Following some conflicting media reports on Sunday about the Idlib Province buffer zone, Turkish-backed Syrian rebel group Failaq al-Sham has issued a subsequent statement denying that they’d withdrawn at all from the buffer zone area, calling reports they had a “lie.”
On Sunday, Failaq al-Sham issued a statement ruling out withdrawing from the buffer zone, or removing any of the weapons they have stored there, despite Turkey having a deal obliging them to do so.
While that statement is in keeping with what happened, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights had claimed the group was the first to start withdrawing from the area. There was also reports of Failaq al-Sham withdrawing from some parts of Aleppo Province, which the group is also denying.
In addition to Failaq al-Sham, the buffer zone would also require pullouts from two jihadist factions, the smaller of which has also ruled out doing so. The largest faction, al-Qaeda, has not commented at all, but shows no signs of a pullback either.
This could easily mean that the Turkey-Russia deal in Idlib has failed outright, and might put a military offensive back on track for the area. Syria was keen to expel the last of the rebels, but Turkey had warned them against trying to do so.
I thought this was already covered in another article by Jason Dietz. I remember posting analysis of the news. Since this seems to be the neocon news not going away, here is the short analysis. These groups are NOT SUPPOSED TO WITHDRAW, THAT IS THEY ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE. They are only required to give up heavy weapons, meaning ling range artillery. Which is already done. These groups used to be armed and financed by Al-Qaeda (translate, the collective West, mostly UK and France). They switched to Turkey. But they are staying put, and if HTS (Al-Qaeda intends to break out, it will have to fight them firsr. It is insane to even think that Turkey and Russia want to depopulate the buffer zone! And leave it open for HTS ir even YPG with US help to seize! So, let us stop with neocon spread misinformation suggesting that the Turkish supported rebels, eho depend on Turkey now for everything — food, arms, money, telecom and defence — are defying Turkey and siding with HTS? Likely story, wishfull thinking. Anything to make it look like Turkey is not sucessful.
Let us niw recall the operation Turkey led against YPG in Afrin. For weeks on end, YOG was described as invincible, Turkey bogged down in mountains. My information about Turkey seizure of borders and stopping the smuggling from Turkish PKK, through Afrin YPG onto Idlib and beyond was considered outlandish. The proposals by Rusdia and Syria to YPG to lay arms and allow Syria to take control of borders, ridiculed. Then the truth became obvious. Majority of Kurd population did not support YPG but wanted reintegration with Syria and avoid Turkish occupation. This is why YPG lost spectacularly and folded fast, Today, quietly, Afrin is restoring Syrian institutions, with Turkey controlling majot transit routes and borders. Idlib will be similar. Some villages prefer Damascuus affiliation, other former islamists with strongmen leaders prefer the protection of Turkey before they trust Damascus. What will remain is hard core Western armed and politically protected HTS. They will fold eventually due to the lack of supplies and fighters. Whatever groups they bought with money and arms will gradually melt away. Fighters and their families will slinker out using the checkpoints established for the purpose by Turkey and Russia already one year ago. Unless we see a bold provocation by neocons (such as threatenjng blocade of Russian oil exports), or US NATO rep claiming we could take out Russia’s nukes — or another provication in Syria, not many options are left to change outcome in Syria. Israel is now skating on thin ice, and needs to mind its own security. Or even its own internal politics, as Russian immigrants are not that amused.