Elaborating on recent reports that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were
removing some of their troops from Yemen, officials now confirm that the
decision was made as part of a strategic shift, and after a consultation with Saudi Arabia.
Some officials are presenting this as a “peace-first” approach, though it is more correctly being sold as “war by other means”
by other officials, who say that the priority is to reduce the amount
of Emirati troops in favor of UAE-backed militias in the war.
Officials say they have “tactical reasons”
for redeploying the troops. Previous reports indicate that the UAE
wanted more troops at home because of ongoing US-Iran tension in the
Persian Gulf.
The UAE has long been amassing a huge militia army
across Yemen, however, and has clearly been trying to position them
either in direct positions of regional power, or in places where they
could contest control of parts of Yemen. The UAE has also shown intense
interest in the island of Socotra, where the Yemen War hasn’t really
taken place, but which is strategically valuable to UAE ambitions in the
region and which they’d very much like to come out of the war with de
facto control over.
Still, this transition apparently came with a consultation with the
Saudis, and therefore at least an implied Saudi blessing. That is
surprising, as while the two nations are allies, the Saudis and UAE are
backing very different Yemeni forces who are almost certain to clash if
the ongoing war ever ends.
Militias / mercenaries tend to be skilled at killing but not good at following ethical standards… and there is no clear chain of command and accountability. So the UAE’s dubious goals in Yemen will likely now be advanced through even more dubious methods than we’ve seen so far.
No one is leaving, just someone else is paying the mercenaries that are there. My bet, some of my money.