A deal reached by Turkey and Russia sought to avoid a military confrontation in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib Province with a ceasefire and the creation of a demilitarized zone. This deal is looking shaky now, with reports that one of the substantial rebel groups has rejected the idea.
Huras al-Din, one of the larger Islamist factions, has announced that they will totally refuse to comply with the new deal, which would require them to withdraw from parts of their territory in the demilitarized zone, and move heavy weapons out of the area.
This is going to be a big obstacle, but a bigger one is looming. The largest Islamist group in Idlib, al-Qaeda, has yet to comment at all on their intentions, and if they also reject the deal, it effectively will mean that Russia, Turkey, and presumably Syria will be launching the offensive the deal was meant to avoid just the bring objecting jihadist groups in line.
Selling the deal is a big problem, as even the Turkey-dominated rebel factions offered only tepid support. They said they will “cooperate” with the pact, but ruled out ceding any territory. This might not be a problem, since Turkey is likely to ensure the demilitarized zone doesn’t cost their allies too much.
The information is getting from curious to bizzare. Huras al-Din is not a group worth mentioning. And to portray this as an obstacle is a joke.
Al-Qaeda is NOT a Syrian based Islamist group. Foreign controlled entity, changing their name already two times, never fooled anyone. It is STILL considered to be a terrorist organization by UN, US, all US allies, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Iraq — name it. Not deals EVER applied to Al-Qaeda. And even thought US and allies TECHNICALLY do not support this UN designated terrorist organization, shamelessly are supporting it by all means possible, including the theatrical White Helmets, with imbedded special ops, and massive media propaganda bemoaning and shedding tears over their losses.
So, how does it matter that Al-Qaeda is agreeing or not? It is only a position of US and allies, so what is new here?
As for other Syrian Islamist groups that supposedly gave only tepid support, how does that matter. Their “tepidity” is stemming mostly from their fear of their more radical elements, and fear that US would pay off or otherwise convince their more radical elements to split off. So, being a bit subdued about a deal with Russia and Turkey is just prudent. But the reality is as follows: the LARGEST Islamist group, Jaish Al-Islam, is now under Turkish control. In fact, recently, Turkey managed to get the leader replaced, in clear effort to move the organization from war footing, to the political process, giving them security umbrella to transition. Turkey now required all the groups that came under its tutelage to wear uniforms, and be under ONE, Turkish command, taking away all control from unaccountable factional elements. As for not getting out of “their” territory, it is really not true. They can stay, but not keep heavy weapons, and the kind of ammunition defined by the buffer area.
This will be process. Turkey — not US and Kurds will control most of the Syrian territory with Turkey. Manbij is still the bone of contention, and once Idlib has been stabilized, it is only a matter of time before Turkey takes on border towns along its north-eastern border. Kurds have taken control of those villages and townships, in order to keep open corridor to Turkish Kurds, and that was the smuggling route to Syria’s Idlib, Aleppo, and Mediterranean coast. Not any more. So, once Al-Qaeda runs out of supplies, as they already have, the calls for peaceful resolution to acknowledge Al-Qaeda will not be effective. Basically, what is happening right now is Turkey is peeling off the last of Syrian groups that Al-Qaeda kept supplied and that served political purposes — to make it look like they are Syrian based. Turkey will peel them off now with the buffer zone, as A-Qaeda positioned such groups forward, to protect them. But now, these groups have OPTIONS, as Turkey has more to offer then the loser, Al-Qaeda. The process is tedious, but as will the rest of Syria, majority of areas were pacified through cutting deals with local strongmen, and their militias. This will be no different, and no actions will be taken until — using buffer zone, civilians will have plenty of opportunity to leave Al-Qaeda areas. And as before, area will be first chopped up in sections, creating more exits for civilians, and forcing Al-Qaeda to defend on multiplied fronts.
So, cheer up. Setting up peacekeeping is slow and boring. But effective. What should concern US is that all the militant groups Turkey is putting under its command will be more numerous then Kurdish forces, and unless US wants to step in to fight against former Syrian rebels under Turkish control to protect the enlarged territory under “Kurd” control, even as under 2% are actually Kurdish population — it will get tricky. And as US is using Israel more and more as a proxy, Russia has made it clear that it will no longer turn blind eye to this Israeli interference into Syrian affairs. So, it really it will be the matter of the will of US and Israel to escalate, and bear the consequences.
WoW….!!!!!! Always refreshing to get Bianca”s slant on the madness.. Just can’tloo [ believe she affords the time to follow this stuff.
Pompeyo on NPR prattling on about how Iran is the biggest exporter of terror in the cozmosss.. But his pals the Saudis did a hell’of a job with those planes THEIR PILOTS flew into the buidling at round ZERO… Is it even possible that even these guys can sell this Iran terror malarkey. …..????????
I do follow details. Cannot help it. But never underestimate the power of ZEALOTS— especilly as they are used to impunity. The complete lack of accountability of our ruling elites is the key characteristics of globalism. Both parties respond to dog whistles of the money class, and it matters not a bit that failure after failurre is the outcome. In fact, failures have become useful. The more wars, mire refugees and economic migrants, creating distress accross Europe and in US. Dustress is good from corporate point of view. The more “diversity” the less cohesive population that will make political mouthpieces of the money class scared of electirate. The more such influx, the mire pressure on schools, health care, social services, kaw enforcement — and the mire discord between the old timers and the newcommers. Lower wages. Even in high tech — immigration if skilled labor is keeping pay down. And no matter what, they willl keep their wars going, a steady supply of money into their pockets. And kerp us scared, to approve largest military budgets. And the destitute in the Middle Est and Africa will be recruited into “rebels” for little salary, food and shoes. Just teach them how to use weapons — the cheapest military on earth.
The people do not like it? Who cares. Global elite, propped up by globalised politicians, and ensbled by hlobalist media and academia, what can really endanger them?
Yet, Trump did. On purpose or not. He made it clear that there is a deep state and their swamp enablers. He made it clear that media lies. That mass immigration is not good. And sovereignity the only way to controll your own affairs. Some sacred cows are not that sacred any more.