The Syrian government’s planned offensive against rebels in their nation’s southwest is a potentially volatile matter, particularly with Israel on the warpath. Yet reports suggest virtually unprecedented indirect talks between Israel and Iran aim to avoid any accidental escalations.
The reports, emerging from the Saudi media, say that Jordan is facilitating the talks at an Amman hotel. Iranian officials are in one room, and Israeli officials are in an adjacent one, with Jordanian mediators carrying messages back and forth.
The plan, as it is starting to take shape, is that Iran will not participate in this offensive by the Syrian military. Israeli officials have suggested there are circumstances in which they would not intervene, but demanded Iran ensure no Shi’ite militias take part at all.
It’s not clear that Iran can deliver that. Despite Israel presenting Shi’ite militias as “Iranian troops” in their statements, most of the militia fighters are not from Iran, nor under any sort of direct Iranian control. It may be desirable for Syria to find a way to keep them sidelined, however, if it means Israel doesn’t meddle in an important southern offensive.
Syria soon to acquire by battles also Daraa! And w.o. military help from Iran!
Ok by me. But i am–i admit–somewhat annoyed because Putin is not supplying Syria with necessary missiles to and once for all time stop Israeli missiles and bombers entering not only Lebanon and Syria, but also any secular Arab state.
Ok by me if Yisrael bombs Saudi Arabia or assassinates bin Salman.
The people of Syria will never forget what Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel and the USA did to them. Syria has become analogous to Poland in the years when Prussia/Germany, Russia, and Austria mercilessly attacked it and even Hungary stole a sliver. Syria will eventually be the birthplace of another Arab nationalist movement. A movement which has a chance of winning if it avoids the blatant mistakes of ISIL.
Russia helped restore the order that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States disrupted with their “regime” change campaign.
Syria fully understand that it has been Israel and the poodle USA that has done all the harm. Israel is quickly becoming an arab nation and that will change everything
“particularly with Israel on the warpath”
That is the only fact that matters. If Israel wants to go to war, it will. We saw that in 1956, in 1967, in the long invasion and occupation of Lebanon, and in the repeated destruction of Lebanon and Gaza.
An excuse is not a reason. The reason is that they want it, that they calculate it to be their advantage.
The only thing that could prevent them from attacking is to change their calculus of their own advantage. Iran alone can’t do that. That would be up to the US, to Russia, and perhaps to the EU. The EU would have to suddenly wake up to its own economic influence over Israel and make Israel believe that. Russia would have to have a threat believed. The US would have to disabuse Netanyahu of his overwhelming influence over US politics, and with Trump that is impossible.
That means that the only practical limitation on an Israeli attack is a Russian threat of war that Israel deems credible. That too is not very likely.
One other big factor. If Israel takes a large number killed the majority religion will become the minority. It will be impossible to play a game to expel enough to regain the majority. The arab majority will treat the present majority with the respect they received. As this looks possible many dual citizens will give up their citizenship. I suspect a very large number of Israel citizens have not been out of manhattan ever. Schumer is not the only seldom see citizen of Israel.
Don’t hold your breath with the hope that Israel will negotiate in good faith
Everyone knew Israel is going to attack when they get the chance.