Turkey’s having trouble enough taking a single, not particularly interesting looking hill in Syria’s Afrin District, but officials have broad ambitions for their invasion of Syrian Kurdish territory, with President Erdogan vowing to “clean” the entire border.
That’s an 822 km border, the majority of which is held by Syria’s Kurdish YPG faction, who holds both Afrin District and everything east of the Euphrates River. Turkey controls the area immediately west of the Euphrates up to Afrin, while the Syrian government holds the area in Latakia, and Islamist rebels hold the Idlib Province.
Turkey’s priority is likely to attack the Kurds everywhere along the border, though the Kurdish YPG, and its umbrella group the SDF, is warning they are prepared to take “appropriate measures” to any escalation of Turkey’s invasion.
The SDF had already suggested they were considering sending reinforcements to Afrin District to fight the Turkish invasion there, and Erdogan’s comments are clearly calling their shot on future invasions, which may convince the SDF the reinforcements should be sent sooner, rather than later.
Erdogan’s learned from the U.S. military; fail one war, start another to divert attention.
Scaled down appropriately, of course.
He’s up for re-election in a year so time to divert attention from the unlimited powers he’s given himself, the cleansing of the checks and balances he once had in his former Democratic government and the purge of the thousands of people he had removed from all walks of life media, judiciary, military, all removed for opposing views.His failed attempt to remove Assad from power wasn’t working anymore so time to go with plan B invade Syria and fight the Kurds. This is a distraction from his humiliating experience with Syria and it’s Shiite allies.
If Erdogan’s given himself unlimited powers and removed democratic checks and balances, an upcoming election poses no threat.
A look at any ME ethnic distribution map would reveal that Syrian Kurds are the tip of a Kurdish iceberg in Turkey. Should the became able to rebel and separate, Turkey would lose control of prime geopolitical real estate the U.S./Israel/NATO would love to control themselves via a pliant proxy.
The Kurds may have made a serious geopolitical miscalculation; every country in the Middle East with a significant Kurdish minority is on notice that they are willing to be American Kurdistan if it gets them a Kurdistan.
The Turkish FM today made a good argument that all of these Kurdish groups are really one, playing name games to manipulate. Everyone else does that.
If they really are separate, then more needs to be explained in detail than just denying they are all one.
The funny part is — they are not denying it! All YPG institutions, offices, cars, military vehicles have pictures of Ocalan, jailed PKK leader. US troops working with YPG are aware of that. PKK, that is Turkish fighters, are in YPG. Locals can tell the difference because of their varant of Kurdish language. They have been smuggling accross the border ISIS oil, back in the day, before Russia started to bomb convoys. It was all pinned on Erdogan, as the media here was telentless in demonizing him before elections. In Afrin, small fortunes are made smuggling arms and other supplies from PKK, across YPG territory, to Idlib.
US In Iraq favored PKK, and was trying to undermine Peshmerga. When in first US anti-ISIS operation in Sinjar, Iraq, both PKK and Peshmerga were used — US allowed ONLY Peshmerga to enter Sinjar. And never gave it back to Yazidi, until recently when Iraqi Army kicked out PKK in anti Kurd sweep. Same happened in Kirkuk — and Iraqi Army kicked out PKK from Kirkuk. Peshmerga did not lift a finger to defend them, and alone, without US help — PKK was no match for Iraqi Army.
Here is what happens when we rely on
superficial information. First, Tukey has several objectives in Afrin, and none of them includes conquering the region or taking the town. Afrin is an arms smuggling center, and PKK from Turkey was forever the conduit of arms, money, etc. to Idlib. I can see Turkey focusing on YPG controlled smuggling routes, safe houses, warehouses, telecom centers, etc. The hills by themselves are not important, it is what they represent in the smuggling network. Turkey is combing its border as well. While there was hope that Afrin was going under Syrian government control, Turkey was in the wait and see mode.
Afrin is therefore important only in two ways, cut it off from PKK supplies, stop smuggling and prevent YPG from breaking outside Afrin.
Here is where ignorance starts. Looking at the well known map, it would appear that Kurds are in control of a vast region, starting from the Turkish held territory on Turkish border, extending all the way down Euphrates valley, then all the way up along Turkish border to Iraqi border. Then, the entire Raqqa and Deir Azzor province. So, how will Turkey manage it?
The problem for Kurds is that this whole area was actually US no fly zone, a deal cut with Russia about US fighting ISIS in that area. True, and Kurds were boots on the ground. But NOT across the entire area. Kurds DO NOT HAVE THE MANPOWER, it is an illusion. The only area where they have a sizeable population is in Kobane, some in Hassakah and to Turkish border. Bottom line, in all the places where Kurds are in control — they have a small force, accompanied by some US special operations. The majority of population is ARAB in this entire region collored YELLOW on all maps, making it look like there are Kurdish populated areas — and Kurds are in control. The ONLY reason they can be in charge in all places from which ISIS fled, or was allowed to leave — is because US is defacto controlling it from the sky. Manbij and Raqqa are Arab majority towns, but Kurds are in control, in spite of the tiny number of their forces. This is already an issue — as the inhabitants would like to decide who they would like to live with — and nobody wants to live under Kurds. US essentially cordoned off this large area, with unwilling population, and put small detachments of Kurds in charge.
And with border force, the idea was to keep the unwilling majotiry inside that reservation, not free to vote at the end of hostilities and eventually forced to accept Kurd state, or leave.
The significant issue is — what are Kurds going to defend? US forces arming them have been their protection from attack. But now, they cannot be speead this thin — as Turkey has forces already on Hassakah border — key Kurdish population area. One attack there, one cuttoff from Kobane and Kurds will remain scattered as a tiny minority in Arab population, unable to return home. Or more likely, theywill withdraw from far away places, like guarding Syria’s oil rigs in Deir Azzor or places along Euphrates — and concentrate on repelling Turkey from getting close to Kobane. People who just look at the length of the border forget that Turkey can cut in any place it chooses. And it has hundreds of thousands strong army to run circles around small groups all day long.
One can speculate all one wants — and I am sure US is strategizing how to defend this area — but it cannot be done with the current forces on the ground. Outside their strongholds of Afrin and Kobane, Kurds are 5%. or less of population.
The only issue remains — what will US do to satisfy Turkey. All previous promisses were broken, blatantly. US promissed to pull YPG from Manbij. Promissed to disarm Kurds after ISIS defeat. Promissed to withdraw US forces out of Syria, after ISIS defat. Promised no nation building. Promissed no Kurd independence. Promissed Syrian territorial integrity. One can hardly remember them all.
It will be hard to imagine how can US accommodate Turkey, and still allow Kurds to have a key role in the region — something that was denied Iraqi Kurds. Esecially because of seamless relationship between YPG and PKK.
The unknown is the number of PKK fighters from Turkey that are part of YPG. Reports from Raqqa did mention the presence of Kurds from Turkey, as they had different dialects.
While there are many unknowns — one thing is clear. There are not as many Kurds as we were allowed to believe. So, how is Turkey to take on 800 plus mile border? Easy, there are no Kurds there to speak off. And is it worth to Kurds to make a stand anywhere along the way — when Turkey can just go behind them, and continue to Kobane, leaving them stranded? And will US take the stand for Kurds — when it does not approve , at least theoretically, breakup of Syria.
Something or someone will have to give. Or before that — another short term maneuvering space?