For the first time since 2015, the US will be holding direct talks with Yemen’s Houthi movement. The talks are to be held largely in secret in Oman, and US officials are trying to convince Saudi Arabia to take part.
The Obama Administration held some talks with the Houthis back in 2015 trying to sell a ceasefire. The deal never materialized, and the Trump Administration has largely just let the Saudis do whatever in Yemen.
The war has dragged on for years longer than planned, though, and Trump’s support for it has strained his relationship with Congress, particularly as it relates to US-Saudi relations. Some Saudi officials have also been keen on finding a resolution to the Yemen War.
The big obstacle in the past, however, was that while the Houthis are willing to make a power-sharing deal, the Saudi-backed government opposed any talks, and believed that any deal would mean something short of total victory.
It’s not clear what US involvement brings to the table, as Trump has long been averse to taking any position the Saudis are uncomfortable with, and that’s probably going to mean the government remains the challenge.
Who are we going to send to take part in these talks? Pompeo, Bolton? Do the Houthi’s understand total capitulation?
What the US is forced to confront is that the Saudis have lost the war. That’s lost as in ***LOST — GAME OVER***. Which is to say, a victory for Iran. Or at least that’s what this article suggests.
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/august/30/saudi-arabia-acknowledges-defeat-in-yemen-starts-to-sue-for-peace/
If that is the case, the proposed “talks with the US” will consist in the US telling the Houthis — in private — to surrender, or the US will “bomb them back to the stone age”. (A recent AW.C article about Israel bombing Yemen adds an additional wrinkle, though it’s probably just more of Netanyahu’s electioneering.) This is the totally predictable attitude of the Bolton/Pompeo axis. Victory for Iran, which is how a Houthi victory would be seen by the US, is beyond unacceptable.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Doesn’t Trump have enough disasters on his plate already…?????
Whenever US is losing a conflict or a war, then it wants to talk!
The same Saudi government, who along with Israel, opposes talks with Iran. Tehran is a link to Yemen’s Houthis.
When was the last time the Saudis met with the Iran government and Israel was either eavesdropping or planning to kill the discussion?
As long as the Saudis intend to control Yemen’s oil fields, a tripartite meeting and agreements involving Iran-Saudi Arabia-the United States on two pressing issues may never materialize.
We are being told that Saudis object to talks. I have never seen any evidence of that. Even though nothing will come of it — why is it necessary to make it look like Israel is not isolated in the Middle East. Other then MBS sending his younger brother to Washington — we have no idea of Saudi position.
For as long as we have WRONG premise as to the causes, participants’ expectations and any red lines in the end game — we will totally misjudge everything.
One such pearl is the idea that Congress was really motivated by trying to end US involvement in Yemen war. Not any version in Congress sought to end US involvement in war. None. All the concern for starving children did not move them enough to remove US naval blockade of Hodeidah. Enough foolishness.
The whole game in Congress was to press Saudis into accepting US end game, and that meant a proxy or proxies ruling along Yemeni coast to secure US control over Arabian side of Bab Al Mandeb Straits.
US INITIAL position was to present Hadi, an unelected president as legitimate president of unified Yemen. Easier said then done, but at the time Kingdom was run by US favorite, MB Nayaf. And Saudi Arabia was committed to the goal with US military assistance. As Houthis were unwilling to accept staying in common state, they did not want Hadi — nor unity.
Massive bombings ensued, destroying their water infrastructure and agricultural base. This was committed with US knowledge and on US behalf. But things changed when NBN was ousted in a palace coup, and MBS came to power.
It was clear that MBN policy was to change Saudi position from a proxy, into stakeholder. Virulent campaign against MBS started a day after he took power at the end of June 2017. Needless to say, Saudi Arabia was no longer seen as a loyal proxy in securing the coast and Bab Al-Mandeb. The reason is — Saudis no longer trusted US that it would not take advantage of this control — to actually block Saudi Arabia from Asia. Egypt and Sudan thought similarly. Now, NBS had Hadi legitimacy, and good chunk of South — just wanted to deal with the issue of southern secessionists and their demands.
But US repositioned, convinced UAE that MBS was not going go last — and with US provided army of contractors, embarked on eliminating Hadi supporters in the South, giving UAE control of the large swaths of South, advancing to Hodeidah to push Saudis entirely from any portion of Yemeni coast!
This is when battles for Hodeidah started, For Saudis — in a losing position — they had no choice but to win Hodeidah — and consequently still have a lever in the battle for the Straits.
Change came abruptly after Kashoggi murder — when MBS secured support from the ruling Allegiance Council. MBS then took a trip to UAE — with quickly visible consequences. UAE stopped pushing out Hadi supporters, and recently even announced withdrawal from Yemen!
Hadi forces regained former positions, but Southern secessionists are mow making clear that unified state will not happen. It is obvious that deals are coming. Secessionists have ceded back positions in Aden to Hadi people. Saudis and UAE — to US horror — excluded US from the deals about South Yemen future.
The strangest of turns is US inviting Houthis for talks.
All these years Houthis never blamed Saudis for what was done to them — but blamed US. They are sharp people — on their web site a byline is, USA killing Yemeni people. They are not blaming the proxies, as proxies never are given even the dignity to stand up for own interests.
But things have changed — and US now needs the very Houthis to get inserted into Yemen end game. Oman has a British base, or better put a spy operation. Once upon a time, South Yemen was made up of Sultanates, similar to todays Oman, and they were British protectorates. But today, South is ancestral home to many wealthy Saudis — and they invested there. This gives Saudis an edge. And if UAE is given a stake in the solution — Saudis will gain strength.
It is hard to imagine what can be offered to Houthis to allow either US or UK control over their future. The only thing US can offer is to lift blockade and allow unrestricted food supply. Because US has inserted UN food rationing bureaucracy in Hodeidah — and thus has leverage over if they starve or not. Considering the price Houthis paid for being in the middle of multiple proxy wars — they can hardly be shaken by anything.
The process seems to be leading to separation between North and South. I doubt that Shia North would place much trust in US given how hate of anything Shia is at the core of Israeli ethos, and Trump’s support of Israel is thus not a recommendation for Houthis trust in US mediation.
But this is Middle of the Middle East, and striking a bargain does not happen until there is an ounce of expectation that the other side can still give up something.