Libya Vote: Pro-NATO Bloc Could Win Plurality But Lose Election

Islamists See Path to Coalition Government

The final counts for last weekend’s Libya election still haven’t been released, but the claims of a major victory by the pro-NATO bloc are being tempered by defiance from the largest Islamist bloc, which is speculating that they could be the ones to form the government in the end.

Prime Minister Jibril’s bloc is about certain to end up with the largest number of seats of any bloc, but given the odd method of making up the 200-seat national assembly, with large number of seats reserved for non-party independent candidates, will fall well short of a majority.

Indeed, the Justice and Construction Party (JCP), the Muslim Brotherhood party which is running in second place, is expecting to enjoy considerable support among the independents, and say that Jibril’s National Forces Alliance (NFA) will have almost no support among independents.

This could reflect the outcome of Iraq’s most recent vote, in which the secular Iraqiya bloc won a solid plurality but was never able to form a government of its own, instead seeing the second and third place blocs coming together to rule.

Author: Jason Ditz

Jason Ditz is Senior Editor for He has 20 years of experience in foreign policy research and his work has appeared in The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times, and the Detroit Free Press.