Speaking to reporters over the weekend, Defense Secretary Mark Esper
claimed that he believes there is “rising support” for the US-led naval
fleet in the Strait of Hormuz
The US has been pushing that plan for over a month,
on the idea that the US would get access to a large fleet to confront
Iran, and would only have to contribute about 10-20% of the fleet
themselves. So far they’ve gotten no commitments to join the fleet.
Despite Esper’s optimism, the US still has no commitments to join the
fleet, though he suggested that some countries might sign up soon,
citing 30 nations attending a meeting last week in Florida to talk about
it.
Australia seems like a likely candidate, though why Australia would join
the US fleet and not the British alternative is unclear. Even then,
most nations have flat out rejected the scheme, and Australia’s
willingness to consider it at all is still something.
For most nations, there just isn’t a high priority on this, as the
Strait is open, and the only nations having any problem, the US and
Britain, are the ones openly picking fights with Iran. Many nations see
staying out of this as the path of least resistance.
So, how are we coercing other countries into this “rising support”?
Still irrelevant. Trump wants a “coalition” – and he’ll get one with Britain and probably at least one other nation. Beyond that, he’ll “go it alone” just like the US always does. The end goal is war and some minor problems like getting someone else involved isn’t going to stop it.
The bottom line is everyone wants to avoid being blamed for a new war – including Trump. That doesn’t mean they don’t want one or won’t start one.
People should be able to see through this by now.
US Navy is desperate to drag other nations in because it knows it would face a naval battle unlike any I have ever been able to find (Certainly open to scenarios others know). It will be nothing like Operation Praying Mantis in the 80s where we sank half the Iranian navy in a day. But that was conventional naval warfare, now they face an asymmetric enemy, who they will have to fight in a narrow chokepoint while trying to protect oil tankers. The MC2002 war game showed us what would happen in this situation: a massive failure of a blue water navy against an assymetric foe. There are some interesting countermeasures developed over the years, like lasers, and medium sized Littoral ships made with this situation in mind. But there is no way to test them in the chaos of an actual battle in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran as well knows the results of MC2002, and has constructed their Navy with it as the center of its strategy. No doubt thousands of Iranians would die. But they could be even less successful than General van Riper, who sank 16 ships in that war game, including an aircraft carrier, killing or injuring 20,000 sailors… imagine that they sink just a single US warship, not even a capital ship, but a destroyer, killing 150-350 sailors. How would Donny react? Nukes? Conscription for a massive invasion? THe fact is, this would hardly be the only thing going on if direct armed conflict with Iran began. An utter catastrophe. This war must not be fought.
“Iran as well knows the results of MC2002, and has constructed their Navy with it as the center of its strategy”
Which, if true, means that the US knows the center of Iran’s naval strategy. And probably hasn’t been idle since 2002 itself.
The only way we’ll know how a naval engagement there would work out is for one to happen. So I hope we never do find out.
Which, if true, means that the US knows the center of Iran’s naval strategy. And probably hasn’t been idle since 2002 itself.
…
Of course, I said precisely that, in mentioning the countermeasures that have been developed, with that laser and the LC ships as examples. You can see them testing these things on youtube. They are always tested against a single, slow moving target that is not piloted by pissed off Iranians. I have no doubt that many Iranians will die, but what is the terrifying truth is that our countermeasures are woefully inadequate for a full scale battle in such a narrow waterway. The US Navy knows this. That is why they are desperately attempting to get other nations’ navies in the area so they are dragged into any fight. Fortunately, no one has agreed… yet
The only way we’ll know how a naval engagement there would work out is for one to happen. So I hope we never do find out.
…
Indeed, it would be a naval engagement unlike history has ever seen, AFAIK. That doesn’t mean we can not analyze the strategies and makeups of the navies. Can you at least acknowledge that the US Navy would face an immediate and serious threat to both oil tankers and themselves, a threat that is augmented by the relative size of the crafts, their relative numbers, and their relative maneuverability?
However, I did point out that Iran, even with its well-honed asymmetric strategy and swarm tactics, need only be a fraction as successful as van Riper for this conflict to escalate uncontrollably. So yeah, may cooler heads prevail today, tomorrow, and always.
“Can you at least acknowledge that the US Navy would face an immediate and serious threat to both oil tankers and themselves, a threat that is augmented by the relative size of the crafts, their relative numbers, and their relative maneuverability?”
When it comes to modern naval warfare, I can’t acknowledge anything like that because I don’t have good knowledge of the state of either the US Navy or the Iranian Navy, nor am I privy to the plans of either. I can make reasonable predictions concerning ground warfare, but I’m lost at sea 🙂
Fair enough.