Reports citing US and European officials familiar with the situation say that last minute pushes to try to convince President Trump to back off his plans to decertify the P5+1 nuclear deal have failed, and he remains determined to take the move and send the deal to Congress for a vote.
Trump has been talking about decertifying the Iran deal for months, and is expected to make such an announcement any day now, with the latest certification deadline on Sunday. Since Iran is not violating the terms of the deal, Trump will argue the deal itself is no longer in America’s interests.
A White House release on the strategy goes back to old, obsolete allegations and vague allegations of Iran being a “threat,” and culminates in vague demands that Iran take unspecified actions to placate the US.
Others are saying, however, that Trump will stop short in laying out his “broad” strategy on Iran of arguing specifically for new sanctions that would violate the letter of the P5+1 deal, whether or not the US withdraws from the deal.
In the past Congress has been hostile to the Iran deal, but many see trying to withdraw at this point as potentially problematic, both because the rest of the nations involved appear set to leave the deal intact with or without the US, and because it’s going to harm US diplomatic credibility to withdraw so quickly from the pact.
We have proven time and time again that we betray wartime allies as well as peacetime allies- if we back out of this agreement with Iran it will only serve as a glaring reminder that any nation should think long and hard about partnering with the US for anything. If I were the leader of Nation X out there, I think I’d be calling up Moscow and Beijing and seeing what their plans are and consider signing on with them.
The first thing to remember is that just because Trump “decertifies” the deal doesn’t mean it will collapse. Everyone from Defense Secretary Mattis, Secretary of State Tillerson, U.S. and Israeli intelligence services, and the International Atomic Energy Agency agree: Iran is fulfilling its obligations. The only thing that will be blindingly obvious to every nation on the planet (including North Korea) is, don’t trust the USA to honor a deal. We will be increasingly isolated from the world community. It’s just the USA and Israel from here on in, folks. Guess the real PTB on the planet want it that way.
Imagine the rhetoric that will ensue. This will open the floodgates for warmongering talk. More divisiveness, just what we need.
Jimmy Carter is the President who layed the foundation for NOT honoring deals in 1979, when US military forces were withdrawn, diplomatic relations were severed, and the US-Taiwan Mutual Defense Treaty was scrapped. That still remains the only Mutual Defense Treaty in US history that was scrapped with a friendly nation. Taiwan’s lobby was a pipsqueak compared to Israel’s.
I’m waiting for Trump to start wearing a Make Israel Greater Again ball cap.
Will William Kristol now become Trump’s best friend?
Tillerson had it right, if he called Trump a moron. Sheldon Adelson would make a very very fantastic Secretary of State.
If Tillerson leaves Sec. of State, I am guessing Trump will appoint Sen. Tom Cotton to the post.
If this story is correct it’s a consistent pattern for Trump: he listens somewhat to the advisers he somewhat trusts, and that shifts the actions taken notably but not drastically. Trump mostly acts consistent will long-held positions. Screwing over us anti-interventionists is the biggest exception to that.
Trump has handed this off to Congress. Congress was a sure killer for the deal during Obama’s years, and many there still posture on it and would embarrass Trump about it.
However, it is no longer so certain what Congress will do. Whatever they do, it will be better politically for Trump than owning the problem himself.
For the rest of us? It depends on just how awful our Congress really is.