Days after Russian military officials criticized the US for adding to the number of destroyers deployed off the coast of Syria, coming amid mounting tensions and US threats to attack, Russia has announced naval wargames off the coast for its own substantial naval presence.
Russia has an estimated 25 ships and 30 jets that will take part in the wargames. The boats are mostly smaller frigates, but Russian officials have described this as the largest naval presence they’ve had near Syria since 2015.
Russian officials have expressed concern that the US is about to attack Syria, which follows several days of the US threatening to attack. Russia’s naval presence is clearly intended as a deterrent, if not for the US attack, than at least to preclude an attack on Russian targets.
This all comes amid reports Syria is about to launch an offensive against the rebel-held Idlib Province. The US has been talking up intervening if a chemical attack happens, while Russian media has reported a staged chemical attack might be planned to justify the US attack.
The most likely speculation about Russian ideas I’ve seen is that they do not threaten to attack the Western strike forces, nor to fight them. Instead, they mean to strike at the Western positions in Syria with stand off weapons, in the same way the West does to Assad. Side by side, they’d all send missiles sailing off into Syria to hit both sides.
The US might kill a few, but some of its own would die too. That is the threat, anyway.
Those “smaller frigates” are mostly armed with ship-killer missiles, making them a lot more dangerous than they might seem. Plus there are allegedly at least two Russian subs in the area and Russian jets armed with the new Kinzhal missile circling the Caspian Sea able to hit targets in the Med or Syria. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few Russian long-range bombers will be tasked to maintain air cover as well.
It looks like Russia believes the tire has hit the road: if the US wants to stop Assad from winning, a large-scale attack on Syria is the US only option. And Russia means to put up enough of a threat of WWIII to prevent that. If Trump attacks, it is likely to be another “firecracker” exercise with no real damage because he doesn’t have the nerve to threaten Russia directly.