Over the weekend, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition which is overwhelmingly the Kurdish YPG but also includes some other smaller factions, has lost back much of the territory it gained around the Syrian city of Manbij in the face of a major ISIS counteroffensive.
SDF forces entered the city late last week, and US officials were proudly declaring ISIS fighters within had “nowhere to run.” Between car-bombings and ISIS infiltrators sneaking into the villages in the surrounding area, however, the tide of the battle was decisively turned.
Heavy fighting was reported inside Manbij at the same time as the villages were coming under attack, and the SDF fighters confirmed that they had been “evicted” from the town, though they insisted they intend to continue “liberating” it.
Manbij’s value to ISIS is primarily based on its location, on the main route between ISIS territory along the Turkey border, like Jarabulus, and the ISIS capital city of Raqqa, and the loss of the city would make traveling between the two areas much more difficult.
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The US will do what is necessary to maintain the balance and ensure that neither side wins much of anything. It can’t be dramatically escalated because WW3 is always going to be out of the question because of MAD. The only problem with the US doing it this way is that the people of the victim country will continue to be slaughtered for the cause.
That’s the nature of the US wars and there was only a short window of opportunity in which wars could be won. Both Russia and China have stood up and slammed that window shut now and we have returned to the cold war status quo. The PNAC agenda wasn’t accomplished in a timely manner and now it will drag on and cost the US much more than was in the plans.
Only Trump can do it quicker and make America great again. But Trump, as with all psychopaths, knows no fear and doesn’t take MAD into consideration. Psychopaths will fulfill their agendas no matter what the cosequences to society or anyone else. Just make America great again and then worry about MAD later.
I think Trump has a pretty good understanding of deterrence. He’s made an effort not to antagonise Putin. He only really picks on weaker countries, and the only enemy he says he will wage war on is ISIS.
He hasn’t make any effort to antagonize Putin. Right now he’s of no consequence to Putin. What Trump has done is say the words concerning Putin that appeals to the most voters. That has nothing to do with what he would or wouldn’t do if elected. And he’s likely said the opposite anyway, if one wanted to look into it in detail.
Same with ISIS. Trump says he will do what makes the most voters happy. Waging war on ISIS is still selling quite well with the American people. But in any case, Trump has said things about bringing the troops home that would make it impossible to continue to fight ISIS.