A widely expected military offensive against rebel-held Idlib Province in northern Syria has been canceled, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. This follows a deal reached between Russia and Turkey to establish a new buffer zone in the area.
The deal will see a 15-25 km wide buffer zone established between government and rebel territory, inside Idlib Province. The rebels are to leave this area, which will be jointly patrolled by Turkey and Russia, and are to withdraw all heavy weapons from the area.
This deal aims to both push the rebels further back toward the Turkish border, and to preclude a military confrontation with Turkey itself, as they’ve been reinforcing their own positions in Idlib in recent days.
The delays any reckoning for what’s left of the rebel-held territory, but still appears not to have any specific associated plan for addressing the territorial dispute, nor the presence of a substantial al-Qaeda force in Syria, beyond pushing them back a bit and starting a new buffer zone.
In the meantime, this will both mean an end to the Syrian and Russian airstrikes against the province and put rebel artillery farther away from the rest of the country, limiting civilian casualties. Whether a deal results afterwards is anyone’s guess, but there still appears to be little interest in direct talks on either side.
This is a good step, however I doubt it resolves the problem. The 30,000 terrorists in Iblib will never stop attacks.
I’m sure there are at least some die-hard jihadists there, but the more obvious it gets that they’re throwing their lives away for nothing, the fewer that will be. Syria and Russia get to move forward with Turkey as an ally instead of an enemy, towards shared goals, with the terrorists increasingly contained and marginalized. The Saudis might keep funding jihadists for other goals even if overthrowing the Syrian govt won’t ever happen, but if they can’t ship in weapons there’s not much damage they can do.
The title should probably have been “Offensive in Syrias Idlib postponed…”.
That said, your comment is precisely correct.
The Russians and Syrians have won, and they can afford to be patient. Civilians in Idlib will have a chance to get to safety, while both the al Qaeda types and the Syrian Sunnis, ie the “rebels”, will get to think over their predicament and figure out how to have a future.
It is a smart move. In retrospect —?the entire noise about invasion may have been tactical, provoking utterly predictable US reaction.
Turkey and Russia established checkpoints already last year around Idlib. It is not true that buffer zone will result in anyone being pushed closer to Turkey. Afrin operation was critical to securing Idlib. The point is — Al-Qaeda cannot be resupplied. Humanitarian corridors will be established for food and medicine, but there will be no means of resipplying militants. This will be the period of civilian movements — while Al-Qaeda will be treated as a terrorist organization. I think Turkey will continue to peel off various smaller groups away from Al-Qaeda. Fir that, Turkey has already set up the system. Its biggest sucess was getting Jaish Al-Islam under its control. Why is this significant? Because the emigrees propped up by US snd Saudi Arabia now have no group with a large presence to take under its wing. And because of Al-Qaeda status as terrorist organization it is not possible to actually represent them. Only “humanitarian” concern was possible excuse to save Al-Qaeda, but it cannot be for a long time. No supplies, and no means of breaking out — it will fester until somebody decides to own them.
People like you say everything Putin does is a “Smart Move”. It’s bullshit!
Baldy, see if you can find even ONE smart move made by any POTUS this century.
Can you remember a Russian leader besides Putin that’s been in power longer? Hahaha…Poor Russians. Hey but, at least they don’t have to sell energy and rockets that are being used to destroy them to there enemies because, of all the things they invent that people want to buy. Hahaha .At least there economies on a roll and the Russian rubles strong, hahaha.At least there decision to help Trump get elected is paying off,Hahaha.Atleast all that showing off of its modified nuclear arsenal and mock bombing presentation of Florida scared America and didnt start a massive military build up .Hahaha.Now what was that point about decisions you where trying to make?
And you sound like US and Uk establishment. In the absence of any ideas, solurions or answers, they have the magic word: Putin. As if the public will be so mesmerized by their creative crap and accept assorted stupidities thay daily dish out for public to consume.
Everything Putin has done so far ***HAS BEEN*** a smart move. The guy is a world-class statesman, as cool as a cucumber, and a f*cking brilliant and patient strategist.
If he were president of the US, the swamp would be drained, the Neocons would be in jail, and the American government would be a government for the American people rather than Israel’s b*tch.
Maybe he has not always been totally brilliant with the best possible moves, but he has rarely messed up completely. “Don’t mess up” is a good first step. Obama had something like that as first principle too.
Obama? Who tripled the drone bombings on the Afghan-Pakistan border? Who increased aid to Saudi Arabia’s genocidal war, and wanted to invade Syria? Whose great plan was ethnic warfare against the U.S. by keeping up the mass immigration, so the hated Whitey would become a minority? Who did everything he could to stoke racial tension, inserting himself in every issue to flame the Black activists’ anti-White hatred? Who caused the BLM criminals to murder police officers? How many died because of that scum? And how will the people ever be able to repay the enormous debt he racked up, so he could pretend that he “saved” the economy while massively increasing the government’s annual interest payments permanently? While showering money on the big banks who financed his campaign? “Don’t mess up,” LOL.
It was Obama’s first principle. Then he listened to Hillary at State, and a Republican he left in Defense, and he got turned around. Now we seem to be left with Democrats more hawkish even than Republicans, all the worst from the Obama years.
LOL! Putin has been in place for 20 years and his apologists still complain about the “fifth column” in Russia. (their version of the swamp)
Man, you sure are bitter, baldric. Meanwhile Putin tripled the Russian people’s purchasing power in a few years, he defeated the oligarchs, and he is navigating the country despite massive pressure from Washington. He protected South Ossetia, retrieved Crimea, and saved Syria. But some are never happy.
Idk.Russia threatened to attack installations where Americans are stationed. Rebels where supplied,trained,F-35’s where flown in and destroyers where locked and loaded. I’d say it was a smart move on Russia’s part,if it wants to keep its image abroad.
Bianca is right. “Provoking utterly predictable US reaction.” Why don’t people think of this? The mid-term elections are coming, and Trump is ACHING to pull the trigger. Because the ONLY thing that makes the media say something positive about him is when he attacks Israel’s targets, those few governments in the Middle East who still dare support the Palestinians.
Trump would LOVE an excuse to bomb Damascus right now. And kill the Iranians who have sacrificed so much to save Syria, despite the devastating economic warfare against their own country. Trump would 100% bomb Syria if they liberated Idlib from al-Qaeda.
“Look, civilians killed! That’s totally different from when we carpet bombed Mosul, obliterated Raqqa, and helped Saudi Arabia starve the Yemenis to death. Now we can bomb Damascus!”
And Bianca is right in al-Qaeda not being re-supplied. Turkey will want to separate the Turkmen from them. And who from the outside will join al-Qaeda in Idlib now? They’ll get no new flow of recruits. Time is on Syria’s side in Idlib. This is something U.S. commanders should think of a bit more: You don’t always have to attack. You don’t always have to get the headlines to boost your career. Sometimes it’s better to wait.
The only downside is that the al-Qaeda members who’ll sell their weapons and go to Turkey as “refugees”, like others before them, will want to move on to the big prize, Western Europe. Where they can get free money and access to defenseless White women.
Russians pussied out. Again.
So you agree with Bolton that war is really welcome and good?
no they help their ally without blowing billions in a quagmire. and that takes time.
That’s the exact truth.
That is overconfident. This is more the territory of Field Marshal von Manstein’s forehand vs backhand.
What will Mr Security Bolton do if an opportunity for offensive interference is lost?
The US, UK, France and Israel are acting to protect their al Qaeda allies and proxies with yet more lying propaganda and trying to revive their jihad to unseat President Assad, who is largely supported by Syrians and whose government is the only thing between the Christian and Alawite population and genocide. The goal is to extend the swath of carnage, chaos, civilizational collapse and anarchy they’ve imposed in Iraq, Yemen and Libya across West Asia and North Africa, leaving Saudi Arabia and Israel as the only viable states. To these racist warmongers, the deaths of millions of Muslim and Christian Arabs and Iranians matters not at all. They might very well succeed in prompting World War III, pitting themselves against Syria, Iran, Russia and China. Let’s hope that moral decency and common sense prevail.
I guess you don’t understand the chaos America and it’s allies can create in Syria. Russia is trying to create an image that it can contend with any adversary in any theater. Imagine a Syria with a dictator that’s been assisinated, a re-supplied rebel insurgency backed by America and Turkey’s airforce, constant bombing raids on Syria’s military infrastructure from Israel and missiles delivered from destroyers on key Syrian military installations. Think that image Russia’s desperately trying to craft would hold up? Putin is calculated and knows starting WW3 is the easy part ,winning WW3 that’s the hard part for everyone involved.
“Imagine a Syria with a dictator that’s been assisinated, a re-supplied rebel insurgency backed by America and Turkey’s airforce, constant bombing raids on Syria’s military infrastructure from Israel and missiles delivered from destroyers on key Syrian military installations.”
Imagine an Israel obliterated by a couple dozen Russian nukes. Imagine Uncle Sam standing there with his dick in his hand, unable to do anything, because the entire Russian nuke forces are on hair-trigger alert. Then watch as the world — and the US — heaves a sigh of relief because the cancer at the heart of the till then unending violence in the Mideast has been burned out.
This is precisely how both the Zionist subversion of the US govt by AIPAC and the Neocons, and the “problem” in the Mideast will play out — the Zionists are working towards Israel’s destruction even as we speak. Sometime in the next 20 years.
When the Israelis/Zionists succeed in developing a nuke delivery system that the Russians cannot effectively defend against, the Russians will be compelled to pre-empt its deployment.
[I’m curious to see if Thomas will delete this as “hate speech”, so I’m cross-posting it to my blog “whimsical dog” (no caps)].
You’re not “curious.” You know that I don’t delete stuff that doesn’t violate Antiwar.com’s guidelines, and you know that your post doesn’t. You’re just trying to fool other people into believing that it’s stuff like this, rather than actual hate speech, that gets deleted. That’s a stupid stunt, but stupid stunts aren’t guidelines violations.
However, pointing people to the site where you post your hate speech when it gets deleted here is such a violation, so I’ll delete that part.
All Russian military installations aswell as Syria’s installations would be crushed, re-enforcments sunk and nukes would be flying out of Turkey, St.Petersburg would be burned to ashes.NATO would start a bombing campaign all nuclear using the bases on Russia’s doorsteps. Nukes would be launched from Germany, France, Britain and that’s just the first hour. Putin understands this, I don’t understand why you can’t. It’s a no win for everyone involved.
Israel constantly runs the risks of aggressive action. It seems to feel invulnerable. Whether as a few Russian nukes or something else, a huge surprise is inevitable. Then afterwards it will seem so obvious. However, it does seem unlikely that Russia will go to the nuclear option for this. It will be something else pushed too far that gets them.
I view this as overall a mistake, but it does appear that Russia decided to “starve them out” rather then “kill them all” – at least for now. Certainly this is a move no one saw coming, which is characteristic of Putin.
There is also the question of whether the deal will actually hold. Supposedly the buffer zone will be patrolled by both Russia and Turkey. We will have to see whether this is at all effective.
What this does do certainly is put the US flat-footed again with no propaganda victory and no justification for a military attack on the SAA. Unless, of course, the White Helmets go ahead and do another false flag “chemical attack”. Whether that happens depends on how the jihadists in Idlib react to this deal, i.e., whether they decide to accept fewer losses or escalate the situation.
The probability of Russia having to engage Turkey was very low in any case. Turkey won’t risk war with Russia other than some provocations like the early jet shootdown.
What Turkey gains from this is limiting the number of jihadists who flee to Turkey without having to actually turn on them which would anger them and make Turkey their target. So Erdogan managed – for the moment at least – to stave off that major problem.
Again, I view this as a mistake but we’ll see how it turns out. I suspect the jihadists won’t be adequately controlled by this deal and I’m sure Assad is unhappy with it as well. This just kicks the can down the road for a while.
Turkey shoots down Russian plan and Putin capitulates to Ankara.
Israel is occasion for shooting down of Russian plane, and Putin says his buddy Netanyahu is in no way responsible.
Want to know why no one takes the Kremlin seriously?
It is too much to say the offensive is cancelled. Delayed. Pending developments. A wide variety of developments are possible, but almost all of them end with an offensive finally to secure the province for Assad.
Peace is great but what is going to take the place of the loss of those good paying jihadi jobs? Economic terrorism is the world’s greatest terrorist.