Lebanese officials seem to be united on the question of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s visit to Saudi Arabia, with President Michael Aoun confirming over the weekend that Hariri has been kidnapped, and demanding he be given immunity by the Saudis.
As details emerge on Hariri’s trip and surprise resignation, it’s not clear why there was so much ambiguity in reports. While foreign leaders are usually met at the airport by a delegation of royals, Hariri arrived in Saudi Arabia with only security forces waiting for him. They confiscated his phone, and scheduled his announced resignation the following day on Saudi state media.
Even Hariri’s decision to travel to Saudi Arabia looked suspicious, with officials saying he was “summoned” by the Saudi King. He was told he’d be meeting with the crown prince. Instead, he was given a resignation speech to read.
The Saudis are said to have become increasingly angry at Hariri for his reluctance to “confront” Hezbollah, which is a power Shi’ite political faction within Lebanon. The Saudis see it as a sign of weakness, though Hariri appears to have been loathe to risk more political uncertainty.
The Saudis are keen to replace Hariri with his elder brother Bahaa, who they believe is more loyal to the Saudi kingdom. Bahaa Hariri was already in Saudi Arabia when this whole mess started, and reports from the family are that Saudi officials have been asking the rest of the Hariri family to travel to Saudi Arabia to pledge allegiance to Bahaa.
Looks like the Saudi warrior prince is playing a rather transparent and clumsy gambit to compel Hezbollah and Iranian GRC retreat from Syria. Concern over war in Lebanon and Iran would surely cause them to withdraw from Syria right? Not.
The slow pace of the SAA in finishing off the Islamic State indicates Russia is taking care not to let Syria overstretch its limited capabilities, in the event of an abrupt withdrawal of Hezbollah and Iranian troops. Assad and Putin are already prepared for something big drawing away their regional allies and hollowing out their forces.
Is this it? Because if so doing all-out regional war and really endangering Lebanon and Iran is something they know Saudi Arabia can’t deliver on, even with Israeli and American help. For all the hype of Saudi military prowess over the last few years this would be a sorry endgame for KSA; they still can’t finish in Yemen and Yemen borders the Kingdom.
Historically, Saudi Arabia has always lost its battles with Yemen.
My bet is — MbS had no clue Hariri was invited. He is hostage of security forces loyal to their former boss — MbN. The Crown Prince cannot let the world know that his opposition is so brazen and dangerous, so must play along. But watch what is coming out of MbS court — statements that he is free man, and nobody is holding him. MbS continues typical Iranian and Hezbollah rants — while being really agnostic about Hariri and his objectives. We need to be careful as our neicon press is likely to attribute various statements to unnamed ifficials, or in some cases make it sound like it is coming from MbS, later to find out thst source is less reliable. For as long as we remember that neocosnd hates MbS, and is looking forward him being toppled by Army — now that some military heavyweights were arrested. This whole mess is a simple intelligence operation — and will in the end probably cost Hariri his life. If he ceases to be of any use alive. But what we see is Saudi internal strife, helped by intelligence operatives once under control of MbN. He himself is probably not involved — enjoying his retirement. It is the structure he left behind — along with some foreign assistance — that is at work here.
The reason for slow process of getting ISIS out of area across Euphrates is the game Kurds play — or SDF, official US partner. They somehow effortlessly go through ISIS held territory, to capture trategic townships and villages. Syrian Army has to fight ISIS — and then circumvent SDF captured points, and meander towards border. Because ISIS is still well supplied and provided with intelligence information, Syrian Army ended up losing already won Abu Kamal territory. The problem is — too narrow area of control, and the need to expand and secure territory. I did not find info about less Iranian or Hezzbolah support, but closer to Iraqi border one finds much more Iraqi Shia militias. The most encouraging signs are local tribes (our media will avoid mantioning thst they are Sunni), as they will challenge Kurdish occupation of their territory in the name of fighting ISIS. At this point neither US or Kurds are fighting ISIS — even though smack in the middle of their territory. All ISIS fighting is against Syrian Army. It is politically not correct to say that local Sunnis — long under ISIS rule, are now choosing to fight along Shia militia, rather then accept US/ Kurdish occupation.
As an update to back your observations, yes indeed the last Syrian IS holdouts are on the Kurdish/SDF side of the Euphrates as of the Wiki Syrian Civil War map, 8 December 2018. They seem to be in no hurry to finish the job.
The little red dots of the Syrian Arab Army have long finished their side of the Euphrates to the Iraqi border. The border is apparently not a priority for the SDF, as the little yellows dots of the SDF indicate.
Only a couple of isolated IS (black) pockets remain. Its the green ‘Opposition’ dots and grey Tahrir al-Sham that should concern now. Still quite a lot of them, especially concentrated in Idlib, and of course the border with Israel.
Giving in tho Saudi Arabia as if they were the exceptional country is very dangerous!!
The story does not hold water. In Saudi Arabia there is a deadly fight going in — and the opponents of the Crown Prince — former long term neocon favorites — are raising the stakes. They are losing, political purges of neocon friendly establishment under way — and s new crisis is needed to shake the new regime.
Let us review basics. Removal of MbN was met with shock and horror in neocon establishment. Remember, nobody in neicon land actually objected to Yenen war ir Qatar ultimatum — until their favorite was ousted. Then suddenly, they blamed MbS for all the sins — Yemen war, Qatar mess, Saudi finances. But MbS continued just like Trump to mouth off anti-Iranian bile, so this calmed neocons a bit. But as Qatar crisis was quietly resolved in Cairo, changing ultimatums to principles — the fury of neocons was taken out on Al-Sisi. It looked to them as a collusion betwen Al-Sisi and MbS. Bottom line, Iran is supplying Qatar with all the consumer goods. Turkey’s military base in Qatar doubled in size, and Qatar and Russia are talking military deals, as well as energy. It all became clearer when MbS — while on an anti-Iranian verbal war-path, moved rapidly against what neocon calls — dissent. Dissent — the hardcore of former MbN regime — is not really widespread. King would not have been in the position to petition the inheritance councilors to remove MbN — if he did not have a solid backing of majority of royal families.
The only thing neocon die hards can do is to take advantage of former MbN security connections — and come up with a crisis. It is hopefully clear that Hariri’s arrival was not result of MbS invitation. He came unsuspecting — and was greeted by security that took his phone. He was spirited off to meet another neicon fix it man in UAE. His announcement if resignation, as well as some statements were so jnusual in the choice of words andbphrases, that even his supporters in Lebanon claim are not oossjble to be Hariri’s words. Neocon hope was Lebanese civil strife. Supposedly bad Hezbollah was planning to kill him — and the expectstion was of rising anti-Shia anger and violence. But the announcement of Christian president, and Shia Soeaker of the Parliament, as well as the head of Hezbollah militia — all demanding that Hariri return, and that Saudi Arabia had no right to keep him hostage. As the initial plan did not succeed— now take two: it is bad Assad that wants him dead! As nobody believes that he is a free man — this accussation will not fair any better. MbS is staying clear of Hariri — but keeps on ranting against Hezbollah, Iran — and the whole Lebanon! The absurdity is sublime — as whiever is holding Hariri is not getting the saught after conflict. And MbS is not rattled — as the conspirators, whiever they are — are nit getting anythingbout of him, other then old anti-Iran phrases. What will they do with Hariri? E is hinting at withdrawing his resignation. But nobody will accept his continuing stay in KSA if he withdraws resignation. Their only hope is Israel — lately hinting at taking action in Syria. Good old Israel. The posibility of destroying terrorists in Syria, and peace achieved on terms not involving Israel’s patrons — is unthinksble.
But will Israel’s risk in attacking Russia be justified by some setbacks in Israel’s standing jn the Middle East? Very likely not. But Israel’s gambling propensities must be taken into account. They were looking at the major expansion of US power in the Middle East with the rise of ISIS. And now, looking at the defeat of “insurgencies” accross the board., Coupled with the yet unclear loss of Kurdustsn in Iraq — and the loss of Kurkuk where Israel invested in energy infrastructure while Kurds held Kirkuk
— and the dismal picture is clear.
But is it dire enough for Israel to risk its peace and territorial gains of Palestinian land. I would imagine not.
The Saudi’s are trying to provoke a reaction so they can justify going to war with Lebanon and possibly Iran, knowing full well that they can easily drag Trump into the ensuing conflagration which will inevitably spread across the Levant. This is the Saudi/Zionist/Neocon complex’s last ace in the whole as far as demolishing Syria is concerned. Don’t take the bait.