With no indication of any serious negotiations happening in South Yemen, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates issued a joint statement urging a halt to fighting there, and new dialogue.
This statement rings profoundly hollow, however, as Saudi Arabia and the
UAE are not on the sidelines of this fight, but rather are in the thick
of things, and fueling a lot of the fighting with their respective
statements egging the various combatants on.
After all, this isn’t a new fight from unaffiliated factions. This is a
war between the Saudi-dominated government forces, and the UAE-dominated
separatist forces. Effectively, this is a fight between Saudi Arabia
and the UAE.
Yet both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while being defiant about that mere
days ago, are also issuing statements calling for what amounts to
themselves to stop fighting one another.
They have learned well from the masters of doubletalk.
There’ll be a halt to all these wars one way or another. It’s a question of whether the empire decides it’s time to stop and save face or it collapses as result of overextension.
There WAS time when UAE with the help of US private armies was pushing out and assassinated Saudi sponsored Yemen government officials, military, tribal leaders and even politicians. Our private warriors even wrote about it in media — acknowledging that those people they assassinated did not look like terrorists. And this went all the way to fighting at the doors of Hodeidah.
All that was to punish uppity MBS for backing out of his predecessor plan to reinstall “internationally recognized”, translate — US recognized Hadi government over the entire Yemeni territory. US would have helped with “stabilizing”, and essentially gained control over Bab Al-Mandeb Straits. Saudis changed their mind — they wanted control over Hadi and literally kept him in Saudi Arabia. Reason? Saudis under MBS did not trust US would honor its commitments on freedom of international waters in the Straits. Saudis got support from Sudan and Egypt on that issue.
So, US had now UAE as a new ally — and Saudis had a long toad to haul. Having lost most of the South to UAE— Saudis then wanted to reinstate Hadi in what is left of Yemen in Sana’a — that is, force North to capitulate. At least Hadi
had legitimacy. With the control of the North, Saudis were hoping to contest the South. Saudis still had allies there.
But after Kashoggi affair when the top ruling council in Saudi Arabia gave support to MBS — UAE was afraid that it grossly underestimated MBS survival rate, and overestimated US ability to topple him. The result — UAE pull back and stalemate.
Since — UAE was withdrawing, Hodeidah standoff relaxed, and Hadi supporters returning to power in the South.
All if this coincided almost to a minute with sudden US attack on UAE “behavior”. But stalemate prevailed.
Until recently. Now, I believe that this UAE and Saudi fight is not for real — that is it staging a final division of influence in the South — almost assuming that North will regain its independence. This is a process of sorting out who is with whom — and cutting deals. US is alarmed — as it has no one representing its interests.
This is why US is suddenly approaching Houthis! Why? All these years US is starving North by naval blockade of Hodeidah . And then arranging a UN mission to let them eat a little before turning food supplies off again.
It is really a supreme irony that the only way US can keep a foot on Arabian side of Red Sea and the Straits leading into Indian Ocean — is to gain trust of people US starved.
I am almost sure that Saudis and UAE have a deal. But there are local loyalties, militias, regional rulers, etc to deal with. There are at least four former sultanates to be dealt with, as Separatists are not all under one banner.
The pie is being divided, and there will be plenty of food fights.
UAE has more to lose in the West, and it is being leaned on heavily to undercut Saudi interests. Since MBS strengthened his rule — UAE will never do it. So, it will look like a good college try. US wolf satiated — and all sheep accounted for. As the mess in the South is sorted out — North is waiting on the outcome.
It will all be very chaotic, but the shape of things will emerge soon.