Syrian state media has reported that they have reached a conditional ceasefire deal in the Idlib Province, a move which would end about three months of back and forth offensives between the military and al-Qaeda-dominated rebels.
The government says the ceasefire is conditioned on the rebels moving 20
kilometers back, away from the previously-established demilitarized
zone. It’s not clear from early reports if the deal explicitly includes
al-Qaeda, or just some of the other Islamist rebel groups.
That confusion could be a big problem, as historically leaving al-Qaeda
out of such deals has allowed opponents of the government to accuse them
of “violations,” since ceasefires kept with only signatory parties
don’t actually end all the fighting in the country.
That’s likely where this is going as well, with the Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights saying there is “no sign of a ceasefire” yet, even
though it’s not clear when the deal is intended to go into effect.
Syrian Observatory would be out of business once Al-Qaeda is dealt with. Thus, no peace with Al-Qaeda in his mind (yes, Observatory is just one person) means no peace at all. It is because in Al-Qaeda contingent are British White Helmets and other inserted political types. They are waiting for their moment — to carve out a special status within Syria, to have forever a part of Syria to be internationally managed, something they attempted with Mosul. But the longer Idlib stays under encirclement, and the longer it is ignored — thr more chances that the groups HTS, or Al-Qaeda has under control, will try to split away and cut separate deal. Observatory can moan about not including Al-Qaeda into negotiation, but why would Syria negotiate with UK? To establish “autonomy” for foreign-aligned groups? The negotiations will happen only with separate groups that are geographically in a position to take advantage of Damascus offer. Many want to remain under Turkish controlled militia. What remains to be seen is HTS reaction. In the past, it would attach groups that tried to split, and increase its control. But now, I am not sure that HRS has much to offer to their associated hopeful islamist groups. No sign of autonomy, dwindling supplies, low morale. It is too early to include HTS until it is ready to lay down arms. For a while now, HRS did not organize any offensive or tried to break out. It remains to be seen if they can still punish those that cut separate deals.
Good strategy for Syria / Russia… continue shrinking terrorist territory with a combo of war and diplomacy. That will limit Al Qaeda etc’s ability to infiltrate other parts of Syria and eventually make clear to everyone in Idlib that Syria will move forward without a serious threat to stability, maybe with an open-air prison for the few who insist on not recognizing the government.
If everyone else steps back, that leaves al Qaeda exposed to be smashed by the Syrian forces. Everyone likes that, except al Qaeda and its Western friends.