Sunday’s border clash between Israeli and Hezbollah forces appears to
have been a one-off affair, with Hezbollah officials saying that this
was the extent of their retaliation for last week’s Israeli drone
attacks.
That said, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that any future Israeli attacks would be met with bigger retaliation, and that Hezbollah was prepared to strike much deeper into Israel.
Though Israeli officials have not said that they intend to launch
further drone strikes in Lebanon, they have downplayed the Sunday clash
as having caused no casualties, and Israeli hawks likely don’t feel
particularly deterred.
On the other hand, Israeli drone attacks seem to be more centered on
Iraq than Lebanon in recent weeks, and the Netanyahu government may seek
to delay the confrontation with Lebanon for the sake of focusing on
Iraq.
Israel couldn’t care less about Iraq. They’re only hitting Iraq as PR moves to assist in demonizing “Iranian influence”. Iraqi Shia militias are zero threat to Israel.
Nothing has changed. What is unclear is whether Netanyahu thinks he can guarantee US involvement in another war with Hezbollah, whether he can use a war now to help him in the Israeli elections, or whether it’s better to put it off for another year until he or his successor does have a guarantee of US direct support.
Keep in mind that Ganz, his opponent in the elections, is a former IDF general and agrees with Netanyahu on matters of national security, including Iran. IIRC, Ganz was the commander of the Israeli forces in the 2006 war with Hezbollah and was also head of the Israeli occupation forces in Lebanon up until 2000. So there won’t be any change in policy regardless of who wins the Israeli election.
The only question is when and how Israel will attack Hezbollah, and whether Israel can get the US to directly involve itself. With Trump in the White House, I can’t see any real problem in Israel getting that war started. Trump’s (alleged) “reluctance” to start a new war before the 2020 elections means nothing. And there’s nothing stopping him from starting it after the 2020 elections, assuming he wins.
Bibi will avoid a confrontation with Hezbollah because they are the one force that can go toe-to-toe with the IDF. A perma-fractured Iraq is a much softer target.