The Afghan Taliban is reporting that a delegation from their group is in Iran to have talks with the Iranian government on the situation along the Iran-Afghanistan border and the situation that will prevail in post-occupation Afghanistan.
The Taliban has been holding talks with US negotiators in recent months on the end of the Afghan War, and a big part of this would be the withdrawal of US forces. The US has reportedly proposed ensuring that the Taliban would have a substantial role in a new Afghan caretaker government.
Underscoring how well this is progressing, the Taliban seems to be trying to position itself in the international community as part of an incoming government. The Taliban, after all, was the Afghan government before the 2001 US occupation, and has a history of ties with all these neighbors.
Religious differences with Iran have always made that a difficult relationship for the Taliban to manage. The Taliban has also participated in talks organized by Russia and including several other regional participants.
That certainly doesn’t sound like the Taliban are interested in going back to working for the US.
The key position of Taliban, or as they call themselves, Islamic Emirate, is to negotiate US withdrawal from the country. At oresent, Kabul government represents presumably US position, thus, IE will presumably not talk to them.
This is now the game of shadows. Trump did wise to announce drawdown as a goidwill gesture, and IE are pragmatic and will reciprocate in agreeing to the process.
US in fact does not have regional support anymore, is a factor. At least in pre MBS time, Saudi Arabia and UAE were heavily involved in bankrolling some Afghan tribes to fight ithers, as infinitum. His has ended. Afghan tribes are a confederation, hence Islamic Emirates. Taliban is an embarrasing concept — product of madrasas funded by Saudis, using Pakistani young and unemployed as “students” or Taliban, to be sent into Afghanistan and topple pro-Soviet government. Times have changed. Russia, China and Iran have developed contacts within both Taliban and Kabul government. Taliban had less problems with Iran then Saudi Arabia because of funding first Al-Qaeda, then Taliban — just to get entangled with US policies of manipulation Afghan regional politics.
With Saudi Arabia playing mire independent, and more national interest oriented role — negotiation process will be moving to Saudi platform. A more palatable intermediary to US — then any other. Thus Rusdia, China, Iran and even Pakistan are freed up to get engaged, without getting the unnecessary spotlight that irks US. Kabul is also intensely involved in SCO as an observer. Many wherls are jn motion — and the jey is Saudi role. By shielding Pakistan from US ire, providing funds to overcome cut of US funding — Saudis shored up political survival of new government. This allows Pakistan to go quietly about business with China and Russia. With inability to get India to abandon Iran, and get to compete with Pakistan in Afghanistan — US has ZERO regional support for indefinite staying in Afghanistan.
There are similarities with Syria situation. Loss of Gulf support for “rebels” resulted in quick embrace of Damascus.
There are analysts that by the virtue of inertia think that Saudi involment in Afghanistan would bother Russia, Iran and Turkey. Not in the least – as the pricess of withdrawal must take into account US positions. Especially, as domestically, the whole world of trouble is faced by those changjng status quo — be that in Korea, Afghanistan or Syria.
Your posts are enlightening. Could you try to clean up the spelling/grammar errors? I’m not trying to be a dick but sometimes I really don’t know what word you are trying to use or I lose the meaning of your point. Thank you. I’ll keep reading your great posts regardless.
The Taliban ruled Afghanistan before the US occupation, and then had full and complex relations with its neighbor Iran. Therefore, this is about renewing an old relationship, not creating a new one by a new entity.