Though President Trump has downplayed the idea of war with Iran over the past couple of days, the actual decision is to be made at a high-profile meeting, either Thursday or Friday depending according to reports.
Trump will be joined by a number of national security officials and other aides, and will be presented with a wide array of options by the Pentagon. Options are said to range from full-scale war to a simple cyberattack.
Gen. Joe Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was very clear about the Pentagon not pushing any specific agenda on this matter, saying the response would be purely a “political judgement.”
Among Trump’s officials, Pompeo is seen as the one pushing hardest for a military response. He’s been in Saudi Arabia meeting with officials there, and probably will come back all the more hawkish.
This response, whatever it will be, will be nominally over Iran attacking Saudi oil refineries with drones. The Iranians denied having done so, and Yemen’s Houthis said it was them, not the Iranians.
Either way, Saudi oil output is virtually back to pre-attack levels as it is, not even a week later, which gives the appearance this whole thing was being hugely overplayed earlier in the week.
Trump has already announced that there will be sanctions against Iran, and those sanctions are set to be announced Friday as well. The timing of the two together could further reduce the pressure to take more extreme measures militarily.
This is becoming pathetic moment for U.S and it’s foreign policy.
U.S. “foreign policy” has never been anything but “pathetic” and pathological.
Best option: Buy oil from Venezuela, Canada & Russia, and BUTT OUT of the Middle East.
When looking for people to oppress and kill, those who are ready willing and able to defend themselves effectively are a poor choice. As stupid as the Trump admin may be, they are too smart to do anything substantive to Iran.
“Among Trump’s officials, Pompeo is seen as the one pushing hardest for a military response. He’s been in Saudi Arabia meeting with officials there, and probably will come back all the more hawkish.”
“I argue with everyone,” Mr. Trump told New York Magazine in a 2018 interview. “Except Pompeo. I don’t think I’ve had an argument with Pompeo.”
This can’t be good.
Might be more prudent to demand that Saudi Arabia end their Yemen War or we’ll attack the Saudis.
Pompeo, the religious nut, bases war with Iran on a few obscure verses in the Bible. He thinks he’s a player, along with Pence and others, in bringing about the second coming of J.C. and Armageddon is the precursor to the second advent in his belief system. You could check all this out on the web if you don’t believe it.
While the actual damage to the Saudi infrastructure may have been overplayed – and how do we know that, do we trust the Saudis on that? – the actual crisis is not.
Once again, what happens when the Houthis do it again – and again Iran gets blamed?
“Saudi oil output is virtually back to pre-attack levels as it is”
More than that, tankers tend to run slow at sea, while the oil they carry is re-sold. Slow transit also keeps down fuel costs on those huge tankers, which savings are all pure profit.
More, there is normally a backlog of loaded tankers parked off Singapore, in a huge natural anchorage, where they await better terms of sale.
More, tanke sr still to be loaded could be run at their higher designed cruise speeds and arrive much earlier, if wanted.
There is a lot of play in the system. It is designed to be so, to the benefit of oil traders.
A few days after the drone strike, the backlog of tankers awaiting loads increased from 2-3 to 5-6. So what? That is well within the play limits of the system. At times there have been scores of tankers anchored off Singapore, visible and counted from space by Google Earth, announced to the public by Ship Tracker websites.
In addition, each major buyer keeps a reserve supply, so as to limit reliance on the top-priced spot market. That play in the system is used against oil traders by major oil consumers. It too is substantial.
Finally, what was struck by drones and/or cruise missiles was not oil. It was sulfur dioxide, removed from crude oil to make it safer to transport and to increase the value of the crude by making it lower in sulfur. The stored sulfur dioxide is used in other chemical processes. The 11 tanks hit were not all full anyway. The strike hit the reserve tanks too. Thus, the Saudis needed only to repair five or six damaged empty tanks, each with a hole in the roof but no fire damage.
That is one of the world’s largest oil refinery and storage complexes. If the strike had been aimed to set off huge fires and be difficult to fix, that would have been easy. Anybody who knew how to target empty sulfur dioxide storage tanks for maximum impact also would have known how to set off fires that would burn for months, and reduce a refinery worth billions to melted slag on the sand. Thus, this strike was a warning, not for its damage itself, but for what they could surely do next if we continue as we have.
Which will we continue, so they will.
Q.E.D.
If the Houthis hit the desalination pipelines and pumps, the Saudis are in a world of hurt. As Scott Ritter said on RT, “they’re scared.”
Desalination plants are sensitive because of their product, but the water they produce does not burn. If hit, it would not take months to put out the fires, and melt the plant to slag. The Saudis are sensitive to loss of them, but as targets they are not as inviting as flammable and explosive oil.
I think the warning sent and received is that the real oil could be set on fire next time, an astounding amount of oil.
I assume the reason to target the desalination plant is to blow up sensitive parts that would be difficult to replace immediately.
I agree it probably would be better to burn a lot of oil, but the problem with that is that drones aren’t really suited to carrying a lot of explosives, so you’d need a lot to ignite every tank.
Also the explosives have to be shaped charges to penetrate the tank plates, which isn’t hard to do, but requires shaping material which adds more weight to the drone and reduces the amount of explosive that can be carried..
I also assume that oil tanks are placed reasonably far apart so that if one catches fire, it doesn’t spread easily to the others. So the Houthis would need a lot of drones with sufficient explosives to actually destroy a lot of tanks.
On the other hand, with enough drones with shaped charges, just putting holes in the walls of the tanks pretty much renders the tanks useless until it can be drained and the plates replaced. But that is mostly just a lot of work and doesn’t necessarily shut down the facility.
I think it makes more sense to target the automation controls of the various components that produce the oil in the first place, such as the desalination components, or secondarily the pumps that move the oil around. Oil by itself is by definition fungible and easily replaced.
Whether drones can do that easily, I don’t know. I also don’t know who easily the drones could be used to target the command and control of the facilities, which is probably where the real benefit would be. Hopefully someone with oil field expertise will analyze the possibilities somewhere on the Internet.
You make some good points.
Refineries do have a distressing tendency to blow up anyway, and then destroy much of themselves in the resulting fires. Michigan suffered a few years ago when a midwestern refinery blew up like that.
The oil storage tanks alone may well not be the best target.
You are also on to something when you suggest combining this with cyber attacks. All the piping and controls could both start (as it did in Michigan) or greatly increase the damage.
For all the care they do take with the oil itself, it is a vast area filled with explosives and high temperatures and piping, with explosive byproduct gas all over.
Someone who knew enough to get the sulfur dioxide might well figure out enough to shatter a refinery complex.
Trump is really stupid but not even he can believe that US can take on and win a war against Iran.
They can’t even handle the Taliban after 18 years who have no money, no friends and no infrastructure, but somehow US can beat Iran that has developed world class weapons in spite of sanctions.
Maybe he really is that stupid.