After occupying the city of Jarabulus, early operations by Turkish invasion forces in northern Syria focused on the immediate surrounding area, and while there was considerable expectation that the immediate move would be southward, against Manbij, that no longer appears to be the case.
Instead, Turkish strikes are being conducted further west, along the border region, focusing primarily on the ISIS forces in that area. Indications from Turkey-backed rebels are that their expectation also is to move westward, eventually aiming to take Marea and link up with allies in Azaz.
Turkish officials say that they are hoping US pressure can convince Kurdish forces to move back across the Euphrates River, abandoning Manbij and the surrounding area.
The US might well be all the more eager to help Turkey in this regard if the focus of their war is shifted away from attacking the Kurds, a US ally, and toward attacking ISIS. At the same time, Turkey and the Syrian Kurds don’t appear likely to be stable neighbors, meaning this may only forestall, and not prevent, fighting.
Turkey turns its attention westward in order to restore its trade with the rebels and ISIS to pre-coup levels.
No, this is not what is happening. Turkey has now YPG pinned to areas they with US help took, and ethnically cleansed. I do not expect that Kurds will abandon Manbij, also ethnically cleansed of non-Kurds. But by stating clearly that they need to withdraw back across Euphrates, it means that Kurds will not any more be US force on the ground, taking over area from ISIS and giving them to Kurds — so that they can get their reward, their own state. With their path blocked, Turkey needs to dislodge ISIS from border towns, and then — let us wait and see. Who is going to Raqqa? Who will be boots on the ground, as those that control the ground will have a greater say in what happens there. Turkey can go in, US will put on an act of being happy, but also Russian Air Force can assist, and Syrian forces are in new military base outside Palmyra. Everybody and their wife will be there — and we will see. The bottom line for Turkey is — they will battle ISIS and YPG. They can do one of the two things — after clearing and taking possession of border towns, Turkey can either join the end-game against ISIS, or it can go back and chase Kurds if they did not withdraw back across Euphrates. It will depend just what appears to be a priority. Kurds need to also decide if they are going to be the friend or a foe to Damascus in Aleppo district. Being hammered on two sides will be a losing proposition. The question remains — will they believe US to back them up to the hilt in political transition to get a larger areas then they should get. If they are sure of it — they will gamble on helping US in other ways. But I suspect that they may not. For one, Iraqi Kurds are telling them to chill; Turkish Kurds under current circumstances must be very, very careful. They can get most out of Erdogan in current circumstances if they chose to abandon the quest for separate state. They can reach a deal on autonomy, and be happy with it. Elsewhere, they will depend on Western or Israeli supply of arms and money — and that will not endear them to the region — be that Iraqi or Iranian Kurds. So, tough time for making decision. They went with US deal, as it looked safe. But with the coup’s failure, and resurgent Turkey, their gamble failed. Now is the time to touch base with other players.
Turkey will not give up. It has the support from everybody in this, except US. So, Kurds may rethink. Better a little bit of a pie, then a pie in the sky promised by US that will not control the ground.
Unless US changes its strategy in Raqqa. The end game is close, but the last inch is the toughest.
Sep 2, 2016 ISIS, Made In America – The David Icke
ISIS, Made In America – David Icke – First Broadcast August 15, 2014
https://youtu.be/6fckKTkpg8c