One week into the Turkish invasion of Syria’s Afrin District, the war against the Kurdish YPG looks to be expanding precipitously, with President Erdogan first announcing he’d extend the war to Manbij, and now all the way east to the Iraqi border.
This suggests Turkey’s war against Syria’s Kurds is likely to span the whole of YPG territory, which at present is about 25% of all of Syria. That war will include Turkey’s allies, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which Turkey tends to install as de facto rulers in places they’ve seized.
More importantly, this escalation all but ensures Turkey will be in an military confrontation with the US, as all of America’s troops deployed in Syria are in YPG territory, embedded with the Kurds, who they consider allies.
The US has no presence in Afrin, which has forestalled this confrontation, but efforts to try to prevent direct clashes will have to be massive if Turkey indeed intends to invade all of YPG’s territory, and the Pentagon’s intentions not to withdraw from Syria mean some sort of substantial deal would have to be made on accommodating the permanent US occupation force.
This is, however, in keeping with long-standing Turkish positions on their war in Syria, that they could not allow the YPG to retain territory on their border. Hopes this would be limited to Afrin were never reasonable, and Turkey was virtually certain to be escalating the war, as it now has.
So Turkey intends to conquer 1/4 of Syria and establish an Arab government over a Kurdish region. Sounds like a great plan. Not like creating their own permanent Vietnam at all.
Do not count on it. Kurds have with US support occupied majority Arab territory both slong Turkish border, Euphrates valley, and way inside Arab region of Manbij? Where do you think Turkish Free Syriian Army came from? First, after US declared that “Assad must go”, a free for all was created on Turkish border, creating the danger that Turkey will be, in Erdogan words “isolated in Anatolia”. To insure that carving up Syria does not leave Turkey with hostile population if Kurds and Islamists under US control, Turkey, with Qatar’s help funded their militia from the refugees fleeing both Kurds and Islamists. But then ISIS came, took quickly the border towns as well as the region accross Euphrates. US would not agree to Turkey liberating a safe zone on its border. Then Russia entered, US weaponized Kurds to take iver Arab towns from ISIS, and Kurds were sitting pretty. Until Russia coordinated Euphrates Shield that cut off Afrin from the rest of Kurd held area. Now the goal is to roll Kurds back and out of Arab majority towns and villages, return refugees, and stop ethnic cleansing already under way by Kurds with US watching on. I do not see how will US defend stretched out Kurd gorces in areas where population does not want them. Amother Palestine, this time with Kurds profiting?
Will US defend Kurds outside of their region? I think not.
And will the Kurds occupying the east side of the Euphrates remain there while the Kurdish areas to the north are being invaded by the Turks? Wow, has Uncle Sam really screwed the pooch this time!
More like Uncle Donald and his merry band of purged opportunist!
More like Uncle Donald and his merry band of purged opportunist! Than Uncle Sam.?.
No they probably won’t because it’s not in there long term best interests. Bianca leaves out the point of the Russians wanted the Kurds to fly Syrian flags in Afrin and were willing to stay and keep Turkey from invading if they would cooperate and coordinate with Assad. They declined and Russia pulled it’s observers and the invasion began. So when Bianca spins the facts she purposefully wants to pretend these things never happened because she’s biased. You weren’t saying Russia was creating another Palestine if they gained control of Afrin. Russia and Assad know Erdogan is not trustworthy and he helped finance and arm the same people who tried to remove Assad, now he’s strategically placing them inside Syria as a proxy force. I’m not the smartest man in the world but, I think Assad would much rather have the Kurds as a buffer and deterrent to the Sunni Insurgency that wants desperately for him to be annihilated. People what to believe Bianca’s biased stories that make no sense or what’s really happening. Who’s really the bad guy in Bianca’s eyes it’s the Kurds that helped defeat ISIS that are evil,not the Turks that helped finance and arm and supply ISIS. Sad.
Another very bad decision the Kurds have made… Do their blunders never end…..????? They are running out of luck, if they EVER had any. I sympathize with them to the point when they start making their neighbors refugees to have their own State….. As long as they allow themselves to be tempted into bad alliances with colonial powers and just plain brigands… Not a very closely guarded secret that the Kurds are not very loyal at all, to anyone or anything at all, except their fellow Kurds but seemingly not in every instance…
No. Most of the Euphrates Valley is Sunni Arab; that’s why the capital of the Islamic State was in ar-Raqqa.
The Turks are not attacking the Euphrates Valley. They are attacking all along the northern border of Syria. Where the Kurds live. Are you saying there are no Kurds in Syria?
You say 1/4 of Syria. The north is Kurdish in part certainly but most of that 1/4 is either desert or Sunni Arab.
His Sultanship talks big but the reality of Turkey in Afrin is around 4-5 little border towns and maybe their surrounding hilltops. It looks like, rather than zero in on Afrin city, they are trying to hug the border towards Turkic DAESH Al Bab and link up in Syria.
The Wiki Syrian Civil War map seems to indicate an early stalemate, with the Turks unable to link Olive Branch with Euphrates Shield.
Taking on Israeli (Iraqi) Kurdistan – that’s a bit more realistic if they have support from the Shia government in Baghdad. Open ground is far less troop-intensive than mountain fighting. But there are no reports of a large troop buildup.
Manbij… just don’t see it. Bombing doesn’t signal an offensive if again there are no concurrent reports of a troop buildup to do the offensing.
This is not a standard operation. I do not think that Turkey intends to take city, fight in streets. What for? The objective is still simple. One, prevent Afrin YPG ftom having access to Turkish PKK, to get arms and PKK fighters. Two, Keep Turkish forces on Afrin’s west border, to prevent Western funded HTA (Al-Nusra) helping YPG break south towards Mediterranean, as at that moment Syria would have to fight that incursion, while Idlib can cause havoc on various supply routes. Third. Afrin YPG cannot be allowed to break through Jarabulus/Al-Bab corridor. I do not get the reference to ISIS in relation to Al -Bab? Al-Bab was taken by Turkey with Russian support in Euphrates Shield. ISIS moved to Raqqa after the defeat. Just like after Manbij defeat by Kurds, in BOTH instances US allowed ISIS to freely move across territory it controlled. After that, Syrian Army took positions in Sl-Bab countryside, litterally next to Free Syrian Army in Al-Bab. After Turkey threatened to continue to Manbij, Kurds thst took the city, held some countryside. Kurds then turned over the area to Syrian Army, to be a buffer between them and Turkish Army. Turkey then declared that it apprived if any return of territory.
Sorry for a bit rushed tekst above, I just wanted to crrect misinformation routinelly found in media, even the more carefull alternative media. It us very common to find in oress how with the demise of ISIS, a vacuum will be created. How so? Since US is not allowing Syrian Government to take over thise regions, it embarked on a ambitious mission to let Kurds come in, and manage thise towns and villages. In reality, Kurds outside of Afrin and Kobani, are a rather small force, and stretched over dozens of towns — the only reason population is not rebelling is the fesr if US. Any act of rebellion of locals against Kurdish rule is immediatelly defined as “ISIS” attack. People in Raqqa already paid for it, US tried to get local tribes and city population recruited for SDF, but it did not work — Arabs do not want to be serving under Kurdish commanders, or even less, live in Kurdish state. Many Arabs, even whole units defected to Syrian Army. Population is asking fir permission to move to Government controlled part of Deir Azzor, but are not allowed. There are two refugee camps, but people were not sllowed by Kurds to go home, and are escaping. Many reports on that in foreign media.
One day recently Raqqa woke up plastered with Assad pictures. Arab town does not want to be under Kurdish military AND civilian control. US promised that Arab towns will nit be mansged by Kurds — another broken promise. Just the one Biden made publicly – that Kurds will leave Manbij.
The bottom line, Turkey will have a large reservioir of population to rectuit from along the entire Turkish border, and entire Euphrates valley. Euphrates Shield has just begun. Kurds will be kept busy in Afrin, unable to go east, while Turkey can start from the east, as it is placing forces outside Hassakah area, from where it can move westward along the border and take all towns with small Kurdish population. And from Al-Bab, it can move on Raqqa region of Euphrates.
Reference the Wiki Syrian Civil War map; Turkey has little support along its Syrian border relative to the Kurdish presence; that’s why they are invading Syria in the first place.
Kurdish territory (yellow); Afrin connects to Manbij via Syrian government-held territory (red). Most strategic commentators agree the opening of this tacit corridor prompted Operation Olive Branch. The Syrian government can hardly prevent the passage of its own more or less friendly citizens through its territory.
Euphrates Shield ended in March 29 2017. (Wiki, Operation Euphrates Shield).
There were posters of Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan Posters put up by the Kurds when they took the city; it was not appreciated by the locals. No-one put up posters of Erdogan.
I do not put much faith in maps. They tend to show Kurdish area yellow, but include villages and towns that are not Kurdish. I wish they would create a population map. It took me a long time to find older records, as Wiki became a fierce battling ground for Kurdish propaganda of “their” state. The yellow along Turkish border is a fantasy. When Turkey took Jarabulus and adjacent villages from ISIS — they did not take over or occupy ANY majority Kurd-populated place. None. Manbij was ethnically cleansed, it was reported at the time, even by our media. Otherwise, before ISIS, a majority Arab town.
As for Afrin-Manbij link up. I think analysts here are defiinitely wrong. Turkey rushed to Al -Bab, as Kurds were getting ready to take it from ISIS. This was the last straw for Turkey — as Kurds did not withdraw from Manbij —as promised, and were about to take a key crossroads. Taking Al-Bab would have given Kurds freedom to connect to Raqqa and Kurd areas beyond. Again, we are talking of a town with about 5% Kurds. If you remember, there was a great deal of cheerful speculation that Turkey’s FSA was going to clash with Syrian Army that closed in from the south. I was sure that was not going to happen, because of Russian-Turkish collaboration in the operation. Turkey accused US of providing aerial reconnaissance to ISIS, resulting in damages to Turkish forces. Russia actually joined Turkish airforce in liberating the town. At that point Kurds were afraid of Turkey moving on Manbij. To prevent that, Kurds ceded a large area outside Manbij to Syrian Army, to create a buffer. Turkey approved of the move, as any area returned to Syrian control was accptable to Turkey. No further action followed. Turkey offered to US to provide forces to take Raqqa. US refused.
As for not having reason for not letting Afrin Kurds to Manbij — reasons are plenty! The negotiations between Syria, Russia and Afrin broke down over several issues. One, YPG refused to accept Syrian Army inside Afrin. They refused to accept Damascus control over public finances, as YPG controls them. Apparently YPG is awash with billions in cash — and they are on a buying spree of Arab properties. Also, YPG controls border to Syria, and no Syrian citizen can travel to Afrin withiut YPG permission. And permissions were rarely given, except for property sellers or their agents. I cannot see Syria opening their checkpoints for Afrin residents under such circumstances. Also, with Turkish military operations in area, less movement is expected. Any refugees will nit be sent to Manbij. Analysts are often wrong as looking at maps alone can be misleading.
Kurds putting up posters of Ocalan to anger local population — not bright. But putting posters of PKK leader — extremely dumb. As US, their lord and master, officially treats PKK as terrorist organization — why do it? It will be hard for US to claim to Turkey with straight face that it is not using terrorists for its purposes.
When Assad said that Kurds should leave Raqqa city, or otherwise, it will be treated as city under occupation. The next day, Raqa was plastered by Assad posters. I am sure the gesture not appreciated by US! Let us see what happens if Erdogan sets its sights on Raqqa.
Raqqa and Euphrates valley cties fate is going to be challenged — keeping the occupation against population wlll be hard. Let’s see who the liberator will be in the end.
I feel bad about the fate of Syrian Kurds. They were rather prosperous community before the war. The tragedy of ISIS attack on Kobane ended period of cooperation with Damascus, caused a huge political split, dissapearances and exile for many — and PKK/YPG variant prevailed. US — in spite of denials, favored PKK, as experienced fighters. They were favored in Iraq as well — causing the tensions with Peshmerga.
But the Kurdish population will pay the price for getting in the middle of the intractable problem. Having themselves alligned with Turkey’s nemesis — PKK — and refusing Olive Branch by Syrian Government, they are now facing uncertainty.
Look Bianca people on this forum are tired of you’re spin and alternate facts that don’t add up. We know the Kurds helped defeat ISIS. We know Erdogan helped support ISIS. We know Turkey is invading Syria to fill it’s borders full of Sunni Muslims loyal to Turkey that are probably full of former ISIS fighters. Keep your long rants and desperate attempts to push your fantasy narratives full of inconsistencies to yourself. Get a blog account or write a book. I’ll give it to you, one of the best spin masters but, it’s not working anymore, the allure is gone.
No, people on this forum are not tired of Bianca’s posts. Your’s on the other hand…..
Toys r us you offer nothing of value to the conversation at least Bianca has her own perspective flawed as it may be. I understand you have a serious disorder that doesn’t allow you to accept reality I encourage you to seek professional help, in the meantime go chug a giant glass of Putin juice!!!
What conversation? I just pointed out that the people on this forum aren’t tired of Bianca’s posts. I also implied that people on this forum are indeed tired of your contributions. And you proved my point with you sophomoric “Putin juice” comment. You look foolish.
Awww the guy who thinks America is responsible for everything that goes wrong on the planet named wars r u.s is tired of my Pro-American perspective and posts on this forum. How will I ever sleep? Look everyone else on this site almost agrees with your foolish perspective so why waste time commenting on my posts? In the meantime have fun trolling my comments.
I only comment when you make yourself look foolish. This site is called Anti-war.com and I’m anti-war. Since my country is involved in every war on the planet it’s hard not to place the majority of the blame on them. If you want to ignore that and continue to be a cheerleader for anything and everything we do then so be it.
People who are tired of Bianca’s spin — or yours — have a “block user” option at their disposal to not have to read it.
You know nothing. We are learning as we go. You hiwever are stuck in time warp.
The Wiki Syrian Civil War map is not a fantasy; its an excellent starter map that reflects the influence of armed groups not population distribution. The Wiki may be compromised in the underdiversity of colour schemes and odd spelling, but reflects who holds what by armed force.
Without good map references, text news reports cannot be evaluated with any sense of context. Its easy enough to google population distribution maps as well as elevation and waterway maps and compare them to the Wiki interpretation.
I haven’t seen any sources confirming your allegation of poster wars in Raqqa. One advantage of the Wiki SCW map, is its that it tends to be based on widely corroborated confirmed news. The long painful Syrian Army reconquest cannot be appreciated from the often biased news reports alone.
I understand what you are saying —I
have relied on the map myself. For many purposes it is sufficient. But we are moving into another phase. What we have here is US attemp to create a maximum space for some form of Kurdish autonomy/state. These maps somewhat facilitate that task — as areas that are not controlled by Syrian Government, Afrin Kurds, Turkish controlled FSA, or are part of Idlib mix of groups, are automatically shown in yellow color.
Believe me, population data is hard to find — especially Kurds outside Afrin. The color mistakenly indicates that Kurds and/or US is in control of the entire territory. This is the case with areas shown under control of Damascus. Any spot where Damascus is not fully in charge or there are ceasefire agreements in place, is shown in different color, from red to shades of pink. With Kurds, only few towns and villages are under Kurds — both military and civilian administration. Other areas are self-administered, once ISIS left. For example, once ISIS lost Jarabulus, ISIS groups abandoned surrounding villages, and Turkey with FSA took some of them, others are on their own. This is now true of the entire Euphrates valley, where tribes are in charge, except few key townships and surrounding areas. Let us move to Deir Azzor province, where Kurds are controling oil/gas fields. They have zero population there to support them, and the only reason Syrian Army as not taken them out — is American protection. The entire region should be shown some other color, not Kurd-controlled. It would be more accurate to collor it — American controled. Let us move then to the only area in the northeast where a large population of Kurds is present — Kobane. But, with the exception of the Kobane core, where they are majority, take the slighly expanded area from Hassakah to Qureimsili on the Turkish border, and already they are under 50%. Outside this core, Kurds quickly drop to 5% and less.
This to me means the following — they have no numbers to effectively control the population of the region colored yellow. And while the region consists of Arabs, Syrian and Iraqi, Turkmen, Christians, and others — all of them are united in one thing — they do not wish to be ruled by Kurds, or live under American occupation that will force Kurd dominance. Is it making sense to so blythely assume that “yellow” means Kurds?
If we do that, we will make mistakes in predicting the outcome of this attempt to surround majority Arab population by border guards — mainly to keep population under control, rather then letting them have a say in who will rule them.
Look at the top analysts — and Moonofalabama tracks them all — all made mistakes declaring Turkish action a bluff. Then most continued to guess how will Turkish action stall in mountains of Afrin, not considering at all that Turkey may have some specific goals there. Most analysts — just like US administration — were scratching their heads when Turkey revealed its broader intentions. Why surprise?
Did they also believed that along the border there is this thick yellow area of Kurdish population, defending their homes? Unless US brings some serious reinforcements, Kurds are at the mercy of Turkish forces, up the border, past Manbij, Raqqa, Euphrates valley and Deir Azzor. It may not come to that — but Turkey is not having Kurdish state, and no other population will come to assist Kurds.
Besides Raqqa, there were already several other rebellions of Arabs, including Hassakah, and tribes in the valley. A number of Arab units under SDF unbrella defected to Syrian Army (documented). Others in Manbij area, are defecting to Turkish FSA.
As for Raqqa passive/agressive rebelion —with pictures and all, it was in Al-Masdar.
You see my concern with superficial understanding of what constitutes Kurd region? And how it can be used to deceive American public that we are actually wanted there, with vibrant, large popuation and fighters eager to receive us? This is an illusion, but once US sets “boundaries”, we will just “have to” increase our forces, to pacify those Arab “dead enders”. Familiar story? More nation building? Kind of a rock soup…
Yes, it does make sense to assume yellow on the Wiki Syrian Civil War map indicates Kurdish control because they are the dominant armed force in that area (backed by U.S. shadow and overt forces) and a war map is supposed to tell us that reasonably accurately.
Any other minorities don’t count if they are not armed sufficiently to warrant flagging as a force capable of opposing the Kurds and asserting their own will. You are conflating ethnic distribution with armed political control.
While you are correct in asserting any one map can be superficial, you have to be able to explain why an apparent superficial appearance is or is not material.
Any number of publicly available maps will give you ethnic distributions and population densities.
Check out #28, Middle East, Ethnic Groups. (close the spaces)
http: //gulf2000.columbia. edu/maps.shtml#ethno
It clearly shows why Turkey has concerns about Kurdish state independence; they lose 1/3 to half their country. This is corroborated in map after map by other legit researchers.
Nor are MoonOverAlabama or other commentators wrong in thinking Erdogan was bluffing; Olive Branch this is an extremely high-risk and difficult operation, not just militarily but geopolitically. Had the U.S. not declared it was building a border force and staying and F.U. all, Russia would have continued to oppose further Turkish incursion and it would have been a bluff.
Without at least Russia behind him, Turkey stood no chance, fighting in mountainous terrain aganst a U.S. proxy force.
Risking golanization of Syria’s north border is a concession that pales in comparison to letting the U.S.D.S. light up the ME with U.S.-fueled Kurdish nationalism and separatism, as they are far easier to back openly than the Islamic State.
Baiting the Turkey is still just a diversion; consolation prize is Golanization of North Syria, grand prize, another round of geopolitical hybrid war. If the Kurds can win global sympathy, Kurds will replace the IS as Middle Eastern map-remakers.
All maps can be accurate, depending on the definition and purpose. And a point in time.
So, why apparent supperficial appearance is — or is not material? Because — to quote the one who should remain nameless — it all depends on what is, is.
Therefore, the map that was relevant for the ISIS phase, is no longer relevant. Far from conflating the military control with ethnic distribution — I am DIFFERANTIATING the reality that is about to become relevant. Kurds, sparse on the ground both as population and military force, will have to face the outcome of US-Turkey/Russia/Iran/Iraq/China conflicts of interests. US interests are transparent. Creating a core territory in Syria to establish a cause, Kurdish freedom, empacipation, self-determination. In short — weaponization of Kurds. But Kurds are just the instrument, what is the goal? It is the same goal that is being already being pursued, be that in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan Pakistan, Iran, Africa, Georgia, Ukraine, Balkans. All these neualgic poins have one common denominator. They are in the process of or planning stages of BRI projects and Eurasian Economic Union.
While most reputable analysts are so dreadfully behind the implications of integrations in area of energy, transportation, and trade — this is central to neocon strategy. As unintelligent and short sighted the policy is, it is still the only game in town. To quote the much demonized Erdogan, US is attemting to isolate Turkey in Anatolia. And isolate Russia. And Isolate Iran. And put pressure on Balkans. Not too mention N. Korea, various rocks in the Pacific.
Every country in the region knows what this is all about. While many people point to the centrality of Israel to US foreign policy — the stakes are more complex. Current US foreign policy track is on a collission course with the combined interests of the entire region. In short, US has no friends left in the Middle East region. And hopefully nobody points out to Saudi Arabia. Please.
The reason most analysts fail to predict is simple. They still assume that coordination among countries in the region is transactional, not strategic. And data points that do not fit, are not considered. One example is the joint Turkish Russian air operation over Al-Bab, The idea that Turkey and Russia have a short-term, case by case relationship, is wrong. Going back to 2013 partner level membership in SCO, the interdependency increased. But going back to 2008 Georgian war when Turkey was not helping US as expected, and worse yet, not helpfull at all in Crimea crisis.
Coming back to the issue of YELLOW map. With the stakes being no less then US attempt to create toll booths all over the region, I cannot imagine that Turkey and others failed to notice that Kurds are sparse on the ground, and that even without touching US special forces, Turkey can slice pieces of presumably Kurdish controlled area without much effort. But this will have to wait US reaction. As for Afrin and Iraq, Turkey is tackling smuggling routes. Afrin is making money smuggling to Idlib, and currently are too busy to attend their clients needs. Syria’s army is gratefull.
A footnote, Moonofalabama is by far the best source of information on Syria and other conlict zones. My only point is that mistaken projection was made. Why? Because there is still a weak understanding of the stake involved for the partipants. And weak understanding of the degree of regional cooperation, as well as strategic Eurasian reallignment through massive infrastructure connectivity. There is a great deal of purposefull strategic ambiguity, contributing to uncertain predictions. Where is a potential for compromise? It is hard to say, especially since the rethoric coming out of neocon sources is getting fierce, demanding action on Syria. The question is, are there any adults left in US politics to recognize oportunities — instead of getting stuck in 19th century geopolitics. So, unless US is prepared to fill up the YELLOW with a lots of US soldiers, given stakes that go beyond endangering Turkey — it may be not be that simple to solve Syria’s yellow region.
MoonofAlabama… weak Understanding? WTF. Going by known facts that are prone to abrupt change determined by shifting and often hidden agendas means no-one is going to be 100% all the time. Amateur observers can get lucky; you’re smart and I’m opinionated and all that but lets not get carried away with the height of our armchairs.
You seem to have stuff in neat little mind-boxes but the.. holistic organization of those boxes seems a little dodgy and lids a little to tight.
Tested geopolitical observers not thinking strategically? Where did that come from? Everyone knows observable diplomatic transactions are strategically thought out; its the whole point of the game. Not everyone is a neocon, and they are far from 2D operators.
The Middle Easterners are not awaiting the outcome of U.S.-Eurasian sorting out; they are smack dab in the middle of it and will determine the sorting; that’s the whole point of using proxies.
The fact that yellow-shaded American Kurdistan sits on a lot of empty desert is immaterial. Any different color crossing that desert in anger to get at any hardpoint therein had better be prepared to deal with well-armed people shooting back. The whole point of Turkey in Afrin is to change the area of control.
Turkey shouldn’t dare risk shooting at a NATO member especially the U.S. because that breaks the already strained and stained code of non-aggression between NATO members. Erdogan is not in a position to operate outside that polite umbrella of indulgence and protection. This is a very common sense observation.
You win. I am the last person to
throw any shaddow on the light that MoA represents. My lids are not as tight as you think, and my boxes are merely filing systems — but they do talk to each other.
But your assessment is right, and I accept criticism — there is little value in getting anything right, when the struggle for the Middle East is still at its earliest stages. Every fact though, has a different weight, and I may assign some weights based on the some futures baked into the weight. This as it happens, is the case of Turkey.
Turkey’s interests and the interests of the region coincide. Turkey’s concerns are vital, and combined with internal political consensus, it has more maneuvering space. As for NATO obligations, US and Europe for decades support arming and financing PKK in Turkey, and US has over years built up PKK in Iraq and now in Syria. The entire background of Iraqi Kurd referendum was US blatant favoring PKK over Peshmerga. Thus is where Barzani and Erdogan saw eye to eye. And this is why Peshmerga did not lift a finger when Iraqi army pushed PKK out of Kirkuk and Sinjar. NATO, without a shadow of a doubt in my judgement, has been attacking Turkey by its proxies, for a long, long time, and there was nothing Turkey could do. It was done to keep it in line. With political turmoil at home, and Western supported opposition to the rulling party — Turkey could only react to Kurd attacks and provocatios. Nothing more.
Now it has internal consensus, and the opposition pro-NATO Republican party without support — it made sense to challenge US Syrian Kurd project. And as negotiations failed, action was needed. There will be more conflict and compromise along the way. Way to early for solid conclusions, so my dwelling on it, is meaningless.
So, I am unscrewing my lids. My other boxes are filling up, new boxes are reorganizing contents of old ones. I had no intention of making you angry. I am an intuitive, but unlike most intuitives, I come with tons of data. The most annoying combination, and annoying personality. I can go too far in trying to make others see what I see. Even if it is just one single event, as in this case.
For that, I appologize.
Apologize for what? You present your positions honestly, they are are politely written, you won’t back down where you feel you’re right, yet are mindful of the facts when brought up.
That’s not offensive and no-one including me would have any right to be offended. Being determined to think for yourself in your own way is generally a good thing.
Ignoring you rather than engage in an interesting debate would leave my position untested and so uninformed. The gist of your argument, that qualitative insight is important, has merit.
Concede points of fact but apologize for nothing.
“Iranian commander issued stark warning to Iraqi Kurds over Kirkuk” – Michael Georgy, Ahmed Rasheed, Oct. 20, 2017, Reuters. com
“Why is Turkey so disjointed over the Iraqi Kurds?” – Merve Tahiroglu and Aykan Erdemir, Sep. 21, 2017, Washingtonpost. com
1. Turkey SOP took Al Bab, the putative captital of prospective Kurdish Shaba canton; taking cities is not ruled out if it can be done. 2. Kurdish YPG and PKK have avenues other than Afrin for contact and clandestine trade; Afrin has been out of the war more or less but that made it an ideal planning centre. 3. Lebanon, Turkey and Syria retain control of access to the Med. 4. No reference was made to IS in my post, only the Turkic DAESH.
The Turks didn’t go for Manbij the first time because of united American and Russian opposition. With the U.S. deciding to stay, Russian opposition to such Turkish action has more or less evaporated.
Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi next week: https://sana.sy/en/?p=125530