While US reports on Iran have been centered almost exclusively on claims
from a handful of Trump Administration officials of “Iranian threats,”
the situation inside Iran is much different, with the US threats of war
seeming little more than background noise.
Of course, the US has been threatening to attack Iran on and off for a
generation, so it’s not surprising many don’t take it seriously. But the
reality is that most have more immediate concerns, related to Iran’s economic struggles.
Decades of US sanctions have weighed heavily on Iran’s economy, and
hopes of relief from the P5+1 nuclear deal, which once fueled investment
in the country, have so far not panned out. For Iran’s waning middle
class, there is a sense of desperation.
A plunging currency has many Iranians investing in US dollars and Euros,
and those with the money to do so are stockpiling, anticipating
shortages in the future. Though some of this stockpiling could also be
spun as hoarding for a potential war, to those within Iran it looks less
like the eve of war, and more like the continuation of an open-ended
siege.
You left out the part where they hate us for our freedoms??
And the consequences of this unending economic siege are? Many, but never talked about. One — whatever was left of the pro-Western, well to do, merchant class is either impiverished or reoriented to new markets, but both turned anti-West. Two — reirientation of economy to Asia. Such processes take long time, but are taking steam. After this latest disaster — the belief in Western signature — the cheerleading for nirmalizing relations with West, are gone. And three — the understanding that Iran’s security depends on Russia and China, as US and feeble Europe, expect only capitulatiion.
I am not suggesting that the understanding if their security predicament is new, it was clear long time ago, but now, the security dilemma list even the fig leaf of Agreement with the West.
Other countries have been doing similar calculation. The calculation being — are we just a tool of American power projection, or a real respected partner? Many countries have concluded that they will never be accepted into the “four eyes” club, nor even an expanded Europe+ club. Thus — inly usefull tool to be then used as a resource to feed and defend the real club. Many countries in that position have already started to take measures for defence and politically “triangulate”. Clinton tern for working with a potentially destabilizing force to buy time, minimize harm, or coopt if possible. Countries that are in various stages of triangulation now exclude Iran — but are a growing group. Two of them are already building defense related infrastructure: Turkey and India. Triangulation mode today represents a political maneuver whereby a country recognizes the vital importance of China and Russia for their economic and security future, and must cooperate with an increasingly destabilizing force, US, to buy time, minimize harm, and coopt to get something out of it. The countries besides India and Turkey in this top notch triangulation category today are: Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, Pakistan and Egypt. Then there is SCO members list – Belarus, Amenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgizstan, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Nepal, Afghanistan. India and Pakistan are oermanent members, Iran and Belarus observers, Turkey SCO partner. Under fire are the perceived escapees, Sudan, Algeria. It appears that SCO politics is influencing Mexico after elections. And cautious triangulation of Indonesia. While Brasil and South Africa have been destabilised, it remains to be seen what will happen to Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. Others are being kept hostages, like Serbia over Kosovo. All in all, the number of countries triangulating has grown in Europe as ports redevelopment by China has increased. From Denmark and Netherlands, to France and Italy, Greece. And more coming out of recent agreements between China and EU south east and central European countries.
The more pressure being put on countries for economic ties with China, or military ties to Russia, the firner will be the resolve in those countries to free themselves of any ties to hegemon that can constitute potential for blackmail, But it works for Trump in reverse, forcing US businesses to stay home in the name of security. The probkem with this approach is the risk of US staying isolated from scientific and technological advances in the world. But all thus is producing are further triangulation steps. Today, we see them in countries that are US closest allies, like Japan and South Korea, and Germany and Italy. Even if Trump’s shambolic fireign and trade policy ceases, nothing of essence will change. Whiever takes piwer in US will not back down in trade, and will not be buying sllues back — ni miney for that. Take the ambitious Middle East plan to firce some land exchange, redevelopment for the sake of absorbing millions of Pallestinuan refugees — is beyond US capabilities. As for the designated backers and miney bags — Saudis and Gulf —,the essential question of security in the new order is same. US will always protect Israel and Four Eyes over the perrenial outsiders. So, paying for what? To be a tool and future resouce to feed the real club?. Trust is just not there. SCO alternative offers equality, security and mutually beneficial never coerced trade. Truangulation is today becoming a norm.
Take a move by Saudi Arabia against Canada. One typical speach by top politician in the human rights in Saudi Arabia became an excuse to repatriate students, and MIST importantly — cut grain imports. Why? Gran supply is a weapon, used by US and allues, Canada and Austraia to punush the disobedient. It brought Morsi down in Egypt, and was a factor in foreign policy, from Turkey to Vuetnam. Tiday, as Rusdia came to the top if grain exporting countries, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam are all importing non-GMO grain from Russia. Amour region in Rusdia China birder gas just emerged as high oroducer of soy. Will American farmers ever recapture Chunese soy market? Doubt it. Just like Europe will never get Rusdian food market back. Russia’s grain production is soaring, and with it, grows its meat, dairy and fish production. It is absirbed by Asian and ither global markets.
Iran would rather continue seling oil above the board. But uf it cannot, various pioelines to Asia would do the trick, and trans-Caspian tankers will feed other, unconnected pipelines, both Europe and Asia bound. Oil and gas are fungible and origin cannot bevtraced. With Turkey being oremier suppluer if fruits and vegetables to Russia, Iran will have no problems with supply. Iranian gas and oil goes to Russia which supplies Turkey. The mechanisms for trade that fies nit invilve dollar or euro, works. Iranian stires are not empty nir lacking in anything. It is understandable that individuals want to speculate in currency — it is profitable. That in itself is but a speck in REAL economic adjustment underway in Iran.