Camp Leatherneck and Camp Bastion, in southwestern Afghanistan, were handed over to the Afghan government today, with British officials touting it as the end of their involvement in the war, and NATO officials in general hyping it as part of the end of “combat operations.”
Yet this is a largely rhetorical distinction, as officials already secured an agreement from the Ghani government to continue the war through 2024 and beyond, and the camp closures isn’t changing that.
The real story is that 13 years in, the occupation is changing shape, with NATO vowing a much bigger focus on airstrikes as they try to limit the number of their own ground troops directly involved.
We’re already seeing a large increase in the number of airstrikes by US warplanes in Afghanistan, and the expected reports of civilian casualties that inevitably go along with that.
In limiting their own involvement on the ground, NATO is making the war less controversial in the West. Yet we must make no mistake that the war is still going, and still far away from a resolution.
The only resolution that seems possible to me is to abandon Afghanistan. However you may remember that the state the Soviet Union set up in Afghanistan outlasted the Soviets, and it did not receive the air support or money in prospect for this one. The initial Taliban siege of Jalalabad was unsuccessful. So I imagine that an attempt will be made to sustain the present state indefinitely. I suspect that, whoever eventually rules Afghanistan, the place will be an unpleasant tyranny, so I'd prefer to see the war end, and the people given at least a reasonable degree of peace and public order. However, no doubt I'm being too optimistic.