Hezbollah, Allies Win Majority in Lebanon’s Election

Prime Minister Hariri's party loses a third of its seats

As results begin to come in from Sunday’s Lebanon parliamentary election, a decisive shift has emerged. Though exact seat numbers are not finalized, Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s party has lost decisively, while Hezbollah and its allies are putting together a narrow, but absolute, majority in parliament.

Hezbollah is terming the results a “great victory,” with most estimates having their bloc of allies securing around 67 seats out of 128. Hariri has confirmed that his Future Movement lost at least a third of its seats, down to an estimated 20-21.

This almost certainly means that, once finalized, Hariri’s premiership is over. Hariri has long been a rival to Hezbollah, and one of the Sunni parties within Hezbollah’s March 8 Alliance would have every reason to expect a majority would mean they get the spot.

Lebanon has an informal system of power-sharing among religions, with a Sunni prime minister, a Shi’ite parliament speaker, and a Maronite Christian president. This means all substantial blocs with an ambition to government need to have at least some members of each religion.

It is too soon to speculate who a March 8 prime minister would be. The most recent was Najib Mikati, who most recently served in 2011-2013. There likely won’t be that many choices, as the alliance is predominantly Christian and Shi’ite, with only small Sunni representation.

Author: Jason Ditz

Jason Ditz is Senior Editor for Antiwar.com. He has 20 years of experience in foreign policy research and his work has appeared in The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times, and the Detroit Free Press.