President Trump seems to be backing away from his previous doubts that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is behind the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. In comments to the Wall Street Journal, Trump said of the prince’s involvement “he is running things and so if anybody were going to be, it would be him.”
Trump said he remains convinced that King Salman had no advanced knowledge of the incident. He says the prince denied involvement to him several times and that “I really want to believe them,” though those denials are clearly losing credibility.
The prince, meanwhile, is trying to shift attention away from him. In his own comments Wednesday, he insisted that the killing was a “heinous crime” and that there could be no justification. He promised to punish any guilty people involved.
Khashoggi was killed by a 15-man kill team sent by Saudi Arabia to meet him at the consulate. Though they deny the crown prince knew, the team included a number of members of his personal security team.
Plot sickens. There are basically two theories on the reason behind the spectacle called Kashoggi murder. One, Prince approved it himself in order to create a crisis for Washington foreign policy elite. Those that were never happy with Crown Prince Nayan sacking. What would be the purpose? To give Trump More space for less ideological and more business oriented policy. Another theiry, it is a job of MsS enemies, ousted supporters of Nayaf, especially his circles in The Ministry of Interior, his former power base. While I leaned first towards first theory, now I am starting to see the outline that sounds more like the second. This may be the internal attempt to cause regime change — helped by the outside factors, alternativelly threatening and promising adherence to arms deals. The problem with this version is — sooner or later, given the links between previous ruler and CIA, fingers will be pointing at potential shadow regime changers, and we will be accused if Kashoggi murder by participating in the plot. Already, such insinuations have started. With Trump wobbling and siding with regime changers — does not look good. Trump oraising Kung, while throwing his son under a bus — is being transparent. The message to old man, appoint another Crown Prince who will be to our liking. If this version takes traction, watch Erdogan turn on a dime and accuse us of coup attempt in Saudi Arabia, just as he accussed US of orchestrating failed coup in Turkey.
The oroblem for US — if regime change fails, and Crown Prince survives, this may usher an era of Erdogaization of Saudi politics. It all depends just how mych money Saudis may lose, and who will lise it, as opposed to Saudi money saved by not buying more weapons for Yemen war. Things can get very complicated for US if the Crown Prince is not defeated.
Also, the Harriri affair — upon lioking closer at it, what on earth was ruler of UAE doing at the time hosting Harriri? Who exactly kidnapped Harriri? And it us very funny how gard are we to believe that the two rulers of Saydi Arabia and UAE are such bossim buddies, when in fact UAE is doing everything possible to dislodge Saudis from Aden to Oman border, leaving Saudis to fight Houthis and stop humanitarian aid by blickade of Hodeidah. And especially as it was Saudi businessmen money that is present in regional center in the South, Mukkala. By playing off Saudis and UAE against each other in Yemen, bthere us a possibility that — just as Suez was bad news for British Empire, Bab Al Mandeb may be bad news for our game of thrones.
Too complicated. Khashoggi had been too chummy with the disappeared princes and was trying to find out what had happened to them. If my theory is correct then these princes are no longer all alive.
I do no believe a word of a narrative Kashoggi was peddling. He was all over the place, making things up as he went. Disappearing princes’ is as credible story as the tale of poisoned Russian ex-spy. Very recently Kashoggi was more focused on organizing “opposition”, a creature of convenience for media warfare. Bottom line, Kashoggi was an irritant, but a minor one. On the other hand, his uncle was a power broker for US military sales, and like some other pre-Nayaf era powerhouses was sidelined. Nayaf era ushered in bureaucrats, obedient but not powerful in their own right. Nayaf was known, and proudly so, as our CIA man in Riyadh. As Kashoggi and others like him did not reconcile themselves to loss of power, it was natural that they were easy pray for those that want to undo Crown Prince MbS. And it is not only internal opposition that is getting organized, but more importantly — those in US and other globalist circles that were furious after sudden palace coup in which the Council that decides on heredity of the throne and hierarchy of top posifions made unprecedented move to oust our favorite, Nayaf. Since, hope you noticed, all the evils were ascribed to MbS even though it was Nayaf that authorized them. Take ill fated Qatar policy blunder. Tump initially even took credit for it. But after MbS took over, while continuing the mantra, saw to it that meeting in Cairo changed all the hard conditions put before Qatar and changed them into — principles.
And while MbS has been predictably beligerant as neocon universe wanted him to be — he was not trusted. Why? He reached out to China and Russia, and it is suspected opened secret channel to Iran via a newly opened Saudi Embassy in Baghdad.
It looks more and more like the job of MbS enemies, counting on pressure on Saudi Arabia to do the rest. Trump is backing down by the hour. He invested heavily into personal diplomacy to insure MbS does not wobble on Yemen or Iran. I do not think Trump cared about MbS cutting lose many Islamic cults in Syria. Evidenced by Turkey picking them up. Especially largest, Jaish Al Islam.
News from Saudi Arabia, plot to kill Kashoggi has been planned. Just as Erdogan said all along. Now, it is going to be a cliff hanger. Who will be fingered? If I know anything about the Kingdom, they are conservative in politics and do not make abrupt changes. Until they felt endangered, and removed MbNayaf. I doubt that they will approve of change now, under external pressure. Internally, there will be a day of reckoning, as such divisions are not desirable in the elites. Let us think of basics — Saudi Arabia now supplies only 9% of US oil import. Its largest customer is China. Saudis invested quite a bit in Russia in order to get it on board to stabilize oil market. Can Saudi Arabia change that dynamic? Not really. China is putting pressure on Saudis to sell on Shanghai oil futures, and accept gold yuan form of payment. This may be a plus for Saudis, as it opens Chinese markets for investments, but a big negatjve in its relations to US.
Any bets on the actual stability of the key council that suppkrts the throne? Because if they are solid — King is free to givehus son all the powers to go after whoever will be fingered as the conspirator. And that will give Erdogan a great megaphone to draw comparison with the attempted coup in Turkey.
The real proof of panic is the decision of Merkel and Macron to meet with Putin and Erdogan in Turkey on Syria. This shows hiw damaging US-Saudi crisis is for the regional position. I have no doubt that the powers that propel NATO and EU have dispatched the two. But thus is far cry from them being in a position to talk down their noses to those who put their countries treasure and soldiers lives on the line to end terrorism in Syria. As Lavrov said, they will just compare notes. These are dangerous times, both here before elections and globally. Losers will try anything to hang on where strong and claw back where losing.
Damage to Saudi is done Change of leadership will not do anything . MbS will not be killed even if deposed He has forces loyal to him A war that started with displacing other princes have only got worse for the dynasty . Unless US occupies the country, Saudi and the rest of ME will be lost . Detailing corruption of Erdogan will not stop his popularity in Turkey . Just like Trump base will not give up on Trump. Turkey should have demanded the lift of blockade on Qatar, public announcement of rapprochement to Iran by Saudi and denial ( privately by Turkey to Saudi ) of bailout to Pakistan who then would have moved out of Saudi nexus.
We, more than likely, were behind the coup attempt in Turkey, or at a minimum, knew it was being planned and never even told the leader of our NATO ally.
Also likely filth like Eric Prince were involved, with no US government Intel involved at all. It is long past time to strip US trained spec op dirtbags of US citizenship when they hire out as mercenaries.
Suez = also bad news for France and Israel. Last President to stand up to Israel = Eisenhower.
Trump puts blame on the prince because “he is running things”. Good for him. Now look in the mirror.
Sounds like a couple of mob bosses dividing up their turf.
Who gives a shit?
And Why?