Saudi-backed Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is taking a rare trip out of Saudi Arabia this weekend, landing
in the Yemeni city of Sayoun for a visit to the country he nominally
rules, and to attend the first meeting of parliament since the Saudi invasion in 2015.
For the Saudi-backed government to have both its president and its
parliament in place at once is unheard of, though the legitimacy of
either is in such serious doubt that in many ways it will be seen as a
farce.
Yemen’s parliament, after all, was elected way back in 2009, before the
Arab Spring, and their six-year term in office ran out in 2015, about
the time they were run out of the country by the Houthi movement.
Four years later, that parliament still claims legitimacy, and will be
overseen by Hadi, a president who was “elected” in a UN-mandated single
candidate vote in 2012 for a two year term in office, and who over five
years after his term ran out still purports to be the legitimate
president.
That all these terms in office long since expired has been largely
ignored internationally, because the Saudis are backing them, though in
practice the Saudi interest is mostly that neither the parliament not
the president are Shi’ites.
Do we ever learn? Our international politicking is by far more primitive then we give it credit for. Saudi Arabia has been our well honed tool both in the region and well beyond for a longvtime. Islamism — its Sunni variety — as a concept undelying various mercenary operations has been employed around the globe. Practiced in Afghanistan against Soviets, in Bosnia against Serbs, in Kosovo again against the Sebs, in Africa in many shapes and forms, many names and flags. Always same, always agenda of undermining either goverments or specific institutions and parties. Always in countries with Sunni Moslem population.
For us to think that Saudi Arabia was the one orchestrating UN “elections” bringing Hadi to power, and pretending it is legitimate? Please. It would not be the first or last time US used UN in this manner.
Fast forward to June 2017 when Saudi establishment made a U-turn. By removing the uber compliant crown prince Mohammed bin Nayaf, and appointing King’s son in his place — a move signifying the change in Saudi orientation. We have a peculiar disability. We are onto our neoconservative (fake conservative) establishment whenever they act on an issue. But we tend to join them when they criticize. Any thoughts on this real aversion against MBS since the day he was appointed? Any reflection on the peculiar blame our neocon revolutionaries in press asdign to MBS for decidions he could not have made independently before June 2017? Like Yemen? Like Qatar? Any reflection on the fact that US sponsored UAE instead to fight against Hadi supporters in South Yemen, key coastal city of Aden, and have them push against weak Houthi defences along coast up to cities like Mocha? Why was suddenly UAE favored? Given mercenary and drone support AGAINST the very president we pushed on Yemen through UN “elections”.
It is because Hadi became Saudi asset, and Saudi Arabia reprioritized its goals in Yemen conflict since the palace coup. And what changed in Saudi direction since? Plenty. Focus on internal changes resulted in short time frame in changes that slow changing Kingdom has not seen in most people’s memory. As MBS said, revolution in Iran that broyght to power a combination of theocratic ideology, along with politics of elections, parliament and presidency, spooked Saudi establishment, thinking that their own Wahhabi establishment may topple ruling dynasty. As a result, Kingdom abandoned its path to modernization and turned to extreme religious establishment figures for support. He urged return to the path of moderation and modernization. Internally, those reformes, along with emphasis on major infrastructure, development of tourism and cutting off powers of religious police, made him very popular. Externally what changed? First Qatar. The attempt to make Qatar the “terrorism sponsor” with Trump even taking credit for it, and Saudi near war declaration with “conditions” — was probably the last straw in Saudi establishment. A month later, MBN was gone, and MBS went aling Cairo declaration that changed all CONDITIONS. to PRINCIPLES effectively ended the crisis. But Saudis insist on animosity— the pragmatic posture that leaves US to deal with the problem of its base in Qatar. A base that coexists with Turkish base, Iranian goods flooding stores, and Iranian businessmen, energy experts and advisors comingling with Americans in Qatar’s public space.
What do we see in Yemen? US plans and Saudi plans have diverged back in 2017. Saudi partiicipation in US-led efforts to secure compliant state on thr Arabian side of Bab Al-Mandeb has ceased. Instead, it changed to denying US a compliant governance over Yemen. For as long as North is secessionist minded, there could be no single state. With Hadi becoming Saudi asset, the issue of US control became shaky. This is Midfle East, and trusting appearances is not advisable. They are designed to mislead. Thus — I am not sure why did UAE accept American deal to spread its influence over the South at the expense of Saudi-backed Hadi. But one thing we can be sure of — Khashoggi theatrical murder resulted in strengthening MBS rule, not in splinterjng the ruling council. After intelligence reorganization, levers of power are not ambiguous any more. There are no more “dissidents” grumbling against “impulsive” prince. The first trip MBS made was to UAE. Was it to tell treacherous ally that Saudi ruler is secure, and there will be consequences. Or to confer with an ally who took advantage of US, and secured most Southern political base?
Only time will tell. This meeting is if course symbolic and will test US. Is US going to continue to support loudly this fiction of UN sponsored Parliament and President? If not, who exactly is US conferring legitimacy on? Who are the “good guys” now to carry out our
wishes in Sautheast Arabian penninsula?
British set up a base in Oman, and are courting former protectorates, once upon a time Sultanates of Hadhdramouth and Sultanate of Mahra, now part of South Yemen’s Balkanized landscape. How much success will they have? Who knows. But tese sultanates then or now are seafaring people and know that British ard not workd power any more.