After a solid five years of accusing Russia of being in violation of the pact, the United States announced Friday it has formally begun the process of withdrawing from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. This begins the end of the Cold War-era treaty, and caps months of such threats unless Russia gave in to a series of US demands. NATO as a whole issued a statement endorsing the deal, while Germany criticized it as making the world less safe.
The accusations of Russian violations were never proven, and honestly were mostly beside the point. The Trump Administration has a number of officials who have a problem with arms treaties as such for limiting America’s development of new nuclear arms, and this offered a pretext for the administration to insist the pullout, and any consequences, are Russia’s fault.
This could be a very dangerous step in the direct of nuclear arms races, one which follows President Trump having explicitly threatened new arms races several times since his election. The death of the INF also bodes ill for the rest of the Cold War-era pacts. President Trump and other officials have openly scorned the much broader New START, and have avoided any negotiations with Russia on extending it.
Today’s move out of INF means that treaty will be withdrawn from within six months, after a cooling off period. That gives Russia some time to try to make officials see reason. Russia, however, has already given public access to the physical missiles in question, and the US said it was “not good enough,” demanding Russia either scrap the missiles of physically give them to the US to take apart.
INF forbids either side from deploying land-based nuclear missiles with 500km to 5,000km ranges, which in practice forbade the US from having nukes in Europe. Since the deal, the US has replaced that class of missiles with submarine-based ones, so it’s unclear that even without the treaty the US has much reason to start developing new missiles, beyond spite.
On top of that, it’s not clear how many NATO states in Europe would be comfortable hosting American nuclear weapons in the first place. The Cold War is long over, and while some NATO officials are comfortable hyping Russia as a grave threat, few nations are likely to want to make themselves a priority target in a nuclear war by hosting such arms.
If European countries now allow the US to install nuclear weapons on their territory, this would prove that they are indeed vassals of Washington.
They are the ones that Russia will be targeting in response to the installation of nuclear missiles in Europe.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this was more a move against China than Russia. They’d probably love to position such missiles in Guam for example.
“That gives Russia some time to try to make officials see reason.”
Good luck with that one.
When has there ever been a treaty or agreement, the US has respected or uphold?
Great Britain perhaps ??
What we are facing a race to re-arm, like in the 1930s, not a new arms race. The Cold War had been the peace. The world has experienced periods of peace (or relative peace) throughout history. The Thirty Years Peace between the two Peloponnesian Wars, Pax Romana, Europe in the 19th century after the Congress of Vienna, to name a few. They all ended: followed by war. An evidence-based analysis points to another world war. The Congress System finally collapsed in 1914 with the start of World War One. That conflict was followed by the League of Nations. It did not stop World War Two. That was followed by the United Nations and other post-war institutions. But all the indications are they will not prevent a third world war. The signs are ominous.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Is there oodles of money involved for an industry with its lobbying hooks deep in Washington DC? Then yes, no one’s going to stop this.
It should be reassuring to know that it is possible to create nuclear winters when the Earth gets too warm for living on it.
Russias answer.
Putin emphasized that while Moscow’s offers on modernizing the 1987 treaty and making it more transparent “are still on the table,” no more talks should be initiated with the Americans to try and save it.
“Let’s wait until our partners mature sufficiently to hold a level, meaningful conversation on this topic, which is extremely important for us, them, and the entire world,”
https://www.rt.com/russia/450412-russia-inf-talks-usa-derail/
I hope he isn’t holding his breath.
“Our response will be reciprocal. US partners have announced that they were suspending their participation in the [INF] Treaty, and we are suspending it as well. They have announced that they are engaged in research and development, and we will do the same thing,” Putin underlined.