Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker says that the US is “reviewing” its list of sanctions targets in Lebanon, based on a desire to expand sanctions in the country against individuals who are “aiding and assisting Hezbollah.”
While this has often been proposed in the past, in keeping with US hostility toward Hezbollah, it is wildly problematic, given Hezbollah exists within Lebanon as a perfectly legitimate political party operating within a major coalition.
Hezbollah is, after all, part of the March 8 Alliance, which controls the majority of the seats in parliament. If this allies-of-Hezbollah position is applied politically, it would necessarily mean US sanctions on the entire elected coalition government.
That wouldn’t necessarily be out of keeping with US stated positions, as they’ve threatened Lebanon ahead of virtually every election in recent memory not to vote for the Hezbollah bloc. It would, however, derail recent US interest in trying to build up its influence with the Lebanese government, and alienate the country’s Sunnis, Shi’ites, and Christians in equal measures.
Israel covets Lebanon, and that is that.
The problem for US is that it is currently “on probation”. US offered to train Lebanese Army, and offer was accepted, granted a bit reluctantly. My assessment is that the training came with strings attached, and when anticipated string attached goodies were not accepted — unhappiness ensued. Thus, a bank was sanctioned, and now more sanctions. We are acting as if Lebanon can just make its one third of population, Shia, just disappear.
Lebanon will never be vulnerable again. Once upon a tine US could count on Christians and later Sunnis to keep Shia, less educated and poorer , in check.
Syria changed everything. Christians know full well how US turned the blind eye when anti-Assad “rebels” funded, trained and armed by US committed unspeakable atrocities against defenseless Christian villages. And later, bad ISIS committed atrocities against all — Shia, Palestinians, Christian and disobedient Sunnis.
Lebanon is a home to many refugees that ISIS made flee. Yet, ISIS never went after American occupier in Iraq nor threatened Israel. Note was taken of that. Lebanon’s President, a Christian general, as well as all other groups have been vocal about getting Russian protection. This may be the reason for US displeasure, and reason for Netanyahu’s visit to Russia.
Thing is, Lebanon is the original open-air prison for Palestinian refugees. Eroding its governance or seizing its territory comes with real risks, even if their conventional military strength can’t resist US/Israeli aggression.
The Lebanese military was never a factor. It is Hezbollah that has kept Israel out since 2000 until now. Next time the US will assist Israel in attacking Hezbollah.
And I’m sure any Palestinian camps in Lebanon will get bombed thoroughly in the process, probably by both the US and Israel.
Maybe such a time would be a good time for Russia to roll into Ukraine, or some other place of interest to them. Then again maybe not. I’m not really looking to see all.of Ukraine occupied, but it could be good if Russia protected the eastern part with ethnic Russians. They would most likely cheer the invasion. I have no real understanding of how Ukraine was part of Russia since Catherine the Great, until it was gifted to Ukraine by Breshenev, or was it Brezenski…????
Krushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine as part of some Soviet internal reshuffling that historians aren’t sure of the reason. This according to Stephen Cohen. I assume Ukraine got tossed off when the Soviet Union broke up.
There is nothing “problematic” about it. The goal is to ramp up justification for US involvement in the next Israeli war with Hezbollah. The US has been putting sanctions on Hezbollah for some time now in support of Israel.
As for US interest in building up influence in the Lebanese government, please – the US is going to be *bombing* Lebanon at some point. When push comes to shove, the US will support Israel and the weak Lebanese government will never be a factor. Also, the Pentagon wants payback for the Marine barracks bombing, so they’ll be gung-ho for a new war there – until the body bags start coming back like last time.
Listen very carefully and you can hear Bibi climaxing all the way in Tel Aviv.