Turkish officials are reporting that a weekend offensive westward from Jarabulus has expelled ISIS from its entire territory along the Syria-Turkey border, a region spanning 91 km, and cut off their primary supply route into Syria.
Some 20 villages were captured by Turkey-backed rebels in the offensive, which was backed by both Turkish tanks and warplanes. The last of the villages, Mizab and Qadi Jarabulus, both fell Sunday afternoon, effectively removing ISIS from the border.
At least for now. The territory seized from ISIS is important, but appears to be razor-thin, with only the villages directly along the border being taken, and ISIS retaining some territory further south. The Turkey-backed rebels, primarily Ahrar al-Sham and a faction of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), have said they had only 1,000 – 1,200 troops in Jarabulus.
The offensive has linked those troops back up with what they still have in and around Azaz, which before the Turkish push was effectively their only territory. This leaves them a wide ribbon of territory they’ll be expected to defend, with the only towns of note on the easternmost and westernmost edges.
That’s no small task, with ISIS and plenty of other factions always angling for territory, particularly border areas. While Jarabulus is a big gain for this rebel bloc, the expectation from Turkey that they’ll hold this frontier could be more of a burden than they’re ready for.
Prime Minister Yildirim insists that the gains mean that the entire 91 km border zone Turkey wants in the offensive is now “completely secured,” and while they were never exactly clear about where that span of territory starts and finishes, it appears that their definition of “completely secure” is questionable, with the question of how defensible this territory is remaining to be seen.
How defensible is it? It depends on the following — was the Turkish PKK the conduit of weapons, supplies, money, fuel, transport, telecom and intelligence. Are then these dots of villages on the border just hubs, starting point for ferrying supplies safely to Raqqa, and from there to various points in Syria. Looking at the map of ISIS — from its beachhead on Iraqi border and Raqqa all you see are ribbon like tentacles that extend towards Syrian coastal regions. A classic supply strategy as not all can be cut off — and if one is it will be recovered as armies cannot control all the capillaries of such network. If the Turkish border is closede what will be the purpose of maintaining the territory there. Unless they can count on good intelligence to attack weaker spot and reestablish ghe supply route. But this is not the same as playing games with Syrian army overstretched across the country. On Turkish border a number of things are going on. Turkey is controlling their part of border preventing supply networks to operate. Erdogan’s visit of the place of terrorist attack on wedding party that included a great deal of outreach — empowered leaders in Kurdistan that want to work with the government. The announcement of 3.5 billion plan for reconstruction of war damaged areas is insuring the line up of business interest in Kurdish region to stop supporting armed groups. And while this will not prevent armament of Kurds via Iraqi Kurdish areas and their PKK groups in Iraq (incidentally US preferred groups) — it will prevent arms from going to Syria. And if nothing is coming — what will be the point in keeping the territory? They may test Turkish ability to stop the arms flow — especially if they are getting superior intelligence — but Turkey is not stupid either and has its own friends with intelligence capabilities. And may purposefully “overlook” some contacts to see where they lead.
We will find out soon enough if ISIS stays put in the area.
It may be more to slow Turkey down should it decide to go into ISIS heartland. For now ISIS has supply lines open to Iraq as it controls the border. The highways to Saudi Arabia are open as well. For as long as those tentacles supply the groups in Idlib and around Aleppo — the fight will go on. ISIS was and is weapons supplier and the death squads against those that do not tow anti-Assad line. If the Kurdish pipeline is closed — that will affect Aleppo as only those that join Turkey will have the means of fighting. Kurds if they remain along the same ribbon of territory controlled by Turkey may end up being unwitting support for ISIS in the same area. If they withdraw back to their region — at least they will not be in Turkey’s way. But knowing neocon mind set — .they will conive unintelligently — any excuse to suck up Kurdish forces into their orbit. And it will be as obvious as Hillary’s emails — but then their mentality is simple. In your face — who cares if you see the lies and deceptions. The point is — there is nothing you can do about it. You will all back off in the end you low energy grumblers. We know how to run things. There is just a slew if problems. Outside of US there are many who are waiting for them to step into ditches of their own making. And are not as plyable as domestic electorate. Their arrogance is costing us dearly in money, future commerce and reputation.