In a surprise move, President Trump has declared victory over ISIS in Syria, and the White House has confirmed that a complete withdrawal of US military forces from Syria has been ordered. Officials also say the State Department will be withdrawn in the next 24 hours.
This would see an estimated 2,000 US troops pulled from Syria, which comes after many months of Pentagon officials positioning the military presence as a very long-term one. No one seems to have anticipated this announcement.
In the immediate lead-up to the announcement, however, the Trump Administration has been telegraphing a post-war mindset a bit, with special envoy James Jeffrey confirming earlier this week that the US accepts Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is staying in office.
That’s a big shift after years of demanding regime change at the end of the war. Now, US officials are just insisting that no reconstruction aid will be provided unless the Assad government changes substantially.
The announcement is expected to start a lot of arguments, with a number of Congressional hawks already positioning themselves as vehemently opposed to the pullout. Hawks within the administration will likely oppose the plan as well, and the Pentagon seems to have planned to just stay in Syria permanently.
British Defense Minister Tobias Ellwood issued his own statement rejecting Trump’s announcement, saying he “strongly disagrees” with the assessment that ISIS is defeated. It is unclear if Britain intends to keep attacking Syria on their own.
The biggest impact of a US pullout is likely to be in Syrian Kurdistan, where Turkey is threatening an invasion, and the Pentagon has been warning that would be “unacceptable.” President Trump spoke to the Turkish president just a few days ago, and if a pullout was imminent then, they presumably would’ve discussed the matter, and the implications. This may explain President Erdogan having the impression that Trump endorsed his invasion.
It’s not clear how long it will take for the US to get 2,000 troops out of Syria, and some military officials may drag their heels on the matter, hoping that they can talk the president out of ending the war. For now, however, there is reason to hope that the American involvement in the war is about to be over.
Excellent, declare victory and leave ! Of course the air units involved are not stationed in Syria, but, good news.
For once we agree. Now out of Afghanistan, Korea, japan, Germany etc.
I’d be willing to bet you and Dave agree on many things and probably very few that you don’t other than the differences in your perceptions of Trump.
That is true, tho, I’m sure it wont stop us loudly arguing over minutiae eh John ;^)? Let’s just hope these aren’t empty words from trump again.
Here here.
Neither are the CIA/Mossad mercenaries who work with ISIS, whose fighters will be withdrawn, rearmed, and moved to Afghanistan. The Taliban report that “they taste like chicken.”
I dont know if it’s possible to identify the depth of black ops in any region, both govt, and corporate sponsored. I would like to see mercenaries trained by US taxpayers stripped of US citizenship. Give their citizenship to someone useful, like a lettuce picker.
Even more troubling — they are shipped to Africa, our next target for disciplining those less obedient, and any country cooperating with Belt&Riad plans for railroad connectivity. I bet on a trouble spot anywhere along this diagonal connection between Indian Ocean Africa to Atlantic, cutting down in shipping time and avoiding neuralgic spots US can block (battle over Bab Al Mandeb).. Battle for Yemen is a message to Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Egypt primarily — that their shipping to/from Africa can be blocked, even if Suez is open. Thus — end game for Yemen still unclear.
But ISIS will no longer get Gulf States support.
This is a main reason for withdrawal — there is really no ISIS, unless Western countries dig deeper into pockets to pay them. The ISIS Kurds are currently fighting in Euphrates valley are only rebellions of lical Arab polulation not willing to accept Kurds as overlords, as Kurds are only a tiny minority in the region. The local population is not accepting permanent Kurdish state, and the longer this mythical fighting ISIS lasted to keep Kurds in power accross vast areas where they do not live — the more US will end up supporting occupation of majority by a minority. Neither Syria nor Russia came out publicly against US sneaky attempt to cement Kurdish rule — the job is given to Turkey. With YPG already defeated in Al-Bab during Euphrates Shield, then in Afrin in Olive Branch — YPG affiliation with PKK is a driving force to depose them from leading Kurds. In Afrin, Kurdish population was for reintegrating with Damascus and letting Damascus control birders with Turkey. Russia worked with Kurds to implement the plan. It was not accepted by YPG — at that time YPG had a hard border to Syria and was indirectly forcing Syrians to sell their oroperty. The reason Turkey had no problems ousting YPG from Afrin — locals were not willing to fight. Otherwise, with the rugged terrain and determined fighters Turkey would not have been able to conquer Afrin.
US decision to pull out is a combination of all facts. No ISIS territory, only some hit and run — neither Kurds nor US could do much about. The increasing rebellion of population living in US controlled area. Less YPG support among Kurds. SDF is a joke — no Arab Syrians participation in fighting. No support for Islamist groups and ISIS based cults coming from Gulf countries. Once Saudis closed the spigot by cutting Wahhabi funds in Saudi Arabia — others followed suit. Worse yet, Turkey picked up the abandoned groups, took iver their leadership and put them in unifirms — no free lancing. Now Turkey has larger number of Syrians ready to remove Kurdish domination over Syrian Arab regions. And they can expect full blown support from locals. Kurds are majority in Kobane region — but YPG hold on power is slipping. They need to be sure to defend their homes against any Afrin style Turkey cake walk.
There must be some kind of deal made with all parties on Kurds. Some transition, I hope. But one never knows in Washington — the idea of withdrawal is not in their DNA. But Trump must stick to his guns — and fullfil his promise. He promissed withdrawal many times in his rallies, and must have some clear wins.
It does not help that Saudis slashed funds for High Negotiating Committee on Syria set up under Hillary Clinton. They are not a factor any more, and Constitutional Assembly is now mowing along, agreed by Turkey, Russia and Iran. It dies not help that countries like Bahrain are in the lead to welcome back Assad into fold. Bahrain? The same Babrain with Saudi tanks helping keep Sunni ruler in power over 80% of Shia population? So, this same Bahrain provided a good optical in UN in September. Its Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmad Khalifa embraced Syrian Foreign Minister. Later elaborated that Syria is an Arab country with no Arab states helping in restoring stability. He also had an amazing message — that Syria should take control of its entire territory! In addition to making it clear that no support will be given to Idlib when Syria mives in — the message is clear that US must relinquish its control in order for the remainder of Syria to be reintegrated. This is a message to Kurds — deal with Damascus, or deal with Turkey. The significance of Bahrain taking a lead is also in making nice to Assad — knowing its own Shia population is pro-Assad. Call it olive branch or a mega opening in talking to Shia leadership and resolving crisis. This is also a recognition that Iran is here to stay. Positive media presentation of Assad in Kuwait is aling the same line. It is also recognizing the fact that 40% of Kuweit is Shia, and making nice to Shia rulled Iraq is chrrently a big plus. Much more diplomacy is on the way. Saudi main TV channel broadcasts such events, normally unheard off.
But leave it up to neocons and our conttolled media to not only twist the story on Syria — but to impose a complete radio silence on all events in the Gulf they do not like. And naturally, all was well before naughty prince MbS took over and our darling MbN wielded mighty weapons of financing “freedom fighters”
across the globe, started war in Yemen, and threatened to invade Qatar. The starvation in Yemen never bothered anyone before, nor did the blockade of shipping food to the starvjng. This clearly does not bother all the sensitive souls even today.
I am not yet convinced that neocons do not have something up their sleave. Because abandoning Euphrates valley is a cardinal sin in the eyes of Israel.
Great! lets have a parade. I bet it won’t happen to be honest.
The parade or the withdrawal?(snark)
To the rear – HARCH!
Advance to the rear !
Mission accomplished redux, lol. T minus six months until we invade.
Best guess: This is a deal with Turkey so we can continue to harbor Gulen.
Waiting for Israel’s agreement on this. Stay tuned.
I think this move on Trump’s part is a message to Netanyahu to get his politicians in America on board with funding the Wall.
Does that include Al Tanf base, which blocks the Damascus-Baghdad (Lebanon to Iran if you are a neo con) highway? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Tanf_(US_base)
In May 1969 Nixon announced that the US would complete its withdrawal from Vietnam in a year. Let’s wait and see how long it takes the US to withdraw 2,000 troops from Syria. I hope it happens.
Better walk before the Turks make us run.
Right. The Turkish-US showdown appears to be averted.
I have a bad feeling that Erdogan might be in on this decision. Which would mean Turkey invading Rojava while Trump tisk-tisks from the sidelines with his hands in his pocket. It’s still better than staying but it could still leave an opportunity for regime change, considering Turkey’s history of funding jihadists.
Israel funds jihadists and so does Saudi Arabia.
Israel created HAMAS as a foil to the PLA
Watch for a quick response from the Russians, Erdogan, Assad and the Kurds, where the Kurds agree with the Syrian forces moving in to secure the border to avert a Turkish invasion.
Notice how it’s a win-win-win-win-win (ie a win for everyone).
I agree and, as a staunch supporter of the Rojava Revolution, that’s what I’ve been hoping for from the start. All I can do now is hold my breath.
Friends don’t fight each other!!!!
The Turks were never going to mess with the Americans. Far more likely that it was a plan hatched on the fly with Erdogan to achieve exactly the outcome we see. (It’s a bit of a stretch to think that the President could have pulled this off as a ***secret*** plan without the intel folks catching on and scotching the deal. In fact, it’s still not a done deal,… but here’s hoping.)
This is great news. Again.
Let’s see, how long does it take to get 2000 (actually, the number I recall was 3000) personnel out. Two mobile 155mm units, and security. Perhaps the missing 1000 are trainer/advisors ? I believe those mobile artillery just get picked picked up by helo, and flown out.
“Two mobile 155mm units,”
They get put on a tractor trailer and driven over the border into Iraq. Maximum distance: from Tal Tamir, Syria to Rabia, Iraq, 177 km on M4, 2 hour 36 minutes, not including loading time. Perhaps double that if they drive slowly.
https://www.google.com.mx/maps/dir/Rabia,+Iraq/Tall+Tamr,+Syria/@36.6555343,40.6040591,8.92z/data=!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x4009cbecc2c979f5:0xfd6c94314c1a05d2!2m2!1d42.092199!2d36.8063579!1m5!1m1!1s0x154a5c1ac6df6095:0x189da028612d986f!2m2!1d40.3675423!2d36.6561848!3e0?hl=en
Get the guys and gals home for Christmas!
Get ALL the troops home for Christmas and let them finally defend America in 2019.
I recall seeing film of those beasts being deployed in Syria via beast helicopters. Mmm, come to think of it, perhaps they were towed pieces, and not self propelled. Why drive when you can fly.
That’s a surprise. Trump persisted and won?
Second surprise. First surprise was an article on the frontpage of Antiwar, John Bolton saying it was time to get out of Afghanistan. Then I thought wait a minute, John Q. Bolton? I don’t recall anything about a Q middle name?
John Q is an Army officer who did tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. John C(chickenhawk) is the national security adviser who would wet himself if he was any where near combat.
John Richard Bolton actually. Yes, for a moment I mixed up John Q. Bolton with Abu Bolton Al Amriki.
I didn’t really know the nasty Bolton’s middle name. I just thought C for Chickenhawk was appropriate.
Thank freaking GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why not do this in Afghanistan too? perhaps even in South Korea and Japan, even in Germany-WW2 is over and the Korean War could be declared over too- a good move for Trump with Kim Jong-Un, and saves money too.
Gotta start somewhere. The first time is always the hardest.
I totally love the Neocon/Neoliberal experts screaming their expert condemnation. Pretty much certifies the wisdom of the move. Now lets see what the public thinks. Will they drink the Kool-Aid served up by the Neocon/Neoliberal media mouthpieces, or are they ready finally to see the wisdom?
I believe time table has been set for withdrawal. This is all part and parcel of the najor change in Ruyadh since June 2017.
Saudi Arabia cut funds for High Negotiating Commitee back in September. This allowed various political opposition in Syria and former large militant groups to agree to terns of forming constitutional committee, — the agreement just announced by Turkey, Iran and Russia. The process of regional reconciliation started with MbS opening embassy in Baghdad, to reach out to the Shiia leader Al-Sadr. This September in UN a very public embrace between Syrian and Bahrein foreign ministers. Bahrain Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmad made a number of statements to the effect of getting involved in Syria, refusing to call Assad government “regime”. He said that Bshrein deals with governments not those seeking to overthrow them. He also said that Syria must take control over its entire territory. A message to Idlib, but also to US. Kuwait sent a popular media personality to Damascus to interview Assad, calling him “brave person”. He reciprocated calling Emir of Kuwait a wise ruler. But the visit from the President of Sudan Bashar is seen as a message from Saudi Arabia. MbS upon getting to power formed coalition to include big non-gulf states, Egypt and Sudan. He used his influence to have US drop sanctions and no travel ban on Sudan. The inclusion of Red Sea countries in his alliance is strenghtening his hand in negotiating with US on the outcome of Yemen war. This weakened countries like UAE that often fought in South Yemen against Saudi supported forces.
The significsnce of Bahrain reaching out is trully manifold— currently Saudis keep military there to orotect the Sunni rulers from the rebellion if its Shia population. Keeping 80% of populace oppressed is not realistic, and as Saudis reached out to Iraq, Bahrein is reaching out to Shia led Assad government — giving signals to its own population that is supporting Assad. This will bring changes to Bahrein, a thaw with Shia workd — not welcome news to Washington’s Fifth Fleet there. In the meantime, border with Jordan has been reopen, and Jordan reopened its embassy in Damascus, with many more to follow. Keep in mind that Turkey has a base in Iraq and Qatar, and in process of opening one in Sudan. Qatar officials recently visited Riyadh.
The decision — while always subject to neicon intrigue, is now something Trump has to defend as he did North Korea. It is getting interesting .
One of your best posts and almost no typos! Keep it up!
Abandoning Deir-ez-Zor and Al-Tanf? Us-backed groups have been defeated in both areas. Has Trump finally had enough? I’ll believe it when I see it.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13970926000221
What I noticed is that Hollywood scum like Mia Farrow have been roped in to oppose der Trümpfer’s proposed withdrawal¶. That’s understandable. After all, if Amerikastan withdraws from Syria, it might then withdraw from Afghanistan, Iraq, and South Korea, and if *that* happens then the entire rationale for the Amerikastani military industrial complex∆ might be called into question. And *that* in turn would affect the ability of Raytheon and Lockheed to make money, so that would never do!
¶ I’ll believe it when I see it happen, not before.
∆ The same military industrial complex that funds Hollywood action movies and provides weapons, uniforms, training, and troops to serve as extras.
The announced withdrawal may actually portend a major attack on Iran. Removing the troops from Syria would be undertaken because they may be vulnerable there in such a situation.
If Israel doesn’t bitch up a storm, I’d have to agree.
Or, maybe it’s an all station call for another chemical attack, like those which accompanied the last such announcements.
Merry Christmas, Justin. I really mean it. If Trump follows through (big if), you’ll finally have some evidence to lord over us cynical naysayers. I for one would love the opportunity to be proven wrong about the bastard.
Now turn the goddamn comment section on so we can bitch about Yemen.
The US walks away with another Mideast country rubbled behind. At least the defense budget can be lowered by the cost of war fighting in Syria..right ?
Another “victory” for The Exceptional Nation” (and of course, their Mideast Puppetmaster.)
Until the revolution that’ll have to do.
Aman, but I have a feeling he’ll leave behind some spooks and drones to counter Hezbollah.
It seems to me that most journalists and the hired help here and commentors here too, write from an ostensibly geographic view of analysis. Charting the topography of surface events. But Bianca seems to tear off the surface plain and pulls out all the wires and strings and she shows us the connections not dreamed of by you or I, so as to create an entirely new perception of the underlying mechanics and present a largely unrecognized cause and effect which greatly enriches our scope of understanding. Does She Always Get It right….???? I really don’t think that my usual shallow understanding of the tectonics of what seems to be, the mostly corrupt statecraft. Being played out on the world stage like the tides that ebb & flow controlled by unseen forces that are apparent only by the occurrence of movements themselves.
For me, some of her purported political constructs are so minute, esoteric and beyond my casual engagement, that I despair and tell myself that maybe I should give up my attempts at understanding what is actually going on in the world of foreign affairs and take up baseball or hockey where there seems to be far more unstanderable transactions. But I have zero interest in seeing humas strive to accomplish within the created construct of what I see as “empty” gamesmanship. Perhaps someday I will find the will to unrevel all the great historical events which beckon the curious and suspicious wanderers like the assassination of JFK and nine 11…… to name a few. Till that time I will come here and try to keep current and try to understand and adjust my scope to include what Bianca tears out of events for our edification.
it’s a start
I doubt Prez. Trump has the Ballz to stick with this decision,,he will cave to the likes of Graham and the other Ghouls in DC that love war and the money, power, it creates for them.
Let’s see how long this lasts. Surely any moment his “impressive generals” will have a word with him and then the whole thing will be put on hold.
Please, please, President Trump, show them you really are the commander in chief, and tell them them all to shut up. A real commander in chief would demand compliance with his order and not accept all the whining and foot-dragging.
I love the pre-Christmas timing. Pure political genius (if it works out. ;-} )
Excellent! I just hope “full” includes special forces, arms transfers and bribes that keep the pointless conflict in Syria continuing.
And how many mercenaries will remain? And what about Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Ukraine, and the 150+ other supposedly sovereign nations we continue to infest with our troops? I’ll believe this when it actually happens. For now I suspect its just a diversion for something far worse that the government is doing behind the scenes somewhere.
We’ll see…