As Syria’s offensive in Idlib Province drew close to the northern border with Turkey, they and the Russian government jointly announced a surprise ceasefire. The ceasefire will go into effect on Saturday morning.
Syrian forces made substantial gains on the main highway, but also
approached the border. It’s not clear why it was decided to make the
ceasefire now, though Russia said it was meant to “stabilize the
situation,” likely referring to civilian displacement.
The displaced have been flocking to one of the big border crossings on Friday, trying to push their way into Turkey.
Turkey, of course, closed the border long ago, and a big reason for
backing rebels in Idlib was to have a place to send the displaced.
Russia’s statement also called on the rebels to use the new ceasefire as
an opportunity to join the peace process. That’s unlikely with
al-Qaeda, though they have lost substantial territory in this last round
of fighting.
Those losses might well inform the rebels, or what’s left of them, going
forward, as they’ll be less able to seriously spark new fights with
Syria, and if they do, they’ll be at risk of getting routed entirely if
things turn bad.
Obviously, the USG is not going to be happy about selling what passes for the top-of-the-line advanced military equipment to a country which is also friendly with and purchasing arms from an avowed adversary, no matter how specious a claim that may be.