Following up on a flurry of Friday artillery strikes against Kurdish forces in the Afrin District on northern Syria, Turkish warplanes carried out a large number of airstrikes against the small district, with at least 108 strikes reported, leaving the towns’ streets empty, and locals panicking.
Syria’s government complained Turkey hadn’t informed them of the attacks, adding that they “strongly condemn” Turkish aggression. Syria had threatened to target Turkish warplanes raiding their airspace, however, and there’s so far no sign of this happening.
Instead the US-backed Kurds are getting hammered from the air, and Turkey is now not only massing their own troops at the Afrin border, but has bused in thousands of Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels to attack the Kurds as well.
Afrin District is relatively low-value, except that Turkey has long maintained Syrian Kurds aren’t allowed west of the Euphrates, and this is the westernmost district under Kurdish control. Turkish officials have said after Afrin, the city of Manbij will be attacks, then Kurdish border territories east of the Euphrates.
At this point Syria is simply covering legal niceties by protesting, ensuring Syrian territorial sovereignty is not seen to be relinquished.
Erdogan went over Assad’s head and got permission from Russia, Syria’s security guarantor, to attack. Syria no longer has the help it needs to shoot down warplanes that far from Damascus, where most Syrian air defense units would be stationed. Syrian air defenses also rely on Russian advisors.
An interesting tidbit from Zero Hedge indicates that Syria was in negotiations with Afrin right till the last moment. Afrin Kurds rather cynically asked for the restoration of Syrian government services so that Syrian flags would fly from government buildings. But they wouldn’t let Syrian security forces return.
The Syrian government declined, and the Kurds effectively refused themselves the protection of the Syrian military.
“Russian Military Pulls Out Of Syrian Kurdish Town As Turkey Initiates “Massive Cross-Border Attack””, Tyler Durden, Ja. 19, 2018, ZeroHedge. com
Sounds like the Russians have had enough of clumsy Kurdish gamesmanship. If Ergodan can take ’em, he can have ’em.
Yeah, OK.Brockland, what YOU say sounds reasonable… The part I don’t get is how the “new” ( 30,000) strong corps of “mostly Kurds, with some Arab fighters” that Washington announced it is forming, a week or less ago…. Is this invasion/attack Russia’s way of saying no way…????? The Idea was absolutely berserk at the outset, now this….???? Who is steering this voyage between two enemies where there is NO shelter from the inevitably storm that the Turks are doing from their side, and no doubt will be initiated by Assad soon from his side.. WHAT am I missing????? Clever of Russia have Turkey ruin Yankee 30,000 troop force almost immediately as after it’ announced.. Erdogan not very happy about Gulan impunity Trump seems to provide.. What a mess…..
The possibilities. Assad is unlikely to be shooting at the Turks without Russian support. He can’t reach that far north without their help; Syrian forces are mired by the Idlib DAESH and there is still an IS pocket northwest of Hama.
This new Kurdish force isn’t all that new; its the SDF. What changed was the U.S. decision to remain and continue building American Kurdistan out of Rojava.
The U.S. still isn’t entering a new war; its an occupation that sort of might be welcome by statist Kurds, Rojava being divided between Kurds who believe in Ocalan’s vision of autonomy within Syria and those who want a real state. Having fought and bled for their land, the elite leadership Kurds cultivated and promoted by the U.S./Israel/NATO are probably leaning towards separation and independence.
American Kurdistan needs to be stopped dead as far as Turkey and Russia are concerned. Turkey has apparently satisfied Russia that they won’t turn on Syria. Not really reassuring but only Turkey has the remote chance of snuffing American Kurdistan, and, Russia can’t really stop Turkey; if they’re going in, they’re going in.
It appears Turkey is being baited in to war, and, it has no choice but to bite at some point. Recall Colonel Ralph Peters ‘Blood Borders’ map which envisions half of Turkey becoming part of Kurdistan; the Project is still on.
About one-third to maybe half of Turkish geography is indigenously Kurdish. Maps of Greater Kurdistan indicate the sliver of Kurdish northern Syria is but the tip of an iceberg residing in Turkey. There’s a bit of Kurdistan in Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Iran. Formal borders aren’t required by the IS precedent; a region of chaos fought for by a group of dedicated Kurdish nationalists with earned world sympathy are far more effective proxies than the IS could ever be.
Once the Rojava Kurds become American Kurdistan and strong enough to support Kurds in Turkey, Turkey has a too-real civil war on it hands and its their turn to get the Syria partition games treatment.
The Wiki Syrian Civil War Map makes it look simple for Turkey; from Al Bab (Kurdish Shabha, green) seize Afrin and Manbij (yellow) on either side and balance off American Kurdistan/Jezira canton (yellow), east of the Euphrates but now expanded down the Kahbir river to the Euphrates.
Yet once Turkey mobilizes beyond Al Bab, they’re in indigenous Kurd territory. They may be getting into their own Afghanistan, without the opium trade benefits. If they can’t win against U.S. supported Kurds, and the Turkish Army worn down and weakened, the balance of power shifts and Kurds in Turkey as well as Sunni militants can’t be kept down.
If Erdogan fails in North Syria, domestic unrest may remove him from power or weaken his security apparatus enough for him to be more overtly disposed of by NATO. NATO inherits Turkey and its Syrian possessions by default, if Erdogan doesn’t fork them over to save himself.
And it will be Turkey and the Kurds doing all the fighting, not the Americans; just add weapons and ethnic hate and the killbox shakes and bakes itself.
Its looks like kind of a Hail Mary (or Ishtar) pass by the U.S.D.S. who want to win in Syria and Turkey looks like its going to catch the long bomb. Russia and Assad can only just watch for now and see how far Erdogan is able and willing to go with Olive Branch.
I agree that Erdogan is clever, ruthless and lucky. Lucky, because he is two of the above.
My impression is that Al-Bab will play a critical role eventually. Manbij us just an outpost for Kurdish/US plan, but it is not a Kurdish town. Neither is Al-Bab. Neither is Raqqa, or the entire string of towns along Turkish border, presumably Kurdish native. I checked population counts, and could not find any majority native Kurd towns in the neighborhood of Al-Bab, in fact nowhere outside the Kobane/Hassakah region.
Turkey is the hammer here, but make no mistake — Russia is behind them, so us China. Both are investing in Turkey’s economy and infrastructure. Russia now contributing defense systems. Why is Turkey so bold as to have a base jn Qataq, as well as in Iraq. Iraq “protested” just as much — but when oush cane to shove, Kurdish PKK in Kirkuk and PKK in Sinjar — both oresumably liberated from ISIS folded. Not supported by Oeshmerga, with Turkish forces nearby, and Iraq army attacking — end game. Turkey has a role to play now, to let Al-Qaeda know that no White Helmets will help them to sneakily work with YPG to expand Afrin. I would appreciate information on any Kurdish dominated town, township or village OUTSIDE Kobane/Hassakah. I cannot be sure that any Kurd dominated tiwnship exists anywhere in the Euphrates valley.
As for Erdogan’s support, after the failed coup — he is politically not vulnerable by any political group. Soros/Gulen no linger own media bullhorns, snd that helps.
Clever ruthlessness is usually accompanied by a kind of short-term thinking that usually is not survivable in the long term. Erdogan’s career has been marked by grandly ambitions plans and correspondingly grand reversals; that he’s still around means he’s lucky.
Manbij democratically declared itself a Kurdish canton; Rojava Kurds made a good impression on their local Arab neighbors. American Kurdistan Kurds would have far less support.
“Is Manbij the latest Kurdish poke in Erdogan’s eye?” – Berzan Iso, Mar. 28, 2017, Al-Moniter. com
Erdogan already warned he would not acceopt Kurds West of the Euphrates and American Kurdistan blithely ignored him. prompting the original Operation Euphrates to prevent an Afrin-Manbij Kurdistan linkage.
“Syrian Democratic Forces Cross Over The Euphrates And Turkey’s ‘Red Line'” – ANF-Kobane, Dec. 26, 2015, KurdishQuestion. com.
After Syria retook Aleppo, the linkage could be informally made through Syrian government territory; Assad couldn’t very well deny his own citizens’ travel, prompting operation Olive Branch.
What became Olive Branch has been under negotiation with Russia since before Euprhates Dawn and may be more well-thought out than it appears. When it became obvious Afrin was sitting on the fence and still open to American Kurdistan, Russia appears to have lost patience even if Assad was willing to trust them.
“Turkey waiting … and waiting … to intervene in Afrin” – Fehim Tastekin, July 14, 2017, Al-Moniter. com.
The Wiki “Regions of Rojava” and “Syrian Civil War Template Map” entries clearly shows the area of Al Bab to be non-Kurdish; Turkmen DAESH based themselves there after crossing from Jarabulus. So, it already is important.
Regardless of Russian support everything rides on how well the Turkish Army can fight in mountainous Afrin. We won’t know for a little while longer; luring Turkey into a quaqmiere means not scaring him off too early with tough slogging. At some point the SDF’s U.S.-supplied MANPADS and TOWs should kick in.
“Kurdish forces in Syria receive surface-to-air missiles from US as part of secret deal: Reports” – Andrew Illingworth, Jan 15 2018, Almasdarnews. com.
U.S.-supplied MANPADs were what broke the Soviets/Russians in Afghanistan, removing their airpower advantage. The U.S. is following a textbook solution, based on the old ‘fighting the last war’ trick (which the textbooks also discourage).
Spot on. Everyone had enough of Kurdish games — but lets be clear, YPG and US games. They pushed the envelope in letting the civilian leadership negotiate, and ghen YPG would have none if it. I am convinced that the endgame in Idlib was to have Al-Qaeda join YPG in taking the coastal stretch — having US controlled YPG in charge, and US navy docking in Afrin. I not not think that Damascus is really against the operation — the YPG intentions were clarified once US created “birders” and border force.
The reason I am sure Damascus is ptotesting only formally, as it happened with Euphrates shield — kicking ISIS out of Al-Bab. Turkish forces, Turkish backed Arab militias, and Syrian Army have been there now for a yeat, jointly guarding the corridor that prevented Kurds to join aling Turkish border. There was so much excitement in our scripted media — about presumed fighting between the “rebels” and Syrian Army — but not only that it did not happen, but all the forces are adjacent to each other, coordinating the defence of corridor.
Assad’s opposition is real enough. At least he figured he could connect with Syrian Kurds (wrongly or rightly); replacing them with Turkmen DAESH, well, that’s going to be tough for him to accept.
Turkey’s latest incursion is smack between the Kara Su and Afrin river tributaries to the Orontes river, and these waterways critical to both Syrian and Turkish water security.
Of course, this also makes Afrin valuable to the U.S./Israel plans for the region. So, the Kurds really screwed up thinking they could game autonomy and neutrality; by this point the geopolitical game board is too polarized.
“The Orontes, a complex river” – Mohamed Al Dbiyat, Bernard Geyer, Water-Security. org.
Busing? Please heed the Calvin&Hobbes warning that verbing weirds language.
True, and the US way of avoiding doubling letters makes it worse. The word is “bussing” if you must use it.
Hello Rosemerry.
427 square kilometers of Syrian border land is not “low value” when land theft is your goal.
Land theft or installing puppets like in Ukraine – no difference.
The REAL value of the district is:
a/ it is close to Mediterranean
b/ it abutts Idlib “rebels” now under attack by Syrian Army, and US-backed YPG in Afrin forever supplied them with weapons
c/ Kurd — population, wanted to be part of Syria, negotiated with Damascus, flew Syrian flags on courthouses, but US-backed YPG refused to back down, as they wanted to be part of Kurdish entity/state, Rojava, under US control
d/ with negotiations ending, US announcing border force to cut off a chunk of Syria from Government control, the threat of Afrin YPG — helped by Idlib Hayat Tahrir Al-Hayat (HTS), or Al-Qaeda — declaring themselves part of US backed SDF, would push to the coast
e/ no matter how much Syrian government complains, it is obvious that without Turkey’s intervention, it will have another US backed Kurdish enclave, on the coast, with US navy immediately stepping in;
f/ Syria must protest, as it does not want to be against Kurdish population, and does not want Kurds to think that Turkey has any permission to take territory; Turkey is not interested in territory, but YPG propaganda is trying to scare population that they will be part of Turkey, if they do not fight
g/ today, largest Arab group that is part of US backed SDF defected to Turkish backed Euphrates Shield groups.
h/ YPG is well armed from US, and has Turkish PKK leadership. But I am not sure if Turkey intends to defeat or just degrade, moving quickly on to Manbij — another Kurd occupied and ethnically cleansed Arab town. It is not heavily defended, as Kurds do not live there, hence no large population would back them. And US promised that Kurds would withdraw. .
g/ Manbij is important not in itself, but if it ceases to be Kurdish outpost, road from Al-Bab to Raqqa is wide open. Raqqa is an Arab town now occupied by Kurds, and population is in rebellion — last week had posters of Assad all over town. From there on — Kurd occupation of the whole string of towns and villages in both directions — up along Turkish border, and along Euphrates becomes UNTENNABLE. US would then have to battle on the side of Kurd secession, and against MAJORITY Arab population of the area.
Like having to kill off a few Arabs is going to upset the U.S.D.S….
However, the real threat in that context is moreso to the Rojavan Kurds and the most subtle; getting so many of their best blood killed off is going to have long term effects on them.
There are still pictures of Afghanistan from the 1960s on ‘net, when it was a promising developing country on the threshold of second world status. How things change.
The Kurds place women on the front line; in the short term this doubles their fighting power… in the long term, each one that dies or is crippled beyond being able to start a family, won’t be raising one with her values. Not that losses of men don’t have a similar effect, but only women can bear the next generation and they are the new generations’ earliest teachers.
Kurdish forces are experiencing unusually heavy casualties against the last IS holdouts on their side of the Euphrates. Why now are battles planned so poorly?
“Bloody stalemate assumes between Kurdish forces and ISIS in east Syria with many hundreds of dead on both sides” – Andrew Illingworth, Jan. 22, 2018 , Almasdarnews. com
What a crock that all this is called “Operation Olive Branch.” Another big war in the name of a permanent peace that will never quite happen.
Assad knows what Russia knows by Turkey invading Syria, ethnically cleansing it’s borders,keeping it’s borders full of Sunni Muslims who could create there own autonomous region and stifle the Iranians Shiite Muslim influence in the region Erdogan will have a buffer zone full of Sunni Muslims that will answer to Turkey and can create a frozen conflict by using those Sunni Muslims as a reason to invade and control Syria a sovereign nations territory. This is a smart move use the guise of fighting the Kurds to install a bunch of Sunni Muslims that want nothing more than to remove Assad from power. The excuse to invade are the Kurds the real reason is to keep the Iranians and Assad’s Shiite influence away from Turkeys borders, the objective is to place Sunni Muslims in the disputed regions, it’s that simple.
More accurately Turkmen DAESH; its not enough to be Sunni.
I wonder if Erdogan will call it “New Turkey” like Putin named the region Novorossyia which means “New Russia” that the Pro Russian rebels seized in the Ukraine.
Tillerson:…”We’re very concerned with the situation in Syria. With Turkey, and…”.
Lavrov: “…Really? ….We told you. Go on…”
Tillerson: “The US State Department has urged its NATO ally Turkey to exercise restraint against our proxy ‘Border Force’ and…”
Lavrov: “… Hahahah!!”.
Tillerson: “…and in order to avoid civilian casualties… Sergei??…”.
Lavrov: “HAHAHAH!!!!
Not written by me, I found it in the comments
Has anyone read the article on the Daily Beast from Anna Nemtsova called “Russia’s Black Water Putin’s secret soldiers in Ukraine and Syria”? Everyone should read up on the Wagner Group classified Russian military personnel.