It takes a lot of careful study to even approach understanding the Trump Administration’s position on Iran, and even then that position could change wildly at any moment, with any speech. For the European allies President Trump expects to be on the same page as him, this is an exercise in futility.
As Europe tries to figure everything out, President Trump is making it harder, seemingly walking a tightrope on the issue of Iran, at one moment suggesting there “is always a chance” of war with Iran, and then calling for negotiations, even as British officials point out that Trump seems to have “no visible plan” to convince Iran into talks, nor is he in any way setting up a diplomatic process that would allow these talks to begin.
Instead, as on Thursday, he publicly claimed Iran wants to talk, saying “if they want to talk, that’s fine. We’ll talk.” French President Macron called these words “very important.” Yet analysts see this as a hollow offer, saying Trump’s offers to negotiate are little more than a show.
Yet if it’s a show for Iran’s sake, it isn’t working. Iranian officials continue to dismiss the idea of further talks, and see little merit in any engagement with the US after President Trump dishonored the P5+1 nuclear deal. They see everything he’s doing as “psychological warfare,” and it is perhaps not unfair to see it that way.
Macron’s own attempt to court Iran for diplomacy, presumably on the basis of his joint comments with Trump, were hastily rebuffed. Iranian officials argued that expanding talks beyond the scope of the nuclear deal would only raise distrust, particularly since the nuclear deal itself isn’t saved from the US pullout.
And if the show of diplomacy is for the sake of European countries, it’s been no more successful, as those allies can’t make heads or tails of what the administration’s actual intentions are. Though this has allowed President Trump to avoid committing himself to either war or diplomacy, it has also destabilized the situation greatly and risks any number of unanticipated problems.
Macron is useless. I’m surprised he’s held out this long.
By now Trump’s style of negotiating or trying to negotiate with foreign powers is well known. I call it the “North Korea Style”. You begin with bluster and threats of annihilation. When that produces zero results you make a 180 degree turn and offer peace/talks. When that does not produce any results you are stuck with both and it becomes unpredictable which of the two is in Trump’s mind/desire at any given moment.
Trump’s approach to Iran is “North Korea Style.”
“North Korea Style”….more like “used car style”….this baby has low miles, it’s the best economy car ever, plus, it outperforms most race cars, people say. It’s also the safest car ever in history, no one has ever been hurt in one. No style, just BS on top of other BS. No deals.
What I would hate to see, is European leaders start to follow Trump and blame Iran for this situation.
Trump is totally unpredictable, and I personally think that he is bereft of empathy towards others and would be capable of launching a war simply to satisfy a personal whim.
Reagan was anything but restrained in his tenure from 1981 to 1989. Read up on the Heritage Foundation and their plans to target nine nations for “rollback” – regime change – Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Iran, Laos, Libya, Nicaragua and Vietnam.
Pure distraction. Trump either knows what is going to happen (re the attack on Hezbollah) so he’s intentionally distracting, or he simply has been cut out of the loop on the war planning, so he will be forced to react as Israel and the neocons want when the situation is created by Israel.
The latter frankly is the greater possibility in my view. This guy is the most easily led President – as long as you don’t confront him directly, due to his ego – in history.
The fact that Iran is being talked up when the real target has to be Hezbollah is proof that this is all distraction since no war with Iran can happen until Hezbollah is degraded. Israel can not afford it.
And the double advantage is that once the war with Hezbollah is started, it can be blamed on Iran as Hezbollah is claimed to be an “Iranian proxy.” This is a win-win for Israel and the neocons, and is the main reason Trump will be convinced to join in the attack.
What you call “seemingly walking a tightrope” on Iran, I call having no strategic outlook whatsoever, and strictly ‘shooting from the hip’ on every decision based on how the wind was blowing that morning, and whatever ‘Fox & Friends’ had on its agenda.
You mean whatever Wall Street Journal has on its mind. Defending Trump on Russiagate, offering some symbolic “independent” tripe, while lecturing Trump on foreign policy. Stern lecturing, along with experts for every occasion.
Maybe our idiot poodle allies should stop supporting American war crimes altogether. Just a thought.
Iran continues to play this one smart, standing their ground and refusing to take any bait from Trump and Bolton’s bad cop, worse cop cabaret. Let the bastards make fools of themselves in front of Europe while they increasingly look to China for stability. Iran is one cagey card player and Trump doesn’t know Blackjack from Go Fish.
“And if the show of diplomacy is for the sake of European countries, it’s been no more successful, as those allies can’t make heads or tails of what the administration’s actual intentions are”
TRUMP HIMSELF IS CONFUSED.WHY BLLAME EUROPEANS.
Europe indeed is deeply confused… they’d have to be to continue talking about any kind of alliance with the US.
Who can possible know what Trump is going to do. Does Trump know what he is going to do? And this talk of hitting Hezbollah sounds contrived. Does anyone think Hezbollah guys are going to pack some big stadium to assist those who would want to target them?? Multi fourth gen targeting won’t be fun and effortless as it may well bring state actors into the fray. Add the Israeli election and the legal trouble of Netanyahu and it’s quite a unmanageable bit of prognostication. It’s the type of muddle that can render unprecedented results for historians to pick at for decades.. How much collateral damage will hitting Hesbollah cause. Will all the states where Hesbollah has a presence just sit by as their attackers feel around for weak spots… Some people just can’t seem to quit while they are ahead.