Secret talks have been ongoing between Israel and the United Arab
Emirates, focused on sharing intelligence against Iran and possibly
military cooperation. The talks have progressed to the point that the US
is now joining the talks too.
Israel and the UAE have some security ties, but don’t have public
relations. That they’re discussing Iran reflects Israel’s long-standing
hostility toward Iran, and the UAE’s close proximity to Iran.
While some are presenting the US joining of the talks as proof they are making progress, a lot isn’t understood about what’s going on, and particularly unclear is what the UAE is trying to work out.
The UAE seems to be trying to balance multiple interests, as they’ve
tried to talk to Iran about maritime security in recent days, and seem
not to be looking to pick fights with them. That’s in stark contrast to
Israel, for whom picking fights with Iran is the centerpiece of decades
of foreign policy.
It’s clear that the UAE has an interest in keeping the US happy, and
that probably requires keeping Israel at lease sort of placated in this
regard. So while they aren’t trying to start anything against Iran
they’re trying to walk the tightrope of balancing both sides to keep
everyone satisfied.
Anti-Iranian talks without the US being involved? Surprised we don’t levy sanctions for not being invited originally.
What talks? Mire like threats to UAE. There is nothing US, UK or Israel can do to Saudis. Not short term, except using UAE. UAE was used handsomely after MBS was elevated to Crown Prince. US mercenaries were assigned to UAE to sweep through South Yemen, on to Mocha. UAE was involved in kidnapping of Lebanese prime minister in Saudi Arabia, as he was misled into believing that he was invited by Saudi court. From the airport he was spirited off to UAE, back to Saudi territory, where he gave the weirdest interview ever. But after Lebanon was united — Hezbollah, Christians and Hariri Sunnis — and no anti-Shia clash happened, the objective failed and he was sent home. Then UAE pulled a fast one against former Yemeni president Saleh. He and his former army supported Huthis in Sana’a. With the mediation from Russia, Saleh, Huthis and MBS cut a deal. Saleh was then let know that UAE is holding his son a hostage, and will be killed unless he pulls out of the deal. He pulled out and tried run away from Huthis he crosses, by running to UAE held territory. He was intercepted and killed. Saleh’s army remained loyal to Houthis. Fate of his son unknown. Why were UAE doing all this? Their ruling elite made an assumption that MBS was going to be deposed and that US was not going to let him govern. Kashoggi was the watershed. Saudi top ruling council did not blink. MBS was given power to clean up intelligence and received full support. First trip MBS undertook post-Kashoggi was to UAE. Now, UAE was under pressure regionally — and caved in to Saudis. Offensives in the South Yemen stopped, US started accusing UAE of atrocities and a strange missile delivery to Libya — assorted, standard we-are-unhappy-with-you moves. But UAE went further, recognized Assad’s government by reopening embassy, refused to point finger at Iran in tanker attacks, and announced pullout from Yemen, which gave practically victory to Saudis. Of course, some Martians were found to stir up trouble in Aden — a key port. Now, Saudis, UAE. are talking about putting secessionists in power. Which would disappoint US/UK Martians/Al-Qaeda/ISIS.
What is now Israel to do?
A/ pretend that UAE is the ally against Iran
B/ get US to do a dirty work of pressuring UAE
UAE is vulnerable because of many of its key assets are in NY and London, and the “Emirates” brand is everywhere from airlines to tennis tournaments. But, there is a but — UAE dies not have any more pull on Saudis, UAE have large trade with Iran, and no neighbor — I mean ZERO, is interested in fighting Iran. Iraq, Bahrein, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar — all out. Saudis are keeping quiet, most they did was repeat, ad verbatim, Pompeo’s narrative in bad Iran, and it sounded like Saudis are talking as US friend, and US has a beef with Iran.
So what is left? Prevent UAE from cutting deal with Saudis and separatists kn Yemen. This will bring Houthis wholehearted approval, end game. If US and Israel cannot stop that by leaning on UAE — not many options left. US will not be the leader in attacking Iran, but in the end of ends — if Israel pulls all if its levers here, Trump may have to cave in.
UAE are in danger of loosing investments bug time, but what is the point of leaning kn them if they no longer have leverage? I guess sheer vindictiveness. All is pretty much quiet in the Middle East — all appears frozen with exception of small stuff skirmishes in Syria.
It all now is in waiting mode. What will US do?
What talks? Mire like threats to UAE. There is nothing US, UK or Israel can do to Saudis. Not short term, except using UAE. UAE was used handsomely after MBS was elevated to Crown Prince. US mercenaries were assigned to UAE to sweep through South Yemen, on to Mocha. UAE was involved in kidnapping of Lebanese prime minister in Saudi Arabia, as he was misled into believing that he was invited by Saudi court. From the airport he was spirited off to UAE, back to Saudi territory, where he gave the weirdest interview ever. But after Lebanon was united — Hezbollah, Christians and Hariri Sunnis — and no anti-Shia clash happened, the objective failed and he was sent home. Then UAE pulled a fast one against former Yemeni president Saleh. He and his former army supported Huthis in Sana’a. With the mediation from Russia, Saleh, Huthis and MBS cut a deal. Saleh was then let know that UAE is holding his son a hostage, and will be killed unless he pulls out of the deal. He pulled out and tried run away from Huthis he crosses, by running to UAE held territory. He was intercepted and killed. Saleh’s army remained loyal to Houthis. Fate of his son unknown. Why were UAE doing all this? Their ruling elite made an assumption that MBS was going to be deposed and that US was not going to let him govern. Kashoggi was the watershed. Saudi top ruling council did not blink. MBS was given power to clean up intelligence and received full support. First trip MBS undertook post-Kashoggi was to UAE. Now, UAE was under pressure regionally — and caved in to Saudis. Offensives in the South Yemen stopped, US started accusing UAE of atrocities and a strange missile delivery to Libya — assorted, standard we-are-unhappy-with-you moves. But UAE went further, recognized Assad’s government by reopening embassy, refused to point finger at Iran in tanker attacks, and announced pullout from Yemen, which gave practically victory to Saudis. Of course, some Martians were found to stir up trouble in Aden — a key port. Now, Saudis, UAE. are talking about putting secessionists in power. Which would disappoint US/UK Martians/Al-Qaeda/ISIS.
What is now Israel to do?
A/ pretend that UAE is the ally against Iran
B/ get US to do a dirty work of pressuring UAE
UAE is vulnerable because of many of its key assets are in NY and London, and the “Emirates” brand is everywhere from airlines to tennis tournaments. But, there is a but — UAE dies not have any more pull on Saudis, UAE have large trade with Iran, and no neighbor — I mean ZERO, is interested in fighting Iran. Iraq, Bahrein, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar — all out. Saudis are keeping quiet, most they did was repeat, ad verbatim, Pompeo’s narrative in bad Iran, and it sounded like Saudis are talking as US friend, and US has a beef with Iran.
So what is left? Prevent UAE from cutting deal with Saudis and separatists kn Yemen. This will bring Houthis wholehearted approval, end game. If US and Israel cannot stop that by leaning on UAE — not many options left. US will not be the leader in attacking Iran, but in the end of ends — if Israel pulls all if its levers here, Trump may have to cave in.
UAE are in danger of loosing investments bug time, but what is the point of leaning kn them if they no longer have leverage? I guess sheer vindictiveness. All is pretty much quiet in the Middle East — all appears frozen with exception of small stuff skirmishes in Syria.
It all now is in waiting mode. What will US do?
What’s the obsession with Iran? We’ve overthrown their democratically elected secular government, we’ve sanctioned them, we’ve shot down a commercial airliner killing almost 300 people (for which GHW Bush famously said he’d never apologize,) and we keep prodding them. It never ends well for bullies.