With a peace deal all but finalized, and an announcement potentially
days away, President Trump backed out not just of the deal, but the
entire process. The Taliban, unsurprisingly, reacted with anger after eight months of effort went down the tubes.
The Taliban warned primarily that the lack of a deal at this point would
hurt the US more, both tarnishing America’s putation as a negotiator
and exposing Trump’s “anti-peace approach.”
The Taliban further warned that in extending the war, more lives would be lost, including
on America’s side. With Trump centering his justification for scrapping
the talks on a single soldier killed in a bombing, the reality is that
untold additional Americans may be killed as the war continues to drag
on.
Moreover, the war continues to be lost. The Taliban has been winning
battles for months in Afghanistan, and is threatening multiple
provincial capitals this weekend, With no apparent US military plans to
turn the tide of battle, the strategy seems to be to just keep losing
until they decide on something else to do, which will almost certainly
closely resemble the peace deal they could have right now.
“With Trump centering his justification for scrapping the talks on a single soldier killed in a bombing, the reality is that untold additional Americans may be killed as the war continues to drag on.”
Just like John McCain. Can’t have those American soldiers die for nothing so lets stay and let more die for nothing. Maybe that witch daughter of McCain’s will now praise the Donald for being just like daddy.
So tired of all the winning….
Hardly, the process is leading to a more Taliban controlled provincial capitals — less financial sources for government. More reliance on US to finance the gap. It must already cost us more to keep Afghan government afloat.
It is possible that the deal was really not reached, as advertised, but it was of some benefit to both sides to say that it was, as both sides want to believe that the final missing piece will be settled.
It is a negotiating strategy, and it really depends more on which side had more to lose if the final hurdle is not overcome. Seems to me that Taliban wanted scheduled withdrawal within which a political deal was to be reached. Taliban then would have had the power to be generous to Kabul — provided US troops are moving out on schedule. Kabul would not have much incentive to drag its feet — as US withdrawal was a fact, and sooner rather then later, they needed a deal with Taliban.
I think Trump went for broke, thinking surely Taliban would not be a stickler for their last condition and miss such a grand opportunity for being legitimized at Camp David pomp. It was a miscalculation. Taliban knows how it backfired on Palestinians.
They are warriors, not party goers. As very likely US asked them to sign this first installment on withdrawal with “trust me” clause for future withdrawals, Taliban declined the honors.
Whoever committed the attack is almost irrelevant — Taliban was quick to take responsibility. A momentum change, from the negotiating table back to battlefield.
The very first reaction from Washington was telling. We are going to arm the government! Really! As if Kabul is looking towards more battle with Taliban? As if those Government soldiers are looking for a fight with people who are from their home towns and provinces? Those soldiers are deserting already, and the absence of peace would make it a massive phenomena. No more dying for a cause that was dead long time ago.
What I wonder is the possibility of Kabul reaching a deal with Taliban without US. It would have to be a political deal to cement the real power structure, provincial governments power sharing with a weak center. Can that be possible? Yes, if another power or powers in the region step in to fund Kabul during transition, and Taliban gives security guarantees to Kabul. US will have nothing to give to make a difference, and nothing to punish Kabul with.
All that will remain is withdrawal plan.
Unless US finds an endangered minority to protect, and set up base there.
I won’t disclose to RI posters beyond what I’m about to articulate, other than to say having nearly 15,000 US troops in Iran along with some NATO forces makes the Pincer movement against Iran a reality. The withdrawal was always going to be theater.
Israel is attempting to soften up Iran-affiliated in Iraq. I believe theres a US-Turkish sponsored buildup underway.
President Putin and Netanyahu are scheduled to meet in Sochi within days. President Putin made decide to go “nuclear” with Netanyahu and suspend trade with Israel. That may include halting Jewish emigres from traveling between nations.
It might seem a bit radical, but I think Mr. Putin would like to end the Syrian conflict this year. Israel is complicating that and wants Iran next in line for regime change or destruction.
Yes, even the Russians understand sanctions. We may see deportation of individuals linked with Israel NGOs.
The discussions will probably yield no significant changes re iran.
US will be forced back to the negotiating table in a matter months perhaps a year. Taliban knows they’ve won this war for a practical purposes. It’s just a matter of how the US exits Afghanistan whether it’s declaring victory to save face or forced out with tails tucked behind their legs.
https://ericmargolis.com/2019/08/time-to-liberate-afghanistan/
“Contrary to US claims, Taliban was never a terrorist group. I was in Afghanistan and Pakistan when Taliban was created. Civil war in Afghanistan after the Soviets pulled out led to wide scale banditry, rapine and anarchy. A preacher named Mullah Omar, a veteran of the anti-Soviet war, cobbled together a force of ethnic Pashtun (Pathan) fighters and students to attack the bandits, rapists, and opium-producing Communist forces causing mayhem. This rag-tag movement came to be known as ‘talibs,’ or religious students. Thus was born Taliban.”
“Mullah Omar and his Pashtun fighters went on to drive the Communists from Kabul and take most of the country. According to the UN, Taliban eliminated 90% of Afghanistan’s opium production and brought a rough justice to the nation.
The origin of “Taliban” or “the students” has nothing to do with some random student body in Afghanistan joining the tribes in dealing with chais and banditry. In Pakistan, hundreds of religious schools or madrasas were set up by Pakistani authorities, Saudis (money and Wahhabi preachers/teachers) and US various services. After Al-Qaeda initially succeeded in making Soviets pull out, it faltered as Al-Qaeda consisted of mostly Arabs . And Kabul government was doing rather well, still supported by Soviets. So, a Pashtun force was needed, one under the banner of “pure Islam”, aiming to overcome tribal and regional divisions — and impose Islamic rule. Thousands of Afghani refugee youth in Pakistan were drawn in with the promise of education and military benefits. Thousands of Pakistani poor children joined in. It was quite a welfare project. All “students” or Taliban were trained in military skills. A command structure was provided mostly by Pakistan, and Taliban force from the beginning had support from some tribal leaders— mostly those that previously worked with US as “freedom fighters” and worked still with Al-Qaeda. This new force had one job — unite tribes against Kabul government, and take Kabul. Their added appeal was the austerity of Islam — making ordinary people support them, as an expression of disapproval of their tribal leaders. Tribal leaders got the message and accepted Taliban extremism. When Taliban took Kabul, years if progress were rolled back. Women used to go to universities, work and walk without covering face. One woman reached the rank of general. Overnight they had to stay at home, come out only covered, with morality police monitoring the city. Wahhabism then went into extremes, toppling old statues, executing people in public. But Taliban did not control all the tribes, and did not conquer Northern Alliance. Taliban rulers assumed that they had some autonomy and tried to get out of US pipeline deal — offering to Argentina instead. Taliban was in Washington in August 2001, and in September they were accused to have been in cahoots with Al-Qaeda to commit 9/11 terror. The rest of story is known. Once US decided to sort out Afghanistan directly — it did not need former proxies that had many enemies. With slate clean, US orkceeded with occupation.
At this point why would ANYONE think the US would be an honest negotiator and honor agreements and treaties it signs on to? Just like the JCPOA, which took years of work, now we’re seeing 8 months of what should be a simple deal go down the drain because our President is acting like a petulant child again. I want him to be a good President- as I do ALL our Presidents, whether I vote for them or not- but my confidence in Trump is waning more each week that goes by. Not only has he turned his back on his platform of non-intervention, he’s wrecking things when they have a chance to go right for a change. I am proud to have served my country, but at this point if I were still in I’ll be damned if I were going to be the last soldier killed in Afghanistan for NOTHING.