The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine is holding, but acrimony in the region continues to grow, with President Petro Poroshenko visiting the frontline city of Mariupol to talk up a massive military buildup in the area.
Poroshenko insisted tanks and howitzers have been ordered to add to the city’s defenses, and that the military was preparing to deliver a “crushing defeat” to the rebelsif the war resumes.
Poroshenko went on to insist there would be no territorial concessions to the rebels, though their push for secession seems to have stalled in favor of a push for increased autonomy within Ukraine, and assurances of rights for the nation’s ethnic Russian minority.
Russia convinced both sides to agree to the ceasefire last week, though NATO continues to express “skepticism” about any such deal and the US has been pushing for Ukraine to secure a victory over the rebels. Despite Poroshenko’s rhetoric, the hope of an outright government victory appears to have subsided as the rebels launched a successful counteroffensive, pushing them from the rebel capital of Donetsk.
It's clear that Poroshenko is playing for time hoping to resupply his badly battered forces. The rebels for their part want Mariuopol back. They held it until June when it was occupied by mostly the worst of the nationalist militias (Azov, Dnipro-1 battalions) who the rebels allege terrorize the ethnic Russians with the aim of ethnically cleanse the city from them.
I can find no reports of any "rebel offensive" around Donetsk, so I would assume it is a propaganda bluff. The very fact that Proshenko is in Mariupol indicates that the Ukrainian authorities are slowly taking back their country. Whatever "rebel" rump is left once the Russian inflltrators have withdrawn will shoot themselves in the foot if they obstruct or falsify the parliamentary elections on 26 October or proper international supervision thereof. According to my friend in Kharkov, there is no demand whatosever for "autonomy" nor is there any discrimination against the Russian minority or Russian speakers and, in fact, the whole "rebellion" looks more and more like a pure fabrication emanating from the US neocon propaganda factory, so I would guess that the pro-Russian faction will not do well in a free and fair election. At that point, any concessions made to the "rebels" will be purely cosmetic.
Brutal imperialism — How sweet it is
Federalist freedom-fighters are the good guys, fascist coup snipers are the bad guys and the goal is to see if defensive Russia can hold it’s defense, or if aggressive Empire USA can maintain it’s expansion.