The Syrian Army has issued a statement today declaring victory in the fight over metro Damascus, saying that effective Monday Damascus and all of its surroundings are “completely secure” and under military and government control.
Expelling rebels and jihadists from suburbs of Damascus has been a priority for awhile. The defeat of rebels in Eastern Ghouta was a major step in that direction, but it was only this weekend, with the evacuation of the last few ISIS fighters, that the whole area was secure.
ISIS forces managed to infiltrate the Yarmouk refugee camp and surrounding area, south of Damascus. The refugee camp, which once housed a large number of Palestinians, has been contested repeatedly since the Syrian War began.
Control over metro Damascus makes it clear that the Syrian government is in a stable position, and not in serious threat of being ousted by the rebellion. With that accomplished, the Syrian military is likely to focus next of paring down rebel control in the few other remaining areas, like Idlib Province.
Can Idlib governorate wait for a while? Or can Syro-Russian alliance ensure that no arms, spare parts get into Idlib?
And if Idlib would come to the negotiation table if Assad steps down? Surely, Assad is no longer needed as much as he had been needed in the previous seven years.
Let’s hope the war in Syria is over!
Idlib would come to the table, the moment that Turkey stops supplying arms and resources. It is sourced from across the border and the only way to stop it is for Assad to chase the Turks back into Turkey and reestablish border control. Another year or so and it will come to pass.
The whole performance is a result of Turkey and the US wanting to steal Syrian territory and wealth.
Assad must consolidate, secure his own base and then move, village by village until every last inch of Syria is under government control.
As for the asinine idea that Assad step down, Assad is the saviour of Syria, the people believe that he can walk on water and raise the dead. If a Presidential election were held tomorrow, he would get +80%.
He is the only reason that Syria exists, that people are returning to their homes, that food and services are being restored.
The war continues until all the foreign supported and created ‘Rebels’ lay down their arms and participate as members of a single united Syria.
Idlib has been for a while now — ever since last Astana — part of a quazi security zone. It is surrounded and puncuated by Turkish-Russian check points. Daily, these check points serve as corridors for population to escape. This is accomplished by Turkey having influence over some groups, and those groups get humanitarian aid, and are intermediaries to hard core militants to bargain for populatiion exit in exchange for goods.
Also, Turkey’s control of Afrin has sealed the border. Afrin was the smuggling center for all US supported rebels along Turkisish border, cental and Western areas of Syria. And supported by US were not just odd mix if islamic militants, but a string of ISIS captured towns and villages along the border. With Us firmly entranched in Kurdish Kobane region, Turkish Kurds across the border mived the military supplies to all US supported militants, but it was Kurdish Afrin that played the biggest role in smuggling weapons, vehjcles, telecom, etc. to Idlib, and was then moved along Hama-Homs region inland. Turkey shared a large burden in securing this porous border. Instead of fighting a bloody war within Turkey, and occupy border, Turkey first cut a corridor Jarabulus-Al-Bab, to prevent Syrian Kurds taking over Arab towns along Turkish border. Second, by giving employment to militants, mostly the remnants of CIA funded “Free Syrian Army” in destroying ISIS control along this corridor — it has establushed complete control over them. But with the outright defeat of Afrin YPG — the smuggling ti Idlib is over. Militants there fight with each other to raid their stores of supplies. Turkey is a key to getting militants under control in Idlib, now that YPG has been beaten, snd supplies are low. Also, Kurds in Afrin that spurned Samascus iffer earlier will be begging for its support. Damascus administration over. Afrin would free up Turkey from having to occupy it. Turkey must only control the border. Idlib will boil down to some groups resisting to the end — with White Helmets ready to stage another show. But the question is — can they manage to get supplies. And here is where NATO run UN SC comes in — supplies of “humanitarian aid “
will be handed over to militants by UN. As in Ghouta, militants will hold it in warehouses for their use, snd sell some to those that still have something valuable to trade. But now there are Russian and Thrkish checkpoints, and it will no longer be so easy to hand the aid to uncoolerative militants. Syria needs to focus now in the unrest of polulation forcibly kept under the nominal control of Kurds — but in reality, under US occupation. Unrest is spreading in Manbij, Raqqa and all along Eulhrates valley. Many Kurd units have already abandoned the areas and moved further north to defend their stronghold Kobane, Turkey may be on the move again. What will US do? Defend Kurds from Turkey in Kibane region to give them independence there? What for? In other areas now under US control, Kurds are a tiny minority, and cannot be given territory against the will of polulation. Eventually, polulation under US control will demand the right to VOTE. Even if permanently forbiden by US — everybody knows that vast majotity wants to be ruled by Damascus. US options are all weak, and it is only Israel’s insistence that is keeping US in Syria. By ratchettjng up
Iran conflict, Israel is hoping that Syria will be relegated to lower significance, and US can stay put quietly.
But this has been neocon strategy all along — open/reopen another front when stalemated. And after each of those we are weaker and poorer. We are forgetting — to remain great power, a country should never fight great wars.