Pentagon officials say they expect a renewed push by US forces and allies against ISIS in Eastern Syria in the coming days. This operation has been effectively on pause since Kurdish forces were redeployed further west to resist the Turkish invasion.
Despite Turkey’s threats, they’ve done little to the Syrian Kurds in recent weeks. This has allowed the YPG to start returning some of the forces they sent to the Euphrates River Valley, where ISIS forces are still operating out of the desert.
The US mostly allows the YPG forces to handle fighting on the ground, providing air support. Finding ISIS forces in the desert may be a difficult matter, as they have gone into hiding since offensives took the last of their towns in the area months ago.
US officials tried to convince Turkey to hold off on the invasion of Kurdish territory specifically because of ongoing fights with ISIS. Given that, it is unsurprising that the Pentagon would want the returning Kurds back to fighting ISIS in short order.
Turkey has promised to eventually take over all of the YPG’s territory, which includes the entire northeast of Syria. The Kurds hold about 25% of Syria, and US forces in the country are all embedded within Kurdish territory.
Aww yes! Those imaginary ISIL forces in eastern Syria! Slay those vicious shadow dragons oh King Arthur of the Pentagon.
Yeah, why bother helping the Kurds seize more of Syria? they’ve already taken all the best agricultural and oil producing areas. Syria’s territorial integrity will be restored.
How? The US, and probably the French, will remain entrenched in Syria and create a “frozen area” of conflict, and use the territory to inject terror groups into lands under Assad’s control. Syria will not be restored to its pre-war borders. Assad knows he can’t win a full scale war with the U.S. and Israel, no matter how strong the support from Iran.
Yes, but Russia is a consistent ally who won’t give up their one base in the region while the US has many. Russia continues to move more advanced air defenses to the area and could declare a no-fly zone. Without air support, western proxy militias and embedded forces will have to either withdraw or be overwhelmed by the huge number of fighters in Shia militias defending Syria. Neither side wants WWIII, but Russia, Syria and Iran have a strong hand to play and seem intent on following through, carefully but with determination.
Even pro-Russian analysts by and large agree that the Russians are a sitting duck in Syria. Maybe in ten-years’ time the advanced Russian rocketry could mount complex ops and defend areas without protected logistical lines, but not today. Tartus and Hmeimim bases would be overrun and taken out within hours and Russia’s would not be able to inflict comparable damage if Damascus falls. The FUKUS air offensive would decimate whatever significant ground forces Assad and Iran can muster. Russia simply does not have enough resources in the region to repel the aggressors, and the only asymmetric compensation it can take is Ukraine, which the U.S. would probably give gladly because it is a money loser and a Russian takeover would guarantee Europe toeing the line for decades to come. Worse still, China – unless it is dead set on taking over Taiwan – would not favour an open Russian invasion.
No, I’m not saying it would be an overt Russia / US war, although certainly the risk of escalation exists. I’m saying Russia may provide Syria with adequate air defenses to deny the airspace over Syria to everyone but Syrian forces and those invited allies. Certainly the US has the power to win a straightforward fight, but with no legal basis for the US occupation I’m skeptical even the US has the arrogance to risk overthrowing Syria’s government through direct attack.
And I am saying that Russia cannot provide Syria adequate cover against a full-blown, sustained air attack, which by all indications is about to happen just now. Netanyahu is addressing Israel on TV tonight with respect to Iran and Syria.
I sure hope you’re wrong about that. Even with much of Syria’s air defenses being behind the times, I don’t think Israel by itself can maintain air superiority over Syria without the US getting vastly more involved. But certainly US-allied regimes may be right that they can trick or corner the US into doing that.