With Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman to visit Russia, there are reports that the two nations have reached a secret deal regarding to presence of Syrian troops in southern Syria, including in the part of the Golan Heights still under Syrian control.
Under this deal, reported on Hadashot TV news, Israel would accept the return of Syrian troops to the Golan area. Russia agrees they will ensure no Iranian or Hezbollah forces will be allowed into southern Syria.
As an aside, Russia is supposed to be planning a statement calling on “all foreign troops” to leave Syria, which includes not just Iranians, but also US and Turkish forces. This is intended to give Israel the ability to claim that Russia agrees on the need for Iranians to leave Syria.
At present Russia is just saying Iranian forces should stay away from the Israeli and Jordanian borders. Israel followed up with their own statement demanding Iran be denied any presence anywhere inside Syria.
Your article creates more questions than it answers, although it’s great, vital news piece….
If Russia says “no foreign troops”, does that include the Russians?
If Israel accepts the return of Syrian troops to the Golan, does that mean the “rebels” in Golan are up the creek without a paddle? Will Israel retire and withdraw its’ rebel friends, or will Assad wind up sending the survivors to Idlib?
If Iranians and Hezbollah stay out of Southern Syria, does that mean Israel will accept Iran and Hezbollah in the North? Will Israel then stop bombing Syria at will? Will the US pull out of Syria and abandon the Kurds? Will the SAA turn it’s attention to Idlib after the south? Will the Turks pull out, they’re pretty entrenched? Inquiring minds want to know.
It’s a curious thing these dithering Israelis. There were no Hezbollah in Syria in 2011, and sure as heck there were no Iranians. What there was, then, was a strong state under Assad, and no need for Iranians.
The war that Israel cheer-led from behind to try and eliminate the last front-line opponent created this problem for them.
The best way to solve it, the quickest way to get Iranians out of Syria- is to let the Allawite regime retake control of the country. The Baathist, secular Assad government doesn’t want a bunch of Persian religious extremists running round with guns any more than Israel does. But allowing Assad to win, allowing Syria to be a normal country again, might also be too big a pill for the Israelis to swallow, after all the trouble they have gone to inciting their American puppets to wreck the country on their behalf.
One wonders if they ask themselves- do we Israelis want to get Iran out, or should we continue to bomb Syria, covertly finance Al Queda, and have our American friends revive ISIS to make sure this war goes on indefinitely?
Gee whiz. Tough choice.
Obviously, in the end, Israel will choose the path of least common sense, least coincidence with their own long-term interests, and most horrific violence for their victims.
As they always do.
We know what Israel wants — and a simple rule is, Israel does not give up on their demands unless they are forced to. Russia stated that Syrian forces must control Jordanian and Lebanese border. Hence — Israel must state jts lositikn.
Lebanese border is secured already by Syria and Lebanon (read Hezbollah). Jordanians border is an important one — to stop infiltration of mercenaries from there.
Jordan is afraid of Palestinians, and no matter how much US leans on them, they will not budge. They will want Syrian army to control border, as Palestinians support SAA, and have their own militias supporting SAA. They just liberated Yarmuk. Should Jordan even mildly equivocate, with over 50% Palestinian population, and just as many in Jordanian Armed forces — Jordan will have a civil war in which the dynasty would not do well.
Russia insists on Syrian Army to control the long standing demarcation on Golan Heights, blocking another source of infiltration. All that means that no Iranian advisors or contractors will be stationed there. This is what Israel will need to accept. Otherwise, in antagknizing Russia, it risks losing occupied Golan.
Iran and Turkey — along with Russia — are guarantors of Syrian peace process. At present, thery are running two parallel processes, one in Astana — negotiating details of each cease fire — and another in Sochi responsible for the constitutional
framework. They will go to UN process in Geneva, when all is agreed to, and internal differences settled. Outsiders, now sitting in Saudi Arabia and Turkey will not have much leverage.
Russia will ask for foreign troups belonging to countries NOT part of peace process endorsed BY SYRIA to leave. Turkey has a vital role in the region along Turkish border. Everyone who follows the conflict closely can clearly see that. What confuses not so thorough observers is Damascus appearance of ambvivalence towards Turkey. But this is a necessary message to Kurds — either you will be part of Syria, or long term occupied by Turkey. This point was made crystal clear in Afrin.
Earlier, Rurkey with Russian help secured Jarabulus-Al-Bab corridor. Kurds and US tried everything to stop them, bolstering ISIS, as the loss of Al-Bab and the corridor meant end of plans to connect Kobane Kurds with Afrin.
The momentary pause in Turkish advance on Manbij and further on Raqqa and Kobane itself — is due to the fact that US and Israel are sorting out their options. With the new rulers in Baghdad, situation is less favorable.
Sure, US and Israel, along with precautions Macron and juvenile Johnson can convince themselves that all is not lost.
But with Lebanese government having an understanding with Russia and — imagined or not — sighting of Russian jets over Lebanon means
Israel’s use Lebanese air space is coming to an end.
US, on the other hand, is still living in a denial. Some political forces want US to go guns ablaze on Syria and Russia. Some see reality, and want to carve out a positive solution.
But here is the problem. Kurds can be emboldened only to a point to get out to Deir Azzor. At the moment Turkey hints end of patience for US coddling Kurds — they will run full speed to Kobane. US knows this. So, how much longer can US nurse the remaining ISIS under its skirts in refugee camp under its control? And to what ultimate end?
Because when Russia asks foreign troups to leave Syria, this will be directed to US, UK , France, Israel and their proxies. Hezbollah, that is Lebanon, is guarding Lebanese border preventing ISIS and other Islamists crossing over. Their leaving is no brainer. Lebanon miraculously avoided confrontation.
Unless those that want war with Russia and China — along with Iran and Turkey
prevail, US and Israel will have to come up with something acceptable to Russia.
Are they waiting to see Idlib offensive to claim another chemical attack? Stupidity is infectious, and promises nirvana. But they may wait a long time. Idlib is now surrounded, and with Afrin under control, there will be no more large scale smuggling of arms from US, using PKK Kurds in Turkey to ferry supplies across Afrin to Idlib.
If Israel and US refuse to withdraw and stop feeding their proxies, there are a number of possibilities Turkey and Russia could do. One, Turkey will advance all the way up its border, decimating YPG as they did in Afrin. Even easier, as Afrin is high majority Kurds, but Kobane wider region is not. Turkey can oust Kurds from Raqqa — where locals already rebelled. This can continue down Euphrates valley as US has no population there to claim protection of democracy. Kurds are 5% or less outside Kobane.
To occupy Euphrares Valley outright — will require large occupation force. This is not polular at home, especially Trump base. Options are narrow. The most likely one — wait till Russia, Iran and Turkey pull off constitutional conference, then look at opportunities.
But Russia and Turkey can up the ante on both US and Israel and wrestle Gaza from Israel — and Israel cannot do a thing about it. US cannot afford to confront Russia over Gaza. Both Israel and US can only lose here, with no plus side.
Russia has simply commenced the process of sorting out what Israel and consequently US want. Because it is only Israel and US with its allies that are foreign forces operating against SAA.
Israel does not want Iranian forces near its borders. Easily done. And many other details can be arranged. So — it is really up to Israel. Thtee factors to ponder. One, will US likely ever to suceed in Syria? Can Russia extend support to Palestinian militias outside the existing ones in Syria, such as in Lebanon, Jordan and Gaza itself? Can Russia help Lieberman come to power using large Russian vote in Israel, and banking on Netaniahu’s unpopularity?
US will do much for Bibi, as US does NOT want Lieberman due to his Russian background. Bibi had an audience with Putin, now it is Lieberman’s turn. Will soldier Lieberman betray Bibi, his Don? Certainly, something is afoot.
In Syrian conflict it will be Israel that will have to decide on its future — future in which US is not the only deciding power.
All forces to leave Syria? Now that is a nice bit of maneuvering by Russia.