Is the United States preparing to attack Iran? On Friday, Defense Secretary James Mattis dismissed this idea as “fiction,” back when the sources were in the Australian military. Yet other US officials have since been quoted as saying the attack is still being considered.
The pretext for this war appears to be the ongoing Yemen War. Last week, Saudi state media claimed that Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked and slightly damaged a Saudi oil tanker. The Saudis have previously alleged the Houthis are tied to Iran, and US media is treating this as some sort of transference, and reporting that Iran attacked the Saudi oil tanker, even though no one alleged that ever happened.
Since the US has spent years presenting oil security as a reason for war with Iran, they are considering using that excuse. Officials say that this would be mostly a Saudi-led attack, with Saudi Arabia and its allies doing the bulk of the fighting, and relying on the US for support.
Officials say this would require a “long-term military effort” against Iran. The US expectations that they might keep their involvement limited to a support role appears particularly unrealistic, given how much the same Saudi-led coalition has struggled to conquer Yemen.
The danger here is that both the US and what it envisions to be its proxy army are going to each go into a war with high expectations for one another, and each get into a much bigger war than they bargained for.
There are few specifics about what form this war would take, as US officials were insisting as recently as a few days ago that they are not interested in regime change in Iran. It is hard to imagine, however, that they could get the major Sunni Arab states to attack Shi’ite Iran with any hope of it being “limited.”
This ought to be fun, well except for the dying. The Saudis haven’t been able to win in Yemen against no army at all. The Iranians have way more army than the Yemenis.
Plus the Iranians can actually fight. This is good news. If the Saudis have to fight then it means no war.
Bolton’s wet dreams.
This is the most ridiculous non-idea I’ve ever heard of.
The “Saudis” means…mercenaries.
With a new government about to take charge in Pakistan, I don’t think Pakistan will want to do KSA’s dirty work anymore.
Pakistan’s parliament unanimously rejected any Pakistani military involvement in the Yemen war in 2015. I doubt you could say that about the US Congress regarding a similar hypothetical vote.
They can always find some flimsy excuse to start a war. I’m concerned this could be the US / Saudi / Israeli response to strong behind-the-scenes push-back they are getting from European allies on Iran sanctions. The world uniting against Iran sanctions would be a costly embarrassment, but few would trade with Iran if we declared war on them. The Saudis are immune from embarrassment and would love the idea of sky-high oil prices. The world could look very different after the smoke clears… it’s a very dangerous game they’re playing, with many lives and livelihoods at stake.
They are immune of embarrassment because they did not embarrass themselves!
Iran is breaking international laws by attacking embassies, diplomats, civilians, trade-ships, and by funding terrorist groups as Hezbollah and Houthis. Iran helps sheltering Al Qaeda leaders and funds them. You can find the Iranian government included in every stinky issue!
Not really… yes Iran supports groups which the US govt questionably labels terrorists. Yes Iran provides some limited support for the Houthis in their struggle for self-determination, and the Houthis recently slightly damaged a Saudi tanker. Meanwhile, the Saudi strategy is to cut off food supply lines to millions of people to starve out the Houthis. Yes Iran has warned that if the US succeeds in blocking sale of their oil, Iran will block the sale of oil by US allies. All that is perfectly fair and reasonable under these circumstances. Check your facts on sheltering Al Qaeda, that’s the Saudis and Israel doing that.
The constant drumbeat in the media claiming Iran is doing all sorts of illegal and awful things has a slight element of truth, but the deeper truth is that this is a totally one-sided demonization campaign, while similar misdeeds by US allies are shrugged off.
The guys that can’t beat a bunch of goat herders in the Yemen are gonna take on Iran?
I think the headline was intended to be humorous.
You’re absolutely right;)
Funny, i don’t see any link to the “Onion”, just to The Times of Israel and then to a CNN article, I suppose to some, the last two might be considered humorous.
Yes, this is one of the more lunatic ideas Bolton and company has come up with. There’s no chance the Saudis would go along with it because they know that Iran will blow the hell out of the oil fields and their oil loading platforms, cutting off their income at a time when their economy is teetering and their internal politics are in flux.
And of course, if they did, Iran would start helping the Houthis directly, which so far they haven’t done much. This would lead to a “second front” for the Saudis which would be very bad for them.
Even if the Saudis think the US is going to “help them”, it would be the US conducting the actual war. I’ve been assuming the US is intent on starting such a war and has been for the last fifteen years.
However, the issue remains Hizballah and Syria. Israel can’t afford to have a war with Iran started – even if they don’t start it, but rely on the US and the Saudis – because it is likely that Hizballah will rain missiles down on Israel, driving the Israeli population into bomb shelters 24×7, wrecking the Israeli economy and pissing off the electorate so they vote out the Likudniks in the next election. Israel can’t afford that, so they’ve been holding off until they and the US could find some way to take out Hizballah and Syria. That’s what the whole Syria crisis has been about. Since Russia intervened, that plan has failed – so far.
But it’s possible Israel thinks they can remain out of it if the Saudis start it. But as I said above, the Saudis are probably not dumb enough to take on Iran even with US help.
At least, let’s hope they aren’t that dumb.
The White House and the Pentagon studied the situation and decided it was just too risky to launch a war with Iran; as Joao Alfriate said, the guys who can’t beat a bunch of goat herders in Yemen are going to take on Iran??
I doubt very much the Saudis are that stupid, all they’d do is beat a fast retreat. They don’t have nearly the weaponry, aircraft and military hardware to take on a nation that’s much more powerful than they are; and the US has now decided not to do so, either (Iran has Russia and China, and possibly India, as allies).
That’s some in-depth analysis Conryan.
They sre not that dumb. Neither is Trump, and Bolton does what he is told. This is North Korean scenario. First give full throated duport to all hawks, and then find out just exactly how far are they themselves prepared to go. In Korean case, neithe South Korea nor Japan were prepared to go the distance. US was free to cut the deal. Trump did a good thing to get out if the agreement with Iran. It was an albatrosd around his neck, with pros and cons blackmailing him whichever way. By removing it — he is free to operate. With Europeans, with Israel or Saudi Arabia or satellite Gulf minions. Let us see who is prepared to go all the way. They are mentioning Egypt — as if Egypt is about to put itself at the mercy of Saudi leadership. Quite funny. Egypt will lead Sunni Arab world in time, never at the behest of Saudi whims. Even Saudi Arabia is not crazy anymore since the court coup that removed old crown prince. Israel is still trying. Protecting ISIS ‘s last stand, here and there causing problems in Syria, trying to keep US in. Trump is consistently saying he wants out. Israel is trying to animate US on Iran, whining about Hezbollah. Generally trying to stir up something, anything to make US expand its mideast presence. But now, with nobody but Israel urging on – Trump may have to have a little talk with this good friend. Dear friend, nobody in the region is with you.
Israel will go desparate and provoke Russia. So far Russia ignored their antics as if annoying flies. Anything more serious would be a fat mistake. But I cannot count neocons out.
It may be “on the table” but that’s likely where this dumb idea stays.
Absolutely. Bonkers Bolton may have his wet dreams of destroying Iran, but that’s all how far it’ll go; Trump’s now considering a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Rouhani, to discuss easing the tensions in the ME that have been ongoing for a long time.
Trump is proposing a Middle East, anti-Iran type NATO Force. Saudi Arabia and five other Gulf Arab states, with Egypt and Jordan, are
in talks to set up an alliance that would be backed by the US and focus
on defense and military training. One option being discussed is for a
regional missile shield similar to the Iron Dome system deployed by
Israel. Just another terrorist network for the global arms dealers.
Nothing will come of it. But before that, everybody will squeeze something out of US. This has become a pattern. Like the “Quad” in Pacific.
Saudi led attack on Iran.
Are we watching Saturday Night Live?
Yep. Sure, Russia and China would just watch it as Saudi Arabia gets Israel to urge US to join in. Jus as US is playing a dunmmy bombing Yemen. And I am not sure Saudis are that stupid — such a mistske would cost them dearly. They today cannot survive without Rusdia’s suport of prices, nor China’s market.
It is called “Scenario Planning”. Part of the function of every Strategy team in every military worldwide. Along with 100 other “war” scenarios.
Pakistan invades India, Turkey takes back Cyprus, Muslim Brotherhood takes back Egypt and attacks Israel, hundreds of possible scenarios and many of them require realistic Risk Assessment and Mitigation plans.
What happened to the last nation we tricked into attacking Iran for us? Oh yeah, Iraq. We destroyed that one. Maybe the long term plan is to destroy the Saudis too.
Nahh, it all has to do with racist Israel and cheap gas.
“Don’t you dare criticize us, Israel has the right to threaten Iran and all our neighbors every day, but no one has the right to threaten us. Israel has a right to exist, but the Palestinians do not. Israel has a right to nuclear weapons, but nobody else does. Israel has a right to demand money from the US taxpayer, but nobody has a right to demand anything in return! Israel has a right to bribe and tell other governments what they should do, but no government has a right to interfere with Israel! All what we need from you putzes in DC are those ‘vetoes’ at the UN, that regular US aid check, and to kill our enemies for us! That is your job! Anyone who disagrees is just a filthy Jew-hating anti-Semite who wants Hitler to come back and gas Jewish babies!!!”
Yeah that sort of plan worked like gangbusters in Vietnam. No reason not to do it again, right?
You should know that Iran is everyone’s enemy. Any country that fights terrorism considers Iran as a major threat. Iran uses terrorism to advance its aggressive policies. Iran cannot talk about fighting extremism while its leaders continue to fund, train, arm and facilitate acts of terrorism.
” Iran cannot talk about fighting extremism while its leaders continue to fund, train, arm and facilitate acts of terrorism.”
Ditto for the United States.
What country did the 9/11 hijackers come from? It has slipped my mind. Was it Iran?
It is already clear that 911 is a play. Knowing that 911 is an inside job but continuing to make believe that Saudis are the ones responsible for all that- requires so much time and effort to get it all done!
cookoo
So who? the Iranians? the Jews? the CIA? Soros?
Just name one instance where Saudi missiles had hit Iran? On the other hand, it is acknowledged that Iran is the main source of equipment regarding arms and weapons for their Houthi proxy in Yemen (where they fire Iranian-made missiles) into Saudi lands. As long as Iran views the Shiite Houthis as the legitimate authority in Yemen, they will make sure that they get in power because Houthis’ success is Iran’s success.
Oh don’t be silly, it may be “acknowledged” in certain echo chambers but that doesn’t make it even remotely true.
Do you think that Houthis, with their financial weakness can sit down and make these weapons from scratch? Or, do you think that there are countries other than Iran which support Houthis?
Here is a link to prove that the UN have examined and showed the Iranian parts are within the missiles fired to Saudi Arabia in previous occasion:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-sanctions-un/parts-of-missiles-fired-at-saudi-arabia-came-from-iran-u-n-chief-idUKKBN1JA34H
You might want to read the articles that you link to, the money quote
“However, the United Nations has not been able to determine when the missiles, components or related technology were transferred from Iran and if they violated U.N. restrictions, Guterres said in a biannual report on the implementation of U.N. sanctions on Iran.
Given how poorly the Saudis have performed in Yemen, it is completely ludicrous to think they could lead an attack against Iran. Even if the Saudis were given nuclear weapons, they would find a way to screw up the attack and fail. That immediately tells me this story is BS.
FAKE STORY.