In a visit to Denmark today to talk about the Afghan War, Defense Secretary James Mattis managed to skirt the entire 16-year-long war against the Taliban in the conversation, and instead sought to focus on the fight against the small ISIS affiliate in Nangarhar, which he said was going well.
Mattis conceded that ISIS is “a determined enemy” but claimed the US and Afghan security forces had taken out two thirds of their forces, and had claimed much of their territory, alone with claiming to have recently killed the emir of the ISIS affiliate.
Mattis’ upbeat assessment, and talk of territory being recovered and the Ghani government’s growing acceptance, paints the whole situation in Afghan as improving, though of course the much bigger war against the Taliban is going increasingly poorly.
Even if ISIS is losing fragments of the couple districts they held, the Taliban controls more territory than they have at any other time in the war, and that’s a significant chunk of Afghanistan as a whole. The Taliban has been consistently taking territory from the Afghan government in several regions.
It is these mounting losses that have Mattis and the rest of the Pentagon pushing for more deployments of US ground troops to Afghanistan, to try to slow the losses. Having US and NATO troops headed to a losing battle in an unwinnable war would be unpopular, of course, so Mattis is instead trying to emphasize a much smaller ISIS conflict.
That ISIS conflict isn’t so great either, despite appearances, as the Afghan government has claimed ISIS to have been “wiped out” in Afghanistan multiple times already, and they keep coming back.
The man is an absolute genius. After 15 years of a war against fanatical, religious terrorists who are willing to die for their beliefs, he’s actually figured out that fanatical religious terrorists are a “determined enemy”. Such genius.
Kinda makes me wish I had a Bad Cop to overemphasize. Hmmm… If you could pick up a used Bad Cop on Ebay … then send him first to Libya then to Syria … then Egypt to blow up Russian stuff … then on to Afghanistan among other convenient places … and make sure he does things that intentionally infuriate and make him more interesting then the tired old previous brand name … then maybe I could finally blame him for my failure to ‘win’ either the War on Drugs or the GWoT.
Of course, this goes without saying . Once one manufactured enemy has lost its sheen as a public enemy number one, it is necessary to manufacture another. With “rebels” in Syria getting a bad rep for brutality — and inability to have “brutal dictator Assad” stick as a result, it was time to invent another. As Iraqi occupation ended in US troop withdrawal, it was necessary to get a sectarian fight going, so the already established Sunni “Awakening” set up by Petreaus, was taken over by sponsors in shadow, but overtly supported by Saudi Arabia and Gulf minions. Their Wahhabi style religiosity raised to the cruelty of a cult, made ISIS an instant brand name. Two birds by one stone. By having Baghdad bombed daily, and taking over Mosul and other Sunni countryside, the stage was set to oust the president of Iraq who would not sign unconditional surrender in the form of SOFA agreement. And as “rebels” in Syria lost in the game of “hearts and minds” after acquiring infamy by creatively killing Christians and Shia population, including organ eating — it was time for a new super villain. Enter ISIS, stage left. After surprising Iraqi Army, and storming their defenses, ISIS just strolled into Syria — surprisingly, first giving a thorough trashing to Kobani Kurds. What a coincidence. Kurds were up to that point working with Damascus, and were not working on their state, nor collaborating with “rebels”. It was Damascus that did what it can to fight off ISIS from its last remaining stronghold in the region, Hassakah. This is how eventually, Kurds were “befriended” by US “advisors” and weapons, and suddenly discovered the need for autonomy, set up political bodies, drafted constitution. Kosovo model down to the last detail. The subsequent Madison Avenue style of making a villain, all with fancy videos, executioner in a perfect villain black, leather holster — no sign of a typical ISIS look, consisting of headgear of different colors, and a cornucopia of clothes of all styles and manufacture. Yes, ISIS came on a scene with a bang, and vowed young and impressionable, vulnerable, angry and alienated Moslems from the margins of Western societies. And in the name of the freedom of speech, their sites were untouchable, their satellite communications working without a hitch, and fleets of white Toyotas cruised over the territory between Iraq and Syria. What a success! Iraq crawling back asking US help, Assad under the siege from all directions. Now, from Kurds that changed their allegiance, from old “rebels”, Al-Qaeda remakes, in the form of “Free” Syrian Army and Al-Nusra, and increasingly from local warlords that saw the handwriting on the wall, and hastily accepted Saudi preaching, cash and food. Along with the political cover in the form of Saudi sponsored High Negotiating Committee. With the stage set for taking down the “brutal” dictator — enter Russia. The stakes got higher. To insure that Turkey tows the line, irksome Erdogan was to be toppled by Soros and Gulen networks whose tentacles reached deep into the bureaucracy — from politics to academia, from police and prosecutors to military. But by May of 2016, Davutoglu government collapsed, and Erdogan party faction took over. The next day they restored relationships with Russia, and changed policy towards Syria. But only 6 weeks later, a daring coup aimed at assassinating Erdogan, and decapitating the new government — took place. The history of the coup is yet to be written, but it is obvious that Erdogan was alerted ahead of time, and was not in the sea resort where he was supposed to be, and the government officials, contrary to all logic were in the Parliament building on Friday — equivalent of Sunday. So, coming empty handed, and following Erdogan call to people to rise against the coup, backed up the prime minister’s statement that Government is safe. The last ditch, attempt at bombing the Parliament, was too feeble and too late, and the coup plotters, those not exposed in the process blended into the background. The stakes now got higher still.
After Russia tackled Al-Qaeda based groups, and Syrian Army liberated Aleppo, all that was left were Kurds and local militants under Saudi control, often with Al-Qaeda imbedded. But one by one, local groups peeled off from Al-Qaeda. Foreign fighters and their families were moved to Idlib.
And here we are. ISIS, in spite of its reduced manufactured sheen, will remain the cause of intervening in Syria, as well as an intruder into affairs when things do not go according to script. Case of Libya and Afghanistan.
In Afghanistan, the former nemesis TALIBAN, does not exist. What exists is the fight between the US controlled government in Kabul, and Afghani local governance, the tribes. As Kabul government saw the handwriting on the wall, and started looking to Russia and China for assistance — ISIS flew in on a magic carpet, to tackle stronger and stronger tribes. But what happened was not pleasant. Tribes tackled ISIS, and Pakistan got handle on terror barons that always supplied militants for Afghani adventures. Staring with Taliban. So, the peace that was breaking out — with stronger tribes, more independent Kabul, and castrated terror lords in Pakistan — the most undesirable of all circumstances. Even a peace conference in Moscow, with both Kabul government and tribes (we still call them Taliban), in attendance. So, a typical border raid, many dead — and voila, a problem between Pakistan and Afghanistan. And more troops to fight non-existent ISIS, a sign that US military is tiptoeing around tribal power, and afraid of offending them too much. Other then trying to use ISIS mercenaries to try to stir up tribal friction by doing some random killings. But it is possible that all actors in this drama already understand roles too well. Just like India and Pakistan not falling for cross border terrorist stunts — other then a lots of noise, it is possible that Kabul and tribes have reached sufficient understanding to avoid provocations becoming the cause of renewed warfare. It will soon be seen. In the shape of typical drama. Tribes signing up for “war on ISIS”, happy US generals planning some local actions, while new contracts will be signed for Chinese infrastructure work, or Russian energy projects.
What US needs to do is to reexamine its purpose for being there, but with neocons firmly latched onto US foreign policy wheels, and with good chunk of US ambassadors and NGOs really implementing neocon policies, not likely, In Afghanistan, just like in Macedonia, removal of US Ambassadors and Embassy staff that coordinates work of NGOs, as well as an investigation into Soros funded political activities — will be the key. It will take time. In the meantime, all Trump has at his disposal is the ability to order his defense secretary to define a mission, and generals to implement. If no victories emerge as a result, he can try somebody else to figure out how to “win”. Until they all admit the lack of purpose in staying there. Or find another excuse. Russia is back in Afghanistan — I can hear it already.
Mattis, Trump, and every other person who deals with the Taliban ought to read up on the classical Greek story of the Hydra because that is what they are dealing with in Afghanistan. How often have we been told by the Bush and Obama administrations that one of the Taliban’s heads has been chopped off? Apparently two new ones have grown in their place every time. And then there is the logic of the inside track. Whatever the Taliban may be it is homegrown whereas every government in Kabul is a NATO import.
Ideologies can only be defeated by other ideologies. It is clear that ours-whatever it is-does not do that.
The allied armies did not eradicate fascism in Germany. The German people did because in the end they preferred our ideology (and economy of course) to that of Hitler.
Its not Americas economy Germany controls almost all of Europe bub.
Sooner rather than later Isis will run america out of the middle east as in Korea and soon Afghanistan.