With Turkey’s imminent invasion of Kurdish territory in northeastern Syria expected to begin any day, the Kurdish YPG has quickly secured a new alliance with the Syrian government. Within short order, the Syrian Army has arrived in the city of Manibj, on the Euphrates River, to help with its defense.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is reporting that this first deployment is of over 300 Syrian troops, with military spokesmen saying they are to deploy on the city’s outskirts with the goal of “defeating all invaders and occupiers.” There are US and French troops still within the city of Manbij itself, and Turkish-backed rebels advancing on the city from the north, with the expectation that this will be the first target of the new Turkish invasion.
US officials confirmed that “dozens” of US troops remain in the city, and have seen no sign of the Syrian forces trying to enter. Though the US is nominally aligned with the Kurds, the withdrawal is coming at the behest of, and in coordination with, Turkey.
Turkey, naturally, is objecting to this new deployment, insisting that the Kurdish YPG have “no authority” to invite anyone else into Manbij, and claiming it was destabilizing the region. As Manbij is on the western shore of the Euphrates, Turkey has long ruled out allowing Kurds to remain there, though with most of the upcoming invasion targeting Kurds east of the river, this boundary means increasingly little.
At any rate, it’s unlikely that the Kurdish YPG considered themselves to need any particular authority to request the help of Syria’s military to protect a Syrian city from foreign invasion. It’s also difficult to argue that resisting an invasion amounts to “destabilizing” anything.
Syria’s Army similarly sent troops to the Afrin District to try to help them resist a Turkish invasion. This failed, though the district is immediately along the Turkish frontier, and far from Syrian supply lines, which limited their ability to support the defense.
Manbij, by contrast, is a major city and right on major highways. Syria has a military presence not far south to call reinforcements, and after Russia warning Turkey against the invasion, may well be able to call in Russian support as well.
The hope, at least for now, is that the presence of these troops will deter a Turkish invasion, as the presence of US troops in Manbij previously had. Turkish officials have been very public on their intention to invade, however, making it unlikely that they’ll not launch some sort of offensive against the area.
We are soreading hearsay and speculations. Syrian government NEVER sent any forces to help YPG in Afrin and defend from Turkish jnvasion. In Afrin, there are Syrian Arabs as well. Those were forced to form units to make it look like Syrians are helping Kurds against Turkey invasion. Let us try to remember the sequence of events. Russia and Damascus negotiated with YPG in order to reintegrate the region into government controlled territory. Looked simple – with no ISIS there and no US or other foreign troups the region could have easily come under Damascus control. The detail were negotiated by Russia. YPG played games — orefending to be for unification, placing Syrian flags in courthouses — but refusing deals. During that period, Damascus was against Turkey invasion to rout YPG — understandably. YPG had a choice — accept control of borders by Syrian troups, disarm YPG, turn over government buildjngs to Syria, and stop creating and controlling internal borders. This was to stop smuggling arms from Turkish PKK accross border to Afrin, and then into Idlib. YPG refused, Turkey routed them. Syria did NOT defend them any more verbally, nor blame Turkey.
I suspect that YPG will try to get Damascus involved — but I suspect there us NOTHING Damascus would do without full coordinatikn with Russia and Turkey. YPG will eventually be disarmed and Kurds political parties participate in Constitutional assembly.
There are Syrian forces outside Manbij — but this is old news. To protect themselves from Turkey, YPG has given up a region next to Manbij. Turkey at that time hailed the move — as a legitimate return of territory to Syrian government.
For anyone thinking how they can now exploit some differences among the peace guarantors — Turkey, Russia and Iran — and Syrian Government, has been living under a rock. There are no moves made without coordination and agreement. Thus is a late stage end-game, and actirs are stuck for better or worse with the bed they made.
YPG should consider leaving for Kobane, where they could at least insure that Afrin will not be releated. And have SOME leverage. In Manbij, war crimes and ethnic cleansing have happened, and when majority gets thejr freedom, it will not be pretty for Kurds.
Thrkish Army entered Syria, from Jarabulus. Syrian Army has been outside Manbij for a while, and will be on the move — depending on YPG. Old psych tricks will not work. So, it is now up to YPG to make some decisions.
Always SO enlightening to hear Bianca”s take on the blizzard of supposed “news”… Makes me wonder who is the prime mover in the murky news dissemination.
A lots of news dissenination — I take Afrin as stellar example — comes from the world wide network of Kurdish organuzations. As MANY of them are supported by Western governments over decades, they are now in the state of shock. Add to that the heavy dose of wishfull thinking in Western media — hoping to see Turkey militias fight Syrian Army — and ine can see the temptation in interpreting any news in this light.
Syrian Army is in high alert in Manbij region, for sure, as many things can happen — but to assume that Syria will enter city with US and Turkish patrols still there, and YPG armed — not likely. YPG used to stick Syrian flags in Afrin, and housted them up in courthouses, making everyone believe that Syrian Army was coming to defend them from Turks. YPG was betting wrong in Afrin. One, they believed Damaacus would treat Turkey as invading force, givjng YPG higher leverage in keeping autonomy in joint cause. It was a wrong bet — Turkey routed them with little trouble, as Kurds as population were sick of YPG resisting Damascus offer.
The same kind of confusion we see at the beginning of Turkey’s action.
But unlike Afrin, where Kurds are majority population — in Manbij they are minority. And have no leverage with Syrian government.
If YPG offers disarmmament, and US troups leave, that would be a different story.
We will have to wai a bit longer for events to unfurl.
You believe the militia phase in Syria is ending?
It is — as I see it, evolving., For example, in the first phase of Turkey engaging various Free Syria Army militias, they remained distinct militia under Turkish command. As more were absorbed, especially larger groups like Jaish Al Islam, Turkey had all militias have same uniforms — no more individualized, and the command was streamlined. Turkey changed their leadership, if resisting. Syrian Government has numerous militia that started as self defence units, like Palestinians, Shia and Christian militias. As more territory was liberated, the fighters against the government — either Islamic Salafis, Nusra based or later ISIS — had to decide to relicate ir stay. Invthe surface a bizzare choice, but logical. Nusra was and is staffed by many nationals, and had plenty of money. They recruited local Islamic groups. Once defeated, foreign (and non local) fighters had to leave, as they had no homes in the area. The reconciliation deals were then setbup for locals, giving them local security responsibility and returning local governance, along with budget.
Essentially, militias that were created in the period of Syrian Army inability to control the entire territory — were absorbed back into community, or remained loyal to internationalists, like Nusra or ISIS. With ISIS gone and no Arab money bankrolling it — only renamed Nusra remains. Many groups under it alredy joined either Turkey, or dissolved into population. Groups under Turkey have a mission to get rid of Kurdish rule and its American sponsors over Syrian territory — not fight Assad. Which is Turkey’s goal. Syria could not do it without giving US an excuse to fight Syrian Army in the name of defending Kurds.
With YPG, situation is very different. As US allies, Turkey needed to deal with US to get accross that Kurdish statelett on its border is unacceptable.
Looking at Afrin — Syrian government and Russia offered deal to YPG which was rejected. Even though YPG touted Damascus support. The sticking point was disarmament. YPG wanted to remain in charge, but Syria to defend them against Turkey. Let us hope YOG gets more original this time. How can they strike a deal with Damascus, if both US and Turkey patrol Manjib?
Sure, Damascus will beef up its forces, as Syria controls land ADJACENT to the city of Manjib. But enter it? Unless something drastical changes, I do not see it yet.
Seem like a reasonable premise. I find it remarkable that Assad has weathered the storm. But he couldn’t have done that without a lot of support from the Syrian people. Likely because the alternative was likely to very ugly. Russian and Iranian support was the tipping point. I hope the nightmare is over for the people of Syria.
Yes…. Me too.. I always feel bad for the Kurds, but wonder why they seemingly make the worst possible alliances, time after time, & often when keeping their heads down & mum would have given them time to let things cool down enough to get a better deal!
“It’s also difficult to argue that resisting an invasion amounts to “destabilizing” anything.”
The only way is to insist the Syria is already broken up, that is permanent, and the Syrian government cannot have its country back from those who took it (Turkey and the US).
Pay attention to Russia-Turkey choreography. Yesterday, meeting between the two charted the course. Turkey is one of the guarantors of peace in Syria, and is not going to do anything to stray out of agreed upon plan. Only yesterday Turkey affirmed Syrian territorial integrity. And for as long as YPG is in charge, not surrendering to Syrian government it is impossible to establish Damascus control over its territory. US just declared that Kurds SHOULD keep US supplied weapons (I know, this can change in a blink), so, no indication of encouriging YPG to settle.
Somebody’s ground troups have to take over.
Turkey is by far the best suited to address US controlled area nominally under YPG control. Without solving this priblem, Turkey would llose control over its own territory. Syrian and Turkish Kurds would control both sides of border. If down the road you add Iraqi Kurds, the entire Middle East transport, trade and infrastructure map woukd change. As Erdogan put it — US wants to isolate Turkey in Anatolia.
Somebody’s ground troups have to take over.
And the last thing US wants is letting Assad move in! US could not find any other takers. Gulf states are to make nice with Assad in order to have access to reconstruction investments, snd regain some influence. It will cost them dearly, but they have clearly made up their mind.
But also to put behind the Shia-Sunni bloodshed that ISIS represented, and that brought disrepute to Sunni world. Bahrain and Kuweit are particularly eager to put this behind in light of their large Shia populations.
If Turkey invades Syria get ready for
World War 3
Not high chance. This one is highly choreographed at this stage. Of course, there is always Israel that is highly displeasd. Having succeeded in the downing of Russian reconnaissance plane by hiding war planes behind it — now is playing a more dangerous game -/ hiding behind PASSANGRR planes — hoping for Syrian defences to shoot them down. Then all bets are off.
Otherwise, the only other viable hot spot is Ukraine — but the internal conditions in the country are not that favorable to starting anything major. And other challenges are rising to Anglophone and Frankophone Africa. China more active jn Anglophone, Russia annoying Macron. As Africa is by far more important economically to keep control off then Ukraine. Ukraine is a bottomless pit demanding support. Yes, some arms csn be sold — but Ukraine credit rating is not good, and the only way to sell is by US government lioan guarantees.
So, it will be on in Africa. Until somebody’s money runs dry.
Turkey should remember that what goes around comes around … They could be in for a dose of destabilization themselves one of these days.
For better or worse we live in a world of sovereign states. Turkey cannot make the call about what happens in Syria, though their concerns are important, just like Russia’s are in its neighborhood.
Turkey is NOT making this call in isolation. How many years are needed for this to become obvious.
I hope you’re right; but Erdogan is a slippery devil and he’s a risk taker. He may feel this is a chance to make a big splash.
Erdogan came to power after US realized that Turkey cannot be managed by Generals, who put loyalty to NATO ahead of any national interest. It took many coups, a lots of bloodshed, hundreds of thousands jailed, thousands executed, and many being deprived of citizenship. Erdogan was jailed for political activity. He had to get permission if Generals to estsblish a party, and promised economic reforms. He bad a parallel state to contend with, for he parted with Gulen. Gulen was, on the initiative of Western intelligence — setting up a faux islamism, hoping to get population to support him. Erdogan did not object to alliowing some space for religion, but was a nationalist at his core. He focused on economy, turned to Asia, and started an era of economic miracle. With population better off — his popularity rose, and he never lost popular support. In spite of being accussed of everything under sun, corruption, trading oil with terrorists, supporting terrorist orgsnization. And in spite of a major breakthrough in busting a military clnspiracy and reforming army, he was hounded politically by Soros organizations. He was nearly sidelined when the Gkvrrnment of Davutoglu took over in Nivembrr 2015, and the first day Russian plane was shot down. The Davutoglu government stepped down in May 2016 after Erdogan busted EU deal with Turkey. But by July, attempted assadination/coup failed, creating a path for Erdogan to survive. He never took unnecessary risks, and early on sought membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Turkey was accepted in 2013 (partner status), and sfter negotiating terms, became member in 2014. Economy, politics and geopolitics from that time onward was determined by Turkey’s relationship with Rusdia, China and Iran. Today, it is also shaped by India and Pakistan since their elevation to oermanent status.
Our knowledge of Turkey snd Erdogan is largely anecdotal — and shaped by our media pirtrayal/demonization.
Erdogan knows who to thank for the intelligence that saved his life, and Turkey from returnjng to military rule. It is important to know the whole spectrum of energy projects that link Turkey and Russia (Blue Stream) and the new Turkey Stream, nuclear electric plants. And massive projects with China. Without help from China and Russia, Turkey would not have been able to withstand the onslaught of economic sanctions, Kurd attacks on military bases, globalist media scene, and pro-NATO Republican Party.
At this point, Turkey cannot make the slightiest mistake. It has support, but it is based in fullfilling its share of obligations.
It is important not to read much into Erdogan’s political rhetoric— this is a style of politics in Turkey. But Erdogan manages to get voters on his side by being remarkably open about issues at hand.
This is not the case of like or dislike — but a question of long term interests of Turkey. If we understand them — we will underdtand Erdogan. The issue of relationships with US and NATO as a whole hinges in ONE issue — trust. Turkey was never alliwed to purchase Patriot defence systems. Never. Even when war started in Syria, US deployed Patriots using its own crew, and crews of Germany snd Netherlands. Turkey was not allowed to touch them. Niw, after Turkey purchased S-400, US is selljng Patriots. The trust is not there, as US gets out of international treaties and obligations all the time. Turkey will not take chance.
While I know full well that a situation such as this one in the Middle East is highly unusual — and all kinds of things can go wrong — Turkey cannot back out of its Troika obligations — deals struck with Russia and Iran. The deals are backstopped by China, as key stakeholder in SCO,
Erdogan can, like Trump create an bewildering array of statements with double meanings. But Turkey’s economy is looking East, and West is struggling politically and economically. Even if Erdogan us gone, the political map of Turkey has changed.
As is the case of SCO — friendship and goid relations are important to maintain, and Turkey will try everythjng to estsblush good relations with US. The real question is — will US accept Turkey as is. Thst is — unwilling to damage relations with SCO. Turkey still has a vulnerability in PKK — and remains to be seen if dusturbsnces within its own territory bring about complications.
I am not at all confident that we will see a smooth transition — but the skeleton of one is in the works.
Turkey has out of necessity changed and Erdogan knows on which side his bread is buttered. True. But he is an arch jihadist and he has certainly not abandoned his neo ottoman designs (now apparently put on hold) to “correct past mistakes” which is Erdogan newspeak for occupying and gobbling up large chunks of land in the region.
Shipments of different types of weapons smuggled from Turkey gets from time to time caught in Greek customs. Their destinations has been poor Muslim majority suburbs of Belgium, France and Germany. You can imagine the purpose of that.
CIA and Turkey shipped via Turkey thousands of wahhabi cutthroats to Libya during NATO’s war to unseat Gaddafi and back again when the war on Syria started. Turkey was up until late 2017 the destination for terrorists from all over the world en route to Syria assisted by Turkey and it’s military and intelligence and Turkey and Erdogan’s clan in particular has maid a fortune on stolen Syrian oil and industrial infrastructure, there’s no need to deny that.
These are all facts. Erdogan is and will remain a backstabber.
I cannot really respond with any dose of seriousness if you indeed believe in everything our nedia said of Erdogan or Turkey. The business of smuggling terrorists was ALL in coordination with Turkish PKK — that was always well armed. Wonder by whom? If I were a Southern Belle, I could not possibly act this dumb not to notice the linkage between well armed Turkudh PPK and cross border smuggling — seling and reselling ISIS oil, transporting arms along Syriian border, and through Afrin on to Islamists groups in Idlib and beyond.
Turkey put an end to the Westward smuggling, by cutting a corridor between border town of Jarabulus and a key crossroads at Al -Bab. Russian air force asdisted them in routing ISIS.
As forYPG — they will get plenty of inducements by Russia snd Damascus to do what is right — lay down arms and surrender to Syrian Army. YPG raising Syrian flags is not the same — this primitive stunt is meant to boost morale of Kurdish people that are genuinelly not happy with YPG putting them in the corner.
Contrary to propaganda — Syrian Army NEVER defended YPG in Afrin against Turkey. Once YPG refused Russian mediation, refused to let Syrian Army take control of the region and refused to let Syrian Army take over border to Turkey — they were in their own. They constantly lied about Syrian Army helping them against Turkey — so they can later blame Syrian Army for the failure.
Do not have sympathies for YPG or PKK. These know exactly what they are doing, as PKK has for decades lived of Western help and arms. West likes to keep Turkey on the ropes, using Kurds to destsbilize the country every so often. For as long as their leadership can convince the population that they are fighting for the cause. YPG is PKK — same leadership.
The sensitivity to Kurdish population is important — they have suffered at
the hands of ISIS themselves, but it was the choice of their leaders to put their forces at US disposal and take over control of many non-Kurdish towns and villages. Like Manbij. Who is YPG protecting in Manbij? Not its Kurdish populace, under 10% of population. Or along Euphrates Valley and Deir Azzor, where Kurds amount to LESS then 2% of population? What is YPG trying to accomplish by accepting the role of occupier? Hoping US would set up another Israel-like entity, with Kurds lordjng over vast territory inhabited by unfriendly Arab population?
US may not make their fortune — but France is cozying up to Kurds. Turkey just published 9 bases where French troups are staying — with more soldiers then US.
Turkey will invade should YPG continue to resist surrendering to Syrian Army. There cannot be any alliances between YPG and Syrian government as that may imply that Syria is recognizing YPG territorial rights.
So, Russia will warn Kurds, Damascus will warn Kurds, Turkey will warn Kurds — but it is up to YPG to stop the invasion.
So, accepting Syria’s territorial integrity, surrendering arms to Syrian Army, allowing Syria to take over control of border with Turkey — is to do list for YPG in return for a place at Constitutional Assembly.
But this is NOT likely. YPG will rely on French troups, hoping that NATO will get involved, and save them. Turkey is NATO member, and the sooner Turkey defeats YPG — less likely the broader conflict.
Turkey may have to go after Kurd enclave directly — a poorly defended Kobane and Hassakah. If these areas surrender, YPG will be ousted from power, and have no place to go home or place at political table. Macron has no leverage anywhere.
Or, they can withdraw from all all places they occupy, including Manbij and Raqqa —allowing Turkey and Syrian Army to take the region over. Syrian Army has been in Manbij suburbs for nearly two years.
Schedule for departing US/French troups is a squashy one. YPG waiting on French, waiting on US, waiting on YPG…
As for Turkey, knowjng where your bread is coming from is an art other countries need to learn. In case if Turkey, wheat is coming from Russia. All trade and investments are coming from Russia and Asia, with European imports becoming more expensive, and exports dwindling into oversaturated, overleveraged Europe. Macron will not save his economy by revivjng colonial ambitions.
Oh, YPG and PKK are terrorists alright there’s no doubt about that and I have absolutely no sympathies for them. Kurds in Syria are mostly refugees from Turkey btw.
It’s just that Erdogan is an opportunist that can’t be trusted, he plays Russia and the US against eachother, or at least he did until he found himself outsmarted and firmly in Russia’s pocket. But once he gets out of there….
Actually, Turkey is afraid they might someday get the Assad treatment, and that Kurds in Turkey will someday be both catalyst and benefactor. Erdogan never forgave Assad for being soft on PKK-YPG cross-border operations.
The dams that control the Tigris and Euphrates (and therefore the future of agriculture in Syria and Iraq), for example, lie in Kurdish-claimed territory. Those dams are geopolitically one of Turkey’s strongest levers of power in the ME. For now, they control that land. The Turks will naturally be suspicious that American Kurdistan is a pretext for a future Kurdish separatist insurrection.
The Kurds of Turkey also claim one of the largest areas in terms of percentage of a nation state and sheer size overall, by geography and population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Kurdistan
The Turks have many reasons to be unreasonable about Kurdish nationalism. Even if their chosen tactics seem more likely to incite Kurdish separatism, it appears a foregone conclusion that Kurdish separatism is a ticking time bomb.
Caliman, indeed! Erdogan would be wise to consider this map, drawn in 2006: https://brilliantmaps.com/new-middle-east/
It has been confirmed that Syrian Army entered Manbij suburb from the territory it controls in greater Manbij. This made news, and is confirmed. But this is really only psychologically valuable. It is a signal to YPG to make up its mind, or Afrin scenario will be repeating.
The REAL question is US timetable for withdrawal from Manbij. Today, US troups closed down base in north-east, Hassakah province. But Turkey is not impressed. Hassakah has a large Kurdish population. Why would Turkey go there to risk civilian casualties and galvanize Kurds against Turkey. At present Kurds are more mad at YPG that brought them into no win situation. Also, in Hassakah is a small detachment of Syrian Army in a base that remained there throughout the conflict. If Kurds in Hassakah decide to turn to Assad — this would hurt YPG. But it is currently a sideshow.
But we are witnessing a complicated, partially choreographed sequence of events. Things can go wrong. But having endured and prevailed so far, it would be hard to imagine Turkey and Russia not playing out this carefully, very carefully.
Yesterday and a day before Bahrein and UAE embassies opened in Damascus. After new year, new UN rep for Syria takes over, and we will soon find out the direction of UN process.
I could not be more pleased with Syria’s decision to protect their Kurds . Syria has always been the most friendly country to the Kurds . It is perhaps Tukey and even the U.S. that has no business in Syria .
True, Syria was always good place for Kurds. But let us not confuse Kurds with YPG. If YPG refuses to deal with Damascus, Afrin scenarionwill repeat itself. It is not enough for YPG to so graciously invite Syrian Army to protect them — after they asked US to bomb them in order to continue ocvupying Arab towns and villages. YPG must disarm, and let Syrian Army take over their positions. YPG wants Syria to protect them, while they still want to keep Syrian state institutions OUT.
If YPG collapses, like in Afrin — Turkey has no problem with Kurds. In the contrary, Turkey has been pouring humanitarian aid into Afrin, especially access to health care.
Syria’s patience with YPG is not endless. As US will deal with Turkey — not sith Damascus, I do not know what security guarantees they received. How can Damascus be of any help there?
Army from the north.
Army from the south.
Army from the west.
Army from the east.
Manbij looks like to have its first Mexican standoff.
If Erdogan is f**ked than so is America’s last hope to destabilize the Levant. A coalition of Syrians, Kurds, and Russians= Game over. This is good news. Notice antiwar’s resident Turkish agent provocateur is busting a proverbial tit. I feel like lighting a Montecristo and toasting my portrait of Che Guevara. Today is a good day to be an anti-imperialist.
True. It’s good anyday to be an anti imperialist. Just more satisfying on somedays.
As far as Che Guevara goes? No need to toast him. He’s been toasting for awhile now.
Che died for our sins. Even Mr. Rothbard gave his respects.
At this point the Kurds look like some kind of bad luck charm.
The Kurds KNOW that Assad is a better choice than Erdogan.
… Syrian Arab Army, or Syrian militia like in Afrin? The U.S. seems unlikely to permit the SAA to officially take control of Manbij.
The real SAA entering Manbij would be reasserting lawful control over its own sovereign territory. That international law thing would be the only real stop against Turkish attack.
This ‘alliance’ reads like an agreement between militias, and, the Turks demonstrated what they thought of Syrian militias in Afrin.
There is no alliance with YPG, for as long as YPG has territorial claims.
Syrian Army NEVER fought with YPG to protect them from Turkey invasion. Kurdish propaganda is very strong — just witness the battles in Wikipedia where Kurds kept on changing population numbers in areas where they are a tiny minority. Like in Al -Bab or Manbij, Raqqa, along Turkish border. In Afrin, YPG had golden opportunity — offer made by Damascus and guaranteed by Russia. To lay down weapons, alliw Syrian Army to take iver borders with Turkey, and letting Syrian administration back into regional courthouses. There would have been no Turkish invasion. As it happened, YPG refused, Turkey invaded — YPG routed, and Turkey in control of both sides of border. Smuggling to Idlib, and before that Aleppo came across Afrin from US supplied Turkish PKK.
Anybody has ANY curiosity how is Afrin fairing under Turkey? Interesting developments there, as Turkey is doing a visibly good job in letting other Kurdish leaders establish administration, and bringing in some badly needed services — like clinics. The message being sent to Kurds elsewhere, Turkey is not here to bring harm, but remove smuggling militants from power. Damascus will eventually get involved in Afrin affair, after YPG question is solved elsewhere.