The Obama Administration has repeatedly insisted that it has “no plans” to intervene militarily in Syria’s civil war, but as they have continued to openly back rebels forces, planning for the invasion has continued, treating the US-led invasion as something of a foregone conclusion.
Yet unlike Iraq, or Afghanistan, or even Libya, Syria is a nation with some very sophisticated defenses designed with the idea of a US or Israeli invasion particularly in mind, and very formidable air defenses.
And Russians. Syria is the site of a key listening post as well as the last Russian naval base in the Mediterranean in Tartus. Those air defenses, state of the art from the Russian perspective, also came complete with Russian advisers.
Which is going to really complicate the US invasion, if and when it happens. With Russian military advisers at the center of the air defense, and a NATO invasion certain to center on air power, the prospect of NATO killing Russian soldiers and prompting a Russian retaliation cannot be ruled out, and makes this invasion extremely problematic.
the good news, only a complete idiot would do it.
the bad news…. well i think we all know what it is.
the good news, only a complete idiot would do it.
the bad news…. well i think we all know what that is.
You don't say. I hope they have S400s in place to defend their base at Tartus. That would give the oh-so-brave fly boys something to think about. It will be so much harder than bombing wedding parties and mud huts.
This base is Russia's only base in the Med, which is one of the reasons why the US are keen on regime change. They hope that a pliant new regime will kick the Russians out.
"…This base is Russia's only base in the Med, which is one of the reasons why the US are keen on regime change. They hope that a pliant new regime will kick the Russians out…."
But that is, exactly the, point. The objective is to evict the Russians. If our arming the rebels fails to accomplish that then we'll do what we have to do – invade. We shall invade not in spite of the Russians being there but precisely because of their being there.
What do you think, Russians will salute your cowards???
You will be faced with 20000+ warheads that every general will be more than happy to ignite to destroy ther only evel on the planet. Of course the slogan of your WAR CRIMINALS will prove to be true:
You must destroy the planet in order to save it…
SillI think all of you are so brave witjh the defensless, but ordinary cowards towards the FIFTH column in tour country, not to say towards someone up to you ….
Marry Christmass ( I hope it is still alowed to celebrate it in your country)
I don't think it is much more than a fuel stop. Russian naval presence through the Black Sea is limited by treaty. If they wanted a better place they could always ask Cyprus to kick the British out. After Britain did nothing to help them when Turkey invaded, so their bases there are just relics of a dead empire.
I agree that the importance of Tartus is incredibly overstated –especailly so by NATO & the Americans who hope to spin it as a major defeat for Russia if they should abandon it and NATO manages to install a stooge in Damascus. It's a small port which couldn't accomodate an aircraft carrier or even a large battleship. I believe it is being intentioanlly overstated because if they should abandon it, it will look like a geo-political defeat for Russia in the eyes of the inetrnational communit, when it actuality,. Tartus is just a watering hole and has little strategic value for Russia.
america is going down the tubes and still has the lust to murder/destroy whatever comes in her path but will not tangle with Russia.
US and NATO have no qualms about killing anybody's soldiers, Russians included, that stand in their way. Russians themselves are hapless and easily both appeased and intimidated. Russians were in Kosovo to welcome NATO troops.
This article is nothing but a shill crying wolf. Preparing public opinion for what is inevitable: US/NATO invasion, fall of a sovereign state, Russians being evicted from yet another place and Moscow closer to the day when it will see itself bombed and foreign troops on its streets, something not seen since Napoleon.
Napoleon and Hitler did not do to well and Putin was not in charge during the kosovo mess.
yep cause we all know how great an effect on public opinion a website such as antiwar.com has.
also how easily it's readers can be convinced of the efficacy and ethicacy(ya it not a real word,yet) of military adventurism
Only the threat of Russian retaliation could keep Uncle Sam at bay. Do the lunatics in DC want to go that far?
Yes, they do. And, no, they are not lunatics.
They know exactly how to intimidate and to push the Russians around.
Russians are all mouth!
The "pushing around" doesn't appear to be working out that well in the security council does it? Since Putin's return to the Kremlin, he's been pretty consistent and steadfast on his opposition to what the west and its gulf despots are attempting to do to Syria, despite attempts in the US press to spin his statements distancing Russia from Assad – who was NEVER an allie . I simply don't know what else anyone expects from Russia (or China for that matter? their veto is just important as Russia's). They certainly can't go the war with NATO over Syria for obvious reasons. The American empire is over-stretched and unsustainable. The idea is to collapse it instead of starting a war that'll destroy the Northern hemisphere of the planet.
Push the Russians around? As in Georgia?
The mere fact that the US military are making contingency plans for an invasion of Syria doesn't make such an invasion a foregone conclusion. Military staffs plan for all possibile contingencies, even some fairly wild ones. Precisely for the reason Mr Ditz mentions, i.e. the Russian presence, I would regard an invasion of Syria as out of the question, if for no other reason that that is precisely the trap that the neocon manipulators are setting. That manipulation failed in Georgia, so I can't see it working in Syria.
I agree, which is why they are arming the terrorists in Syria to the teeth (in hopes of toppling Assad by proxy) and fighting tooth and nail to bring Russia onboard so that they can have a green light to invade. The west has misrepresented Russia's position from day 1 by calling Syria a major allie (It ISN'T) of the Kremlin and attributing positions to Russia's government it never took – we've seen several of their statements misquoted and taken out of context the past few weeks, which tells us more about the west and their reporting than Russias actual position. They aren't invading becasue they cannot risk getting into a potential shooting war with Russia which could spiral out of control and turn deadly. The US/NATO is adept at fighting piss poor third world countries with no means of defense, who are incapable of fighting back.
Your analysis an details are correct, but the conclusion is not.
You are correct in stating that Russia's positions and statements are misrepresented. Exactly the same was the case during the UN fight for the recognition of Kosovo. Russians were misquoted all the time and the State Department Department stated publicly that it's only a matter of time and the Russians would come around. For all intents and purposes that is exactly what the Russians did.
Russians should not support President Assad for the nebulous concept of friendship. You correctly point out they are not on particularly friendly terms. Russian, however, have vital interests in the region, Tartus base being only one. And yet they have shown neither inclination nor the skills to make the West understand that they would keep, and fight for, those.
Syria will fall to the West at a lot lower price than all of you think it will. The Russians will, once again, end up holding the bag.
The reality is that the US probably won't hit anywhere near the Tartus base. There's no need to do so because the air defenses for Tartus won't be utilized to defend Syria – they're there to defend the base. As long as the US doesn't attack the base, the Russians won't fire on US aircraft.
As for Russian advisers being hit while supporting Syrian air defenses, well, that's what they signed on for. Most likely they will be removed from those sites at Russian command before any US/NATO air strikes. That is why Russian ships are in the vicinity – to remove Russian personnel due to the threats of both the insurgents and foreign military intervention.
The US knows this and it will not effect US planning for the attack. The US and Israel have to degrade Syria's military, especially its missile arsenal, before an Iran war can be started. Nothing can be allowed to prevent that in the view of the US and Israel.