials on board, the big obstacle to peace talks may be the Saudi-backed government in Yemen, which has long criticized the idea of negotiations that would end with anything other than them securing absolute control over the entire country. That, and an ongoing separatist movement in the south, which still controls Aden, are likely to make full unification of Yemen a tall order for anyone.
The problem is today not different from what it was in June 2017, when MBS came to power. US snd KSA do not see eye to eye on the end game. KSA insistence on Hadi legitimacy over unitary
KSA and Hadi are staking claim on controlling Yemen, and avoid US control. For Saudi Arabia — and Egypt and Sudan — control of Yemen coast means control of straits, Bab Al Mandeb. US and KSA no longer trust each other with the control. Saudis would prefer access to South, like Al-Mahra, to get pipelines past straits and prevent being blocked in either Gulf or Red Sea. I suspect Saudis and others are not confident in American enforced freedom of navigation.
The only change is — UAE has withdrawn from demands in the South — but various mercenaries in the South with murky financing sources took the UAE banner to battle against Hadi supporters. Once Aden is taken, Saudis are in weaker position. And this a exactly where things stand.
The cease fire is a good step, but who knows what it portends. Because KSA is now weakened — under US pressure to instigate war with Iran, under the pressure domestically for colossal failure, under pressure financially, under pressure to deliver to customers, etc.
i can just say that KSA did not count in their wildest dreams a security failure of such proportions. And that status quo is not possible. Saudis have made a colossal mistake by being feeble and docile in repeating American Houthi=Iran mantra. By doing this, they cut themselves off potentially strong ally, and weakened themselves.
Just a reminder. The first time Houthis sent a missile in the vicinity of Riyadh was in 2017.
A welcome development, if true, which it’s looking like it’s not. Temporary peace can be obtained, sure, but the real question will be justice. That’s what secures actual peace. Can they negotiate a deal that serves to end the conflict and bury the hatchet?
Does this mean the only thing the Saudis respect is Force?